Official Offseason Thread

[Chico]

Not 1 thing about the Bumgarner story sounds like AA.

Leaking info of who he's going after
Signing an aging starter to a multi year deal
Giving up a pick to do so

[clvclv]

Except it's not semantics. Pache and Anderson are basically our top 2 prospects, and are valued at 60 FV and 55 FV respectively. Waters is a 55 FV and Wright is a 50 FV. You're talking about a difference of roughly 30 million in surplus value, at least going by the prospect rankings as we currently know them. Waters and Wright is nowhere remotely close to enough for Snell. That's barely half the surplus value of Snell, whereas Pache and Anderson is close to 90% of the surplus value of Snell, depending on how much surplus value you assign to him. I assumed roughly 104 million in surplus value based on 16 WAR over the next 4 seasons.

Again, you're missing the point. I'm not arguing which prospects have to be involved in the deal. If it takes Pache and Anderson, so be it. By the end of the 2020 season, there's not going to be much of a legitimate argument that any of our Top 10 prospects other than Langeliers and Contreras NEED to spend another full year in Gwinnett.

The time to *hit or get off the pot is here for AA - even after stockpiling all those arms, it doesn't look like we will have developed a true "Ace" from within. I'm as high on Soroka and Fried as anyone, but they just don't look like that guy yet. Can they get there? Possibly, but the clock's ticking faster - particularly if the intention is to win a Championship while you still control Freeman. Wright has floundered. Anderson has plenty of doubters. Wilson doesn't look like that guy. I'm not sure anyone has ever looked at Muller as one. That's not to say all of them won't turn out to be good Pitchers - they may well all turn out to be strong #3s or even better.

Signing Ozuna to pair with Acuna on the corners leaves you Ender and one of Pache or Waters to play CF when he walks or is traded. If it's Waters, so be it. Signing Bumgarner leaves you three of Wright/Wilson/Anderson/Muller for rotation depth. If adding Snell and Bumgarner buys you another full year of development before one of Wright/Wilson/Muller needs to be able to step into the rotation to replace Folty, I don't think that would cost people much sleep.

Ideally AA signs someone to a smaller/shorter deal than Bumgarner's projected to get, but if all it costs to add him and Snell to our rotation is an OF prospect we won't have room for when he's ready if Ozuna is signed, one of our top pitching prospects who hasn't yet shown he's capable of being a #3 (at best) at this level, De La Cruz, and a 3rd round pick in June, I could live with that.

[Carp]

I think you also have consider where a team is. Tampa will not trade Snell or Morton unless it is an overpay by the other team. This simply reflects the fact that they are in their window of contention. They have won 90 and 96 games over the past two years.

Detroit otoh has motivation to move someone like Boyd. Every day they hold on to him there is some depreciation.

Cleveland is sort of in between. Their window of contention will close in a couple years unless they find ways to acquire players with upside and many years of control left. So they are likely open to moving Lindor who has 2 more years before hitting free agency.

Those are the facts of life when trying to match up for trades.

While true, the Rays are already pushing the higher limits of their payroll before they make any off-season moves. With their pitching depth, I think it's pretty likely that they will look to trade either Snell or Morton for cost controlled major league/major league ready pieces. They missed Snell for a good part of this year and still won 96 games after all.

[clvclv]

Not 1 thing about the Bumgarner story sounds like AA.

Leaking info of who he's going after
Signing an aging starter to a multi year deal
Giving up a pick to do so

As for this, that's not ALL entirely true.

The Bumgarner story seems to be a reporter trying to connect the dots on his own, and he cites a "source inside the organization" as where his info is coming from. He could think MadBum makes sense on his own (for whatever reason) and his "source" is an intern - he doesn't mention that it's coming from the higher-ups. He bought the intern a beer and says "I'm hearing the Braves are in on Bumgarner, what do you think?" The intern says "Makes sense, they jumped out there and signed Donaldson and Mac last winter before anyone started hanging holiday decorations."

You didn't need a leak to believe someone when they said "betcha the Braves go after Donaldson and Mac" at this time last winter - that wasn't a secret you'd want to make sure someone in the Trump Administration didn't know about. I'm also willing to bet no one needs to see a report that quotes an unnamed upper-level management source to guess that we've already been on the phone with Moose's people.

Would it make more sense to hold off on adding one of the SPs? Sure, but they've already announced they're shopping for an upgrade over Julio by letting him walk - you're not getting one of those on a one-year deal unless you want to wait until June to sign him.

[Enscheff]

Snell has over 100 million in surplus value. So yeah I'd day the Rays would definitely turn down Waters and Wright for Snell, even considering he's coning off an injury.

Snell is gonna cost Pache and Anderson to start with. That gets you about 90 million. Then we'll have to include another top 10 prospect like Wilson or De la Cruz.

Sigh, just when I pay the man a compliment he goes and drops a 1000 word stupid bomb like that.

The Tays aren't trading Snell. Holy hell.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Why would/did AA leak a rumor of any kind to a west coast reporter?

[Carp]

Sigh, just when I pay the man a compliment he goes and drops a 1000 word stupid bomb like that.

The Tays aren't trading Snell. Holy hell.

I think they are more likely to trade Morton if they trade either, but I absolutely think there is a good chance they will make one of the 2 available this off-season given their payroll constraints and overall pitching depth.

[UNCBlue012]

I'm so stoked to pay Mad-Bum $72 million over four years! The attached pick is a winner too! LOVE IT!!!!

[Enscheff]

I think they are more likely to trade Morton if they trade either, but I absolutely think there is a good chance they will make one of the 2 available this off-season given their payroll constraints and overall pitching depth.

The Rays operate in a very formulaic fashion, trading away aging stars when they have 2 years of control or less remaining.

While Morton fits that description, Snell doesn’t.

I would not be surprised to see the Rays trade Morton this off season, but more likely at this deadline if they fall out of contention.

If they make Morton available, I like the idea of dealing with the Rays because they value 2 win young players more than pretty much any other MLB team. The Braves are loaded with guys like that, and could probably get Morton with a package that doesn’t include any elite prospects.

[Snowman]

Can't we just sign Nate McOut out of retirement and trade him for Morton?

[Jaw]

Given their performance in Gwinnett last year I'm surprised that anyone is convinced that either Pache or Waters will be able to help Atlanta next year.

[Enscheff]

Given their performance in Gwinnett last year I'm surprised that anyone is convinced that either Pache or Waters will be able to help Atlanta next year.

Pache reached AAA at 20 years old and was almost 7 years younger than the average AAA player. He posted a stat line about 8% below league average, and none of his peripherals suggest it was flukey in any way.

Players at that age and that level of athleticism tend to improve by leaps over the course of a couple months. Nobody should be surprised if Pache morphs into a true talent .900 OPS guy at the AAA level after a couple more months in AAA. At that point he would be ready for the next challenge if a need arises.

Waters had a much more unsustainable BABIP and serious K issues, so he’s a good bit below Pache in my opinion. I wouldn’t count on him for much of anything in AAA.

[Enscheff]

Hamels is open to a 1 year deal with a contender.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...-phillies.html

To me, that makes him the favorite to fill the 4 spot in the Braves rotation.

[nsacpi]

Hamels is open to a 1 year deal with a contender.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...-phillies.html

To me, that makes him the favorite to fill the 4 spot in the Braves rotation.

Yeah. Hamels makes a lot more sense than Bumgarner.

[clvclv]

Sigh, just when I pay the man a compliment he goes and drops a 1000 word stupid bomb like that.

The Tays aren't trading Snell. Holy hell.

Sucks to take a shot at me only to find out you took it in vain, don't it?

I never said they'd trade Snell, that was him.

[nsacpi]

Sucks to take a shot at me only to find out you took it in vain, don't it?

I never said they'd trade Snell, that was him.

a special counsel has been appointed to investigate the matter

[Enscheff]

This the sentiment I’ve expressed with Grandal for months, and maybe it allows AA to sign him:

23JusticeDJ
2:48 Will it take a fourth year to land Grandal? Braves have a glaring need offensively at C.

Steve Adams
2:49 We debated this a lot. Grandal made pretty clear last winter that annual value is extremely important to him. I can see him considering, say, 3/60 more appealing than 4/68. Hell, I'd really put him to the test and offer him something like 2/44 if I were a team with a enough short-term payroll space.

[Enscheff]

Sucks to take a shot at me only to find out you took it in vain, don't it?

I never said they'd trade Snell, that was him.

Maybe so. Teaches me not to skip over your 1000 word novellas.

[UNCBlue012]

Hamels is open to a 1 year deal with a contender.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...-phillies.html

To me, that makes him the favorite to fill the 4 spot in the Braves rotation.

AA just came.

[Super]

Grandal for 2/44, Hamels for 1/? and Mous for 2/20 and i feel great. is the payroll there for that?