Official Offseason Thread

[Tapate50]

When are we renaming the list page. It is no longer 2019 and we didn’t take the Neck step.

Sloppy Admin right there

[Carp]

Yeah, not sure how it can be argued that a WS was in our lap... Wash absolutely dismantled the Cards

I mean we probably matched up as well as anyone given how much we see them, but it would have been tough to beat them even with a healthy Freddie.

[BeanieAntics]

Happens. Flip a coin and sometimes it will come up heads three straight times.

Bumgarner's HR/FB rate isn't really as bad as you'd think it'd be for someone who gives up as many home runs as he does. He had the 44th worst HR/FB rate among qualified starters in 2019. Bumgarner's HR problem last year was his complete inability to induce ground balls at all. He had the 3rd worst ground ball rate of all qualified starters, trailing only Matthew Boyd and Reynaldo Lopez (both of whom gave up a boatload of homers last year).

I don't think Bumgarner is going to be like the worst starter in the league next year or anything. But I do think that he'll be the same ~.320 xwOBA pitcher that he was in Oracle, it will play worse at Chase, and he'll be below league average next year according to most metrics. And that's not what you want when you're paying a guy as much money as the D'backs are over 5 years. I also think he'll get progressively worse, like most pitchers his age do.

[mfree80]

When are we renaming the list page. It is no longer 2019 and we didn’t take the Neck step.

I'd love to see Wren get a little less credit.

[zbhargrove]

Happens. Flip a coin and sometimes it will come up heads three straight times.

Or in MadBum's case, it could just match up with the rest of his trends

[clvclv]

Or we let them mature and get a better read on what we have. Our team is young and cheap (the core). Every prospect that pans out is another dollar saved in free agency. If we hit on one or two more then we are ridiculously set up for a long run of competing. I love what we have done with no long term commitments.

We're likely going to finally start working some of the arms in starting in the pen over the next couple of years IMO. With two rotation spots taken by Soroka and Fried, you just kind of have to think there's a big trade (even if it's a bit of an overpay) or a pretty significant free-agent signing coming up next winter (Paxton maybe?) to lock down the third spot and so many kids needing to be added to the 40-Man Roster over the next couple of years a bit of a shakeup sorta HAS to be coming. Anderson and Muller have to be added next winter, and Wright, Wilson, Touki, and Ynoa will only have one option left after this season.

[bravesfanMatt]

So I used a very sophisticated formula based on hours of research to final get the Braves win total for 2020. 101 wins. That is 53 wins above replacement for our 26 man roster. Don’t question my methods, just trust me.

[nsacpi]

Bumgarner's HR/FB rate isn't really as bad as you'd think it'd be for someone who gives up as many home runs as he does. He had the 44th worst HR/FB rate among qualified starters in 2019. Bumgarner's HR problem last year was his complete inability to induce ground balls at all. He had the 3rd worst ground ball rate of all qualified starters, trailing only Matthew Boyd and Reynaldo Lopez (both of whom gave up a boatload of homers last year).

I don't think Bumgarner is going to be like the worst starter in the league next year or anything. But I do think that he'll be the same ~.320 xwOBA pitcher that he was in Oracle, it will play worse at Chase, and he'll be below league average next year according to most metrics. And that's not what you want when you're paying a guy as much money as the D'backs are over 5 years. I also think he'll get progressively worse, like most pitchers his age do.

You make some good points. The groundball rate is not random like the HR/FB rate and THAT will translate badly in moving from Oracle to Chase.

[nsacpi]

So I used a very sophisticated formula based on hours of research to final get the Braves win total for 2020. 101 wins. That is 53 wins above replacement for our 26 man roster. Don’t question my methods, just trust me.

Your methods have my full endorsement.

[Metaphysicist]

Over the course of his career, Bumgarner has actually pitched 10% better at Chase than at the average park, and he’s always been a flyball pitcher. But you guys are really make this more complicated than it is with MadBum. Here are his ERA+ numbers:

2016: 146
2017: 128
2018: 116
2019: 107

And he’s entering his thirties. And he’s missed a bunch of time 2 of the last 3 years. Parsing his peripherals isn’t gonna tell you anything that isn’t obvious on the surface: he’s a risk.

[Hulavol]

So I used a very sophisticated formula based on hours of research to final get the Braves win total for 2020. 101 wins. That is 53 wins above replacement for our 26 man roster. Don’t question my methods, just trust me.

I fully trust in your methodology!!

[CyYoung31]

I think the ball will go back to being unjuiced this season and HR’s will be down across the board.
Way too many people noticed MLB juicing last season and I believe they make a change this season so there’s not as much media attention.

Why wouldn’t MLB want the attention?

[Southcack77]

Over the course of his career, Bumgarner has actually pitched 10% better at Chase than at the average park, and he’s always been a flyball pitcher. But you guys are really make this more complicated than it is with MadBum. Here are his ERA+ numbers:

2016: 146
2017: 128
2018: 116
2019: 107

And he’s entering his thirties. And he’s missed a bunch of time 2 of the last 3 years. Parsing his peripherals isn’t gonna tell you anything that isn’t obvious on the surface: he’s a risk.

I agree. He's a big risk. And not that good. His contract looks like something they will regret.

But I don't think moving out of San Francisco is going to mean he's a 6 ERA guy. Park factors don't account for that much variance. He might We'll be worse.

I don't do board bets but am happy to acknowledge that I'm wrong if it happens.

[Buzzworm]

Why wouldn’t MLB want the attention?

Because Manfred denied purposely changing the baseballs.It would be a bad look if it was on purpose which in my opinion the playoffs clearly showed it was.The postseason seemed like a different game.
I think that’s why they juiced the ball of course.
People love homeruns.They have pretty clearly throughout the history of baseball generated more ratings and interest.Having said that i believe most hardcore fans hate the history of the game being changed.Just as the steroids era hurt records, so has the juiced ball.Guys that are mediocre players are putting up numbers that some all stars of other eras couldn't reach.Yes, players have gotten bigger, faster, stronger and the games tactics have changed to more of a three outcome game but the juiced ball was pretty clearly the main reason guys were going yard on normal fly balls.

[bravesfanMatt]

Why do I want to convert this convo into something like this....

He’s got juiced balls
She’s got juiced balls
But MLB has the juiciest balls of them all.

[Hulavol]

Why do I want to convert this convo into something like this....


He’s got juiced balls
She’s got juiced balls
But MLB has the juiciest balls of them all.

Cue the devil horns ...

[Carp]

Live chat with Steve Adams at MLBTR going on right now. Had this to say regarding Senzel:

On the flood of Nick Senzel questions I'm receiving:

I think it's likeliest that the Reds keep him.
I don't think they'd move him unless they were getting an immediate upgrade to a weak point on the roster (shortstop, catcher)
The Reds aren't shopping him/desperate to move him, and nothing has characterized their feelings toward him as such.
If you're putting Kyle Seager, Brandon Belt or any type of unwanted contract in the hypothetical deal, you're almost certainly off base on the type of arrangement to which they'd be open.



So yeah, anyone thinking a trade with Ender and prospects makes sense for them is being pretty foolish.

[jpx7]

Live chat with Steve Adams at MLBTR going on right now. Had this to say regarding Senzel:

On the flood of Nick Senzel questions I'm receiving:

I think it's likeliest that the Reds keep him.
I don't think they'd move him unless they were getting an immediate upgrade to a weak point on the roster (shortstop, catcher)
The Reds aren't shopping him/desperate to move him, and nothing has characterized their feelings toward him as such.
If you're putting Kyle Seager, Brandon Belt or any type of unwanted contract in the hypothetical deal, you're almost certainly off base on the type of arrangement to which they'd be open.

Alex Jackson?

[Snowman]

Because Manfred denied purposely changing the baseballs.It would be a bad look if it was on purpose which in my opinion the playoffs clearly showed it was.The postseason seemed like a different game.
I think that’s why they juiced the ball of course.
People love homeruns.They have pretty clearly throughout the history of baseball generated more ratings and interest.Having said that i believe most hardcore fans hate the history of the game being changed.Just as the steroids era hurt records, so has the juiced ball.Guys that are mediocre players are putting up numbers that some all stars of other eras couldn't reach.Yes, players have gotten bigger, faster, stronger and the games tactics have changed to more of a three outcome game but the juiced ball was pretty clearly the main reason guys were going yard on normal fly balls.

For the record, there was a recent study that showed the postseason drop in carry was well within the norms of other seasons' October drops. The air gets colder, the ball doesn't carry as well. So while I most def believe MLB jas been purposefully juicing the ball (they did so for a few years after the '94/'95 strike, as well), I do think it likely the noticeable postseason drop wasn't the ball but our minds noticing the lack of carry more than other years because we had become fixated on the ball.

[Super]

Why do I want to convert this convo into something like this....

He’s got juiced balls
She’s got juiced balls
But MLB has the juiciest balls of them all.

truly amazing song writing. if only artists these days could come up with such treasures.