Official Offseason Thread

[tululush]

It is not misinformation, just interpretation. If he re-signs with us, we would not get the pick from the other team because he didn’t sign with them. Thus we effectively lose that pick by re-signing him.

It's a pick we wouldn't have received had we not been in the position to re-sign him, or if we didn't offer him a QO. So yes, we lose a pick, but a pick we wouldn't have had had he not been our player, or had we not offered him a QO. So we either sign him and stay status quo, or we don't sign him after we offer him a QO and gain a pick. It's definitely up for interpretation, but we're not losing a pick we already owned. We're losing a pick we would have received.

[Southcack77]

This isn’t how it’s worked for many years now. Picks do not change hands. Whether or not you understand the rules, or the logic behind the statement you’re attempting to mock is irrelevant.

The Braves will get a pick in the 30s if JD signs elsewhere for $50M+, and a pick after the second round if he signs for less than $50M. Therefore, once he declines the QO it will cost the Braves that pick to resign him.

Any other team that signs him, for any amount, will lose picks based on their market size and luxury tax situation.

It is not complicated logic to understand that as of right now the Braves have a draft picks, and they will lose that draft pick if they sign JD. Couple that with the fact AA hasn’t shown a willingness to give aging players multiyear deals, and it’s not to to reason out why JD probably isn’t coming back.

What he said:

I posted this earlier today:

• A team that neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection in the following year's Draft as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick. The 13 clubs that fall into this category during the 2019-20 offseason are the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Mariners, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers and White Sox.

Examples: A team with one pick in each round of the 2019 Rule 4 Draft would lose its second-round pick. A team with two first-round picks would lose its second-highest first round-pick.

The Draft-pick compensation is also based on the financial status of the free agent's former team.

If a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer signs a contract that is worth at least a guaranteed $50 million in total value, and his previous club is one of the teams that receives revenue sharing, said club will be given a compensatory pick immediately following Round 1 in the next year's Draft. If such a club loses a free agent for a contract worth less than a guaranteed $50 million in total value, the club will receive a compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B (which follows the second round).

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

[CrazyTrain]

I’m no sales engineer, and even I understand what’s going on...

The Braves, as of the moment JD signs with another team, will get a pick in the 30s.

If the Braves resign him, they do not get that pick.

Therefore, logic dictates resigning JD will cost them a pick in the 30s, and must be factored into his overall cost. This calculus changes if he is sitting on the market in February and it’s clear no other team is going to give him $50M. At that point, his draft cost to the Braves is a pick in the 60s, and it might make sense to grab him on a short term deal.

My understanding of the situation was already confirmed via other posts. Thanks, though.

[CrazyTrain]

While maybe true, we've invested alot of resources in SP.

Have some sort of Wright, Touki, Wilson, Anderson, among others who can fill in and dont cost 12 million. Julio didnt even start a playoff game, that should have told us everything about Julio.

I'm just saying that I'm taking this to mean that we are going to either trade for a starter with some control or sign a FA with a longer term deal. I could've seen picking up Julio's option and finding another 1 year deal to keep a seat warm for one of the AAA kids. Now we have two holes to fill.

[Southcack77]

He's basically saying we dont lose a pick, and we dont gain a pick if we sign him.

But as great as JD was, signing him for his age 34 and 35 seasons is something i'm not sure AA would do.

I am interested what AA does if he doesnt pay JD, needs to add to the lineup somehow. You pretty much have to go after Grandal as long as the years arent crazy.

I feel like the pick has to be a secondary concern at best.

The primary objective for the organization has to be improving the team that is in the thick of a contention window.

I would think that the contract fit has to be the biggest concern.

But it seems to me that any market deal over 50m is likely to be at the edge of what the Braves are capable of doing. That might be the point where the pick acts as a tie breaker.

If we're talking about a pick in the 70s we're talking about a contract that would more likely work for Atlanta financially.

[Southcack77]

I'd lay a small bet on the Braves signing Alex Wood.

[Heyward]

Ten players tendered qualifying offers today:
Josh Donaldson, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole, Jose Abreu, Jake Odorizzi, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Will Smith, Marcell Ozuna.
They have 10 days to accept or reject the $17.8 million offers.

[tululush]

Ten players tendered qualifying offers today:
Josh Donaldson, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole, Jose Abreu, Jake Odorizzi, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Will Smith, Marcell Ozuna.
They have 10 days to accept or reject the $17.8 million offers.

Being creative, has anyone accepted, taken less, but then asked for more years added on to the back end that are inflated in an attempt to help the team in year 1 of their contract?

[Southcack77]

Ten players tendered qualifying offers today:
Josh Donaldson, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole, Jose Abreu, Jake Odorizzi, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Will Smith, Marcell Ozuna.
They have 10 days to accept or reject the $17.8 million offers.

Will Smith is the only one of these that is a little surprising to me.

[Heyward]

Will Smith is the only one of these that is a little surprising to me.

After they didnt trade him, not really, but cant see anyone touching him and losing a 2nd round pick.

[CyYoung31]

Just putting that out there. Our boy Kurt Suzuki

As if we didn’t already know that Trump was ****ing minorities in the ass.

[striker42]

Just putting that out there. Our boy Kurt Suzuki

I don't see what the big deal is. This is clearly an innocent Titanic reenactment.

[weso1]

Wow.. Suzuki with the double Nazi Salutes.

Cancel the Nats. That's the final solution.

[thewupk]

As if we didn’t already know that Trump was ****ing minorities in the ass.

Well it's now confirmed. Suzuki is a good catcher.

[Southcack77]

After they didnt trade him, not really, but cant see anyone touching him and losing a 2nd round pick.

I guess the play for the Giants is to spend money to buy some kind of potential return on him, but seems like he should just take the QO.


Seems like it would have been a hell of a lot cheaper to trade him at the deadline though. It's hard to see how his value on a QO deal would be higher than it was last season.

[Hudson2]

Will Smith would be nuts not to accept that QO. But if he doesn’t then he will definitely be there after the draft next year.

[Heyward]

Spotrac has us at 87 mil with arb projections factored in. If OD payroll is close 130ish, that's around 45-50 mil to spend, but same holes as last year still, SP/cOF/3B/C. BP is a little more stabalized with Greene, MM and Newk now, Luke as well. And some others as well.

[Enscheff]

Spotrac has us at 87 mil with arb projections factored in. If OD payroll is close 130ish, that's around 45-50 mil to spend, but same holes as last year still, SP/cOF/3B/C. BP is a little more stabalized with Greene, MM and Newk now, Luke as well. And some others as well.

I had the Braves right around $100M before dumping Julio and the shenanigans with Flowers and Markakis. I’m estimating that cuts ~$15M from the 2020 payroll, with 0s in several roster spots.

So yeah, ~$45M to fill at least 1 SP, 3b, C and something resembling a RHH OFer.

At this point Grandal has to be priority #1, but who knows if he will take a 1-2 year deal with a high AAV, or if AA will suddenly decide to give an aging player 3+ years after not doing so with Cutch or Brantley or Grandal last year.

[Enscheff]

Ten players tendered qualifying offers today:
Josh Donaldson, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole, Jose Abreu, Jake Odorizzi, Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Will Smith, Marcell Ozuna.
They have 10 days to accept or reject the $17.8 million offers.

Bumgarner and Odorizzi are the type of pitchers who may have a hard time finding a deal with a QO attached. They could very well end up going the DK route, and that’s a definite possibility for the Braves and their stable of unproven young pitchers.

Wheeler is a good bit better than those 2, but could be a guy who prices himself out of a nice contract and ends up taking the DK route.

I think the plan with Julio was to cut him loose, find the best available non-QO guy to replace him, and then let the young arms fight over the 5th slot.

Or...AA has a trade in mind for a Paxton level arm.

[Enscheff]

I'd lay a small bet on the Braves signing Alex Wood.

Wood, Hamels, Ryu.

All 3 are guys without a QO and could be possibly had on short deals.