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Thread: Braves Sign Will Smith

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    My theory:

    AA is secretly working out a deal for Matt Chapman that will be announced shortly. This trade is what allowed us to use the extra funds on a luxury piece like Smith.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    So, let's pretend for a moment the Braves payroll is getting a 30 million opening day bump up to 150 million and that's why we splurged on Wilson. Would the elite FA's now become a possibility for us? I assume still no, but Rendon is pretty much the perfect fit for our needs and makes a division rival weaker in the process. Would still leave us with roughly 20 million to find a catcher, a SP, and possibly another OFer.
    Rendon is the play if we are serious about leveraging the cheap deals for our young elite talent. It could also possibly signal that the intention is to give Anderson the fourth starter job and let a battle commence between Newk/Wilson/Davidson/etc.... in addition to some bargain veteran deals.

    AA has to be planning for Pache and Waters in the OF or at least one of them. That gives the team back enders/necks money as well starting 2021

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    My theory:

    AA is secretly working out a deal for Matt Chapman that will be announced shortly. This trade is what allowed us to use the extra funds on a luxury piece like Smith.
    That's a rich deal unless we take some salary back.

    Wright/Riley/Waters I would think at least.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Flags fly forever! Who cares about future seasons? Win now!!

    Dombrowski just lost his job 1 year after winning the World Series because the Red Sox got tired of looking at that flag in less than 1 year...and all he did was exactly what everyone wanted him to do...

    Maddon lost his job after the Cubs failed to win another WS, just a few short years after being the genius that guided them to their first title in forever. I guess the Cubs got tired of staring at a flag too.

    But yeah...flags fly forever...too bad the jobs of the guys who won those flags don't last even a few years.

    It's not smart for GMs in the long run, but I'd much rather have been a Cubs or Red Sox fan the last 7 years than to have been a Dodgers fan.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    That's a rich deal unless we take some salary back.

    Wright/Riley/Waters I would think at least.
    Salary back? What?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Salary back? What?
    Absorb one of Oaklands bad contracts to reduce surplus value.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    It's not smart for GMs in the long run, but I'd much rather have been a Cubs or Red Sox fan the last 7 years than to have been a Dodgers fan.
    Dont see how this can be ignored.

    Braves are also still in the brand building phase in Cobb. The long term benefit of building a winner now cant be undersold. A whole new generation of Brave fans are being ushered into baseball which results into future revenues. There are many more variables to consider than just surplus value and draft picks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Absorb one of Oaklands bad contracts to reduce surplus value.
    Gotcha.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    So, let's pretend for a moment the Braves payroll is getting a 30 million opening day bump up to 150 million and that's why we splurged on Wilson. Would the elite FA's now become a possibility for us? I assume still no, but Rendon is pretty much the perfect fit for our needs and makes a division rival weaker in the process. Would still leave us with roughly 20 million to find a catcher, a SP, and possibly another OFer.
    Braves are currently sitting right at $100M with holes at 3B, C, and SP.

    Bowman thinks they will give JD $25M in 2020, and for however long it takes to get him. So that's another high priced aging player on the roster. The saving grace is 1B will open up once Freeman's contract expires, so JD can move over there if needed.

    That puts the payroll at $125M with remaining needs at C, SP, and a pretty mediocre OF. Bowman just said Grandal isn't likely, so I imagine it's something like a trade for Contreras, or signing someone like Castro.

    Now they are sitting at $130M+ and still need a SP. It should be no surprise Bowman just floated names like Miley and Porcello in his most recent mailbag because that's the aisle they will be left shopping in now that they splurged early on a 30 year old BP arm.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    My theory:

    AA is secretly working out a deal for Matt Chapman that will be announced shortly. This trade is what allowed us to use the extra funds on a luxury piece like Smith.
    I do love the idea of dealing with teams like the Rays and A's whose financial situations force them to value cost controlled 1-2 win players more so than the rest of the league because the Braves have a lot of those guys who are MLB ready.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I do love the idea of dealing with teams like the Rays and A's whose financial situations force them to value cost controlled 1-2 win players more so than the rest of the league because the Braves have a lot of those guys who are MLB ready.
    What do you see as a deal that works?

    Its amusing to look at oaklands contracts. Other than Davis they dont have anything long term and no albatrosses. Absorbing Davis is out of the question so it's a true surplus value deal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    It's not smart for GMs in the long run, but I'd much rather have been a Cubs or Red Sox fan the last 7 years than to have been a Dodgers fan.
    Which team would you rather be a fan of moving forward? Because the Dodgers are still squarely in strong contention while the Cubs/Red Sox are either exiting their window or struggling to keep it open.

    The Dodgers have done exactly what you're supposed to do. Put together a team that can consistently make it to the playoffs and compete for a WS without sacrificing too much future value. It just hasn't worked out for them yet, but most of that just has to do with bad luck rather than some notion of them not "going for it"

    The Cubs, on the other hand, massively overpayed for a half season of a reliever and got VERY fortunate that it happened to work out for them. Then, they did the exact same thing the next year, except it was for an 2 win starting pitcher on a good contract and that deal isn't look nearly as good. The Cubs window would likely still be wide open if they had kept guys like Eloy or Gleybar. And its absolutely not clear that they would have failed in their world series pursuits had it not been for Aroldis Chapman or whoever.

    Give me the Dodger's model any day of the week.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Jackson's xwOBA was included to illustrate these BP arms were all below elite level guys. The market at the time dictated those guys were worth 3 years, and almost none of them are turning out to be good contracts. The market today dictated Smith was worth 3 years, just like those guys. Folks can attempt to talk themselves into this being a good contract, but history suggests 3 year deals for BP arms in their 30s almost never work out unless they are truly elite...and usually not even then.

    Teams with $180M+ payroll can afford to give out these types of contracts to stabilize the BP in the short term at the expense of losing payroll flexibility in the long term. Teams like the Braves with $130M payrolls probably shouldn't, especially when they have a ton of arms capable of becoming the next Will Smith for league minimum.

    That list is populated by filthy rich teams, and not-rich teams too stupid to know any better. Which group do the Braves fall into? AA just spent 2 years not being stupid, and this move is completely out of character based on what we've seen.

    And we aren't even discussing the fact the Braves gave up what is now reportedly their 2nd highest pick to make this deal happen, and will only be getting a pick in the 70s back when/if they lose JD.

    All around a terrible signing (I'm being overly dramatic, I know)...unless payroll suddenly jumps to levels we never imagined and they can easily cover a BP splurge like this.
    This signing is absolutely out of character with what we've seen from AA. Until now he's chosen making no moves over making the wrong moves. It makes me think there's something that we're not seeing yet. I just don't think there's any way AA would hamstring himself in filling holes at catcher and third by throwing this amount of money at a reliever (that wasn't a huge need). He either has a plan to competently fill holes on the cheap and so has the money to spend like this or payroll isn't as much of a problem as it has been.

    If payroll is still an issue and signing Smith will hurt us in filling other holes, then this is a really bad move. It would just be a bad move very much out of AA's character though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    This signing is absolutely out of character with what we've seen from AA. Until now he's chosen making no moves over making the wrong moves. It makes me think there's something that we're not seeing yet. I just don't think there's any way AA would hamstring himself in filling holes at catcher and third by throwing this amount of money at a reliever (that wasn't a huge need). He either has a plan to competently fill holes on the cheap and so has the money to spend like this or payroll isn't as much of a problem as it has been.

    If payroll is still an issue and signing Smith will hurt us in filling other holes, then this is a really bad move. It would just be a bad move very much out of AA's character though.
    Signing Will Smith smells of a GM who suddenly feels pressure to win now, and is no longer concerned about the health of the club 3+ years from now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Which team would you rather be a fan of moving forward? Because the Dodgers are still squarely in strong contention while the Cubs/Red Sox are either exiting their window or struggling to keep it open.

    The Dodgers have done exactly what you're supposed to do. Put together a team that can consistently make it to the playoffs and compete for a WS without sacrificing too much future value. It just hasn't worked out for them yet, but most of that just has to do with bad luck rather than some notion of them not "going for it"

    The Cubs, on the other hand, massively overpayed for a half season of a reliever and got VERY fortunate that it happened to work out for them. Then, they did the exact same thing the next year, except it was for an 2 win starting pitcher on a good contract and that deal isn't look nearly as good. The Cubs window would likely still be wide open if they had kept guys like Eloy or Gleybar. And its absolutely not clear that they would have failed in their world series pursuits had it not been for Aroldis Chapman or whoever.

    Give me the Dodger's model any day of the week.
    I just don't see how you can say going for it was a bad strategy when it clearly got them their desired outcome: a WS championship. Likewise, the Dodgers have put together a great strategy for long term success, and have nothing to show for it.

    Yes, luck has a little to do with it. The Dodgers have a great team. And in 2018 they certainly made a good effort to go for it with the Machado trade. But there have also been times when they've hesitated to make some trades as well.


    Again, all things considered, I'd much rather have been a Sox/Cubs over the last 7 years. I'll take a WS and a few years of floundering over constantly being let down every year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Which team would you rather be a fan of moving forward? Because the Dodgers are still squarely in strong contention while the Cubs/Red Sox are either exiting their window or struggling to keep it open.

    The Dodgers have done exactly what you're supposed to do. Put together a team that can consistently make it to the playoffs and compete for a WS without sacrificing too much future value. It just hasn't worked out for them yet, but most of that just has to do with bad luck rather than some notion of them not "going for it"

    The Cubs, on the other hand, massively overpayed for a half season of a reliever and got VERY fortunate that it happened to work out for them. Then, they did the exact same thing the next year, except it was for an 2 win starting pitcher on a good contract and that deal isn't look nearly as good. The Cubs window would likely still be wide open if they had kept guys like Eloy or Gleybar. And its absolutely not clear that they would have failed in their world series pursuits had it not been for Aroldis Chapman or whoever.

    Give me the Dodger's model any day of the week.
    Yeah, this notion of looking at things with benefit of hindsight as justification for moves is the epitome of small minded people.

    The Cubs went all in and won a WS at the expense of future seasons. So did the Red Sox. Just because it worked out in 2 instances does not prove "going for it" is a good strategy.

    What the Cubs and Red Sox did prove was that "going for it" is costing leadership their jobs fairly quickly after they "went for it"...even though the moves actually won a WS.

    I guess staring at those flags isn't as amazing for as long as folks claim.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    I just don't see how you can say going for it was a bad strategy when it clearly got them their desired outcome: a WS championship. Likewise, the Dodgers have put together a great strategy for long term success, and have nothing to show for it.

    Yes, luck has a little to do with it. The Dodgers have a great team. And in 2018 they certainly made a good effort to go for it with the Machado trade. But there have also been times when they've hesitated to make some trades as well.


    Again, all things considered, I'd much rather have been a Sox/Cubs over the last 7 years. I'll take a WS and a few years of floundering over constantly being let down every year.
    They have nothing to show for it?

    The Dodgers have an elite team making tons of money moving forward, and leadership isn't being fired.

    The Cubs and Red Sox have a declining team moving forward, but a flag to look at...and leadership is being fired.

    Stare at that flag though...yay!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Signing Will Smith smells of a GM who suddenly feels pressure to win now, and is no longer concerned about the health of the club 3+ years from now.
    Certainly a consideration. Matches up with the Melancon trade as well. Throwing caution to the wind in an attempt to win it all now. I guess the best you can say is at least it's only money and not valuable prospects.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    What do you see as a deal that works?

    Its amusing to look at oaklands contracts. Other than Davis they dont have anything long term and no albatrosses. Absorbing Davis is out of the question so it's a true surplus value deal.
    Look to the JD trade for a good idea about the A's quantity over quality preferences.

    Having said that, Chapman isn't even arb eligible yet. It makes little sense for the A's to trade him now.

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    A trade with the Dodgers for Turner (assuming they acquire someone else to play third) would make a lot of sense. One-year deal at a good price for a still very productive power hitter.
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