Official Offseason Thread

[BeanieAntics]

Salary doesn't hurt the Rockies because you're still getting at least 3 of his prime years at market rate. Yeah the back end of the contract is worrisome but you're not gonna convince them to eat money by sending Wright who's stuff looks meh and Wilson who's been getting hit a lot.

What good is Riley's power in coors if he can't get the bat on the ball? Again. Ludicrous homer offer.

This is quickly evolving into another realm of stupid.

You're better than this. You're the Chosen One for pete's sake.

[BeanieAntics]

On paper it might seem like too much, but the Rockies DON'T have to give him up. He can be unhappy and still get paid.

I don't see this hostage situation being beneficial for an inquiring team. Rockies will give up money but they're gonna want real prospects, not someone like Wilson or Wright. And Riley could be a flash in the pan if the league figures him out.

This is just an insane take. It feels like you're making a concerted effort to be as anti-homer as possible, and its driven you to a point where you can't fairly evaluate our players. Not because you're overvaluing them like thethe, but because you've cunt-punted them into the realm of non-prospects. Riley is a former top 25 prospect with like 3 months of MLB experience and some concerning tendencies. That's still a valuable asset, although his value is more volatile than it was before his call up. Wright is currently a top 40-60 pitching prospect almost everywhere you look. I don't care what you think you've seen, that's a bonafide pitching prospect with a lot of value. Wilson is a 45 FV who has played peekaboo with top 100 lists for over a year now. He's the least valuable of the three, but still valuable.

[BeanieAntics]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Arenado has the opt-in?

I highly doubt his agent will agree with him that waiving the opt-in to pkay for a contender for a few years is a good idea and throw away the rest of the contract he has now.

Nolan got way way way alot of money. He either opts-in and keeps playing in Colorado unhappily during the rebuild, or he goes to another team and puts up less numbers and opts-in anyways.

I know Arenado isn't happy but I don't think he's im going to throw away almost 200,000,000 guaranteed by waiving the opt-in in a trade unhappy. He has leverage with the opt-in.

Rockies can't unload him unless they eat up money, and they're not gonna do that for maybe prospects like Wright and Wilson. They will want someone like Pache or Anderson who has more upside and have star potential. I'm not that high on Anderson.

What are you talking about? Him waiving the opt-OUT would not result in him voiding the rest of his contract after two years. He would just be waiving his ability to escape the contract and enter free agency. That would cost him some theoretical money, but nowhere close to 200 million dollars.

[Metaphysicist]

To go back to Donaldson for a moment. I think 4/$92M is actually a pretty good deal for him. I'm just a dumb message board person, but I would have been perfectly happy with him coming to to the Braves for that.

1) His bWAR last year was 6.1. At ~$8m/WAR, which is about what fangraphs seems to be using for 2019, that means he was worth ~$50m last year alone. His fWAR was 4.9 which would be ~$40m.

2) His projection for 2020 on FG is for 5.3 WAR, or ~$42m (plus inflation!). Even with a steep aging curve after that (say losing 50% value per year), it would be hard to be overpaying (in the projection) by all that much over the course of the contract.

3) I think we tend to underrate just how good JD has been. He has been playing like Hall of Fame caliber^TM 3B. Look at the HOF leaderboards and sort by WAR7 (link). The median HOF WAR7 is 43. Donaldson is already above that at 43.8, despite only having 6 full seasons. Essentially, that means over the past 7 years, he has produced the peak of the average HOF third baseman, even though the 7th season being counted is only partial. That's just bonkers good.

Here are the other modern 3B who have passed 43 WAR7 and how they performed from 34-37:

Edgar Martinez (lol, "3B"):

WAR7: 43.7
Age 33 WAR: 6.5
WAR 34-37: 22.4
Value: $179M

Scott Rolen:

WAR7: 43.7
Age 33 WAR: 3.4
WAR 34-37: 11.4
Value: $91.2M

Chipper:

WAR7: 46.8
Age 33 WAR: 4.1
WAR 34-37: 20.8
Value: $166M

Adrian Beltre:

WAR7: 49.3
Age 33 WAR: 7.2
WAR 34-37: 24.7
Value: $198M

MEDIAN:

Age 33 WAR: 5.3
WAR 34-37: 19.8
Value: $158M

There is always the chance of injury or whatever, yadda yadda, etc, but even if he's "only" as good as Rolen, that contract will be fine.

[Heyward]

This isnt Matt Chapman pre-arb. Arenado has a huge contract. Riley/Wright/Wilson/Ender is more than fair, even if an overpay.

[Buzzworm]

While I’d love to have Arenado and think it would be worth the investment in money and prospects I don’t see the Braves taking on that kind of contract.Unless the Rockies trade off money for better prospects then it’s not gonna happen.I don’t think they would be willing to do that since the PR hit would be massive with their fan base.
We really haven’t spent stupid money since BJ Upton and since then we have ran away from any long term commitment unless it’s a asinine deal like we gave Albies/Acuna.If we had different ownership I’d think different but it’s not gonna happen and Kris Bryant is the clear Braves way trade more likely and realistic to happen since it’s no commitment and comparatively cheap.

[Super]

Unless the Rockies trade off money for better prospects then it’s not gonna happen.

well, yeah, that's the whole thing. there's no way the Braves take on that contract without getting $ back, even if the prospect cost is low. i don't think they'd want to carry that either way.

[nsacpi]

If Arenado were a free agent would the Bravos sign him to anything close to his current contract. Don't think so. If a trade is to happen the Rockies will have to kick in some dough or find some other way to alter the financial terms.

[Snowman]

The Rockies may have blown it. Sounds like they just dangled him out there without any reasonable plan to actually move him.

Hopefully AA and crew see something they can work with in regards to Hernandez. Maybe the folks on this site who are good at dissecting stats can find something positive. The opportunity cost is certainly a real factor, but one that exists for any of our potential #5 starters.

His only positive pitches have been his curve and slider, but many veteran pitchers used to talk about how those two particular pitches don't really work well together, how you only have one or the other working on any given day and you throw the one that is and not the other. I have no idea if this is also true of King Felix, he could be an outlier for all I know, but if he isn't, it's hard to see his path back to success,

[UNCBlue012]

Just give me Acuna RF-Albies 2B-Freeman 1B-Arenado 3B-Markakis LF-Swanson SS-TD/Flowers C-Ender CF. I'd construct it differently but that's a damn good lineup.

[NYCBrave]

I follow this prospect site and they did an article on players they expect big years from in 2020. Here are the blurbs from the two Braves listed. Good to get an unbiased take from a non Braves fan.

https://prospects365.com/2020/01/20/...-redraft-value

Tucker Davidson, SP, Atlanta. Age: 24

I don’t like Davidson’s 2020 outlook as much as I love Kyle Wright’s (scroll down for his write-up) 2020 outlook, but my gut tells me the left-hander will play a role in Atlanta at some point this season. The way I see it, Davidson is currently the 7th best starting pitcher within the Braves’ organization, behind Mike Soroka, Max Fried, Cole Hamels, Mike Foltynewicz, Kyle Wright and Ian Anderson (Sean Newcomb will reportedly battle with Wright and Ian Anderson for the fifth spot in the Braves’ rotation, but I suspect his optimal role is in the bullpen). Anderson is not currently on the 40-man roster and has only made five starts in Triple-A; of course the right-hander will eventually slot into the Braves’ starting rotation, but I believe it’s likely that Davidson, Wright and Bryse Wilson (and maybe even Patrick Weigel) will all receive opportunities before Anderson this season. I loved what I saw from Davidson last season in my Southern League looks, and he’s worked hard this offseason to add additional velocity to his already-underrated fastball. The long-term role is a little less clear, but I’m fairly confident the 24-year-old will log innings from Atlanta’s rotation at some point this season.

Kyle Wright, SP, Atlanta. Age: 24

My favorite inclusion on this list is also the highest ranked. Every time I revise my 2020 prospect list (published next month for non-VIP members), I find a reason to move Wright up a few spots. You can study the profile months, but Wright’s outlook basically boils down to this fact: if you believe in him, you better grab him—in any and every format—before Opening Day 2020. Tasked with out-dueling Sean Newcomb and Ian Anderson (I discussed the pitfalls of his 2020 outlook above) for the fifth spot in the Braves’ rotation, there’s no question this is an extremely important season in Wright’s professional career. Luckily for the 24-year-old, I believe he’s currently the odds-on favorite to secure the final rotation spot in Atlanta—for multi-faceted reasons that extend well beyond Wright himself. If I’m correct and the right-hander is given the first crack at taking the ball every fifth day, monitoring the early returns of his pitch usage, spin efficiency and command will likely serve as the preludes to his season-long viability. I say it every time I discuss Wright and I’ll leave you with the thought now: the 24-year-old’s possesses some of the best pure stuff in all of baseball.

[striker42]

I think people expecting King Felix to be another Anibal are a bit optimistic. First of all, resurgences like Anibal had with us are not all that common. More importantly, Anibal's peripherals were better than Hernandez's. The year before coming here, Anibal had a K/9 of 8.89 and a BB/9 of 2.48. That's pretty solid. His problem was the HR ball (2.22 per 9 in 2017) which he was able to control here (down to 0.99 per 9).

Hernandez, on the other hand, had a 7.16 K/9 last year and a 3.14 BB/9. That goes along with a 2.13 HR/9. I don't really see Anibal part II in Hernandez.

That being said, a minor league contract at a million dollars is kind of a no brainer. If you set your expectations reasonably and hope he can be a depth piece, maybe give some young arms more time in AAA, or maybe even be an okay 5th starter, I don't think you'll be disappointed. The bar for a number 5 starter in the league is pretty low.

Ultimately, a million and no 40 man roster spot for starting pitching depth isn't a bad investment.

[nsacpi]

To go back to Donaldson for a moment. I think 4/$92M is actually a pretty good deal for him. I'm just a dumb message board person, but I would have been perfectly happy with him coming to to the Braves for that.

1) His bWAR last year was 6.1. At ~$8m/WAR, which is about what fangraphs seems to be using for 2019, that means he was worth ~$50m last year alone. His fWAR was 4.9 which would be ~$40m.

2) His projection for 2020 on FG is for 5.3 WAR, or ~$42m (plus inflation!). Even with a steep aging curve after that (say losing 50% value per year), it would be hard to be overpaying (in the projection) by all that much over the course of the contract.

3) I think we tend to underrate just how good JD has been. He has been playing like Hall of Fame caliber^TM 3B. Look at the HOF leaderboards and sort by WAR7 (link). The median HOF WAR7 is 43. Donaldson is already above that at 43.8, despite only having 6 full seasons. Essentially, that means over the past 7 years, he has produced the peak of the average HOF third baseman, even though the 7th season being counted is only partial. That's just bonkers good.

Here are the other modern 3B who have passed 43 WAR7 and how they performed from 34-37:

Edgar Martinez (lol, "3B"):

WAR7: 43.7
Age 33 WAR: 6.5
WAR 34-37: 22.4
Value: $179M

Scott Rolen:

WAR7: 43.7
Age 33 WAR: 3.4
WAR 34-37: 11.4
Value: $91.2M

Chipper:

WAR7: 46.8
Age 33 WAR: 4.1
WAR 34-37: 20.8
Value: $166M

Adrian Beltre:

WAR7: 49.3
Age 33 WAR: 7.2
WAR 34-37: 24.7
Value: $198M

MEDIAN:

Age 33 WAR: 5.3
WAR 34-37: 19.8
Value: $158M

There is always the chance of injury or whatever, yadda yadda, etc, but even if he's "only" as good as Rolen, that contract will be fine.

Interesting that none of Chipper, Rolen, Martinez or Beltre make the list of "most similar" players that Baseball Reference has for Donaldson.

Their list of players who statistically most resemble Donaldson after age 33:

Kevin Mitchell (913.7)
Jeromy Burnitz (903.3)
Jose Bautista (903.0)
Wally Post (900.2)
Vinny Castilla (898.9)
Phil Nevin (898.8)
Josh Hamilton (898.6)
Todd Frazier (896.8)
Jason Bay (893.0)
Reggie Sanders (892.8)


Similarity score in parens. The methodology is not the greatest. But still interesting.

[weso1]

Some things that worry me about Donaldson are his violent swing and the somewhat aggressive nature in which he plays the game. Maybe he's had to play this way because of his size, but I worry how that translates for him at the end of his career. Will his body hold up playing like that?

[Hudson2]

Some things that worry me about Donaldson are his violent swing and the somewhat aggressive nature in which he plays the game. Maybe he's had to play this way because of his size, but I worry how that translates for him at the end of his career. Will his body hold up playing like that?

Prince Fielder had that violent swing and everybody knew he couldn’t hold up. I thought about that with JD too.

[Hudson2]

If the Rocks would kick in 60 million that would leave around 26 per year for the next 7 years. That would warrant a package with Anderson or Waters but not at his current salary. If anybody can’t see that then well I can’t help ya.

[TheBravos]

Arenado deal is becoming more interesting to me IF we could acquire him at a low prospect cost. That’s the only way....but IF that is the case....this would be a very good thing.

[weso1]

Arenado deal is becoming more interesting to me IF we could acquire him at a low prospect cost. That’s the only way....but IF that is the case....this would be a very good thing.

Sign Ozuna and you can deal Waters and Riley for Arenado to really get the cost down.

[Southcack77]

Correct me if I'm wrong but Arenado has the opt-in?

I highly doubt his agent will agree with him that waiving the opt-in to pkay for a contender for a few years is a good idea and throw away the rest of the contract he has now.

Nolan got way way way alot of money. He either opts-in and keeps playing in Colorado unhappily during the rebuild, or he goes to another team and puts up less numbers and opts-in anyways.

I know Arenado isn't happy but I don't think he's im going to throw away almost 200,000,000 guaranteed by waiving the opt-in in a trade unhappy. He has leverage with the opt-in.

Rockies can't unload him unless they eat up money, and they're not gonna do that for maybe prospects like Wright and Wilson. They will want someone like Pache or Anderson who has more upside and have star potential. I'm not that high on Anderson.

Choosing to waive the opt-out would still leave him with 200m guaranteed dollars.

What he would be waiving is the opportunity to go back into the marketplace for a new deal if he chooses.

I think most financial advisors would tell him not to agree to waive the opt out unless he was compensated for its value.

For me, I don't really see how waiving the opt-out actually makes him all that much more attractive to a team that is trading for him. That would have to be a club that is really sold on Arenado being, most likely, the highest paid player on their club for the foreseeable future. I doubt that is really Atlanta's bag.

[Metaphysicist]

Interesting that none of Chipper, Rolen, Martinez or Beltre make the list of "most similar" players that Baseball Reference has for Donaldson.

Their list of players who statistically most resemble Donaldson after age 33:

Kevin Mitchell (913.7)
Jeromy Burnitz (903.3)
Jose Bautista (903.0)
Wally Post (900.2)
Vinny Castilla (898.9)
Phil Nevin (898.8)
Josh Hamilton (898.6)
Todd Frazier (896.8)
Jason Bay (893.0)
Reggie Sanders (892.8)

Yeah, Donaldson honestly has a weird career arc. His overall counting stats, which sim scores are based on, are much lower than those guys at the same age. That's because all three of them were established players by 20-23, but Donaldson didn't play his first full season until 27. So you end up with a bizarre career shape that is essentially all peak, at the normal ages, but with nothing coming before. So for his sim scores, he's being compared to a group of guys with similar counting stats (like PA) at his age, who are almost uniformly going to be a worse player pool.

Mitchell - Last season >100 G was at 29.
Burnitz - Already 0 WAR player by 33.
Bautista - Actually Interesting comp
Post - Done by 33
Castilla - Already SVOD by 33
Nevin - Only had more than 450 PA 3 times in his whole career.
Hamilton - Honestly, a pretty interesting comp outside the baggage.
Frazier - Same age as Donaldson now, just a uniformly worse player
Bay - Done by 33
Sanders - A uniformly worse player than Donaldson, but was still relatively valuable from 34-37

Jose Bautista is really the only interesting comp, as he was also a later bloomer who was still elite at 33. Some similarity in the violence of the swings. Maybe that could a realistic downside; but I think Donaldson's "downside" value is still higher since his is a good defensive 3B rather than an all-bat DH.

If you look at his similar career batters (total, not by age) though, you see some midcareer guys who started off as immediately great, just at a younger age: Harper, Arenado, Machado. I think it will be very interesting to see how the HOF treats him when the time comes around, especially if he can pull off just one more elite season.