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Thread: FG 2020 WAR projections

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    FG 2020 WAR projections

    FG currently has the Braves projected for 40.2 total fWAR, which is an 88-92 win team depending on what season win total you use for a replacement level team (typically ranges from 48-52). I would feel comfortable calling the current Braves roster a ~90 win true talent team.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=C

    Breaking the roster down by position:

    C: 3.2 WAR (#6 in MLB) - As expected this is an effective timeshare with Flowers and d'Arnaud. d'Arnaud has the "room for upside" thing going for him, so while it's easy to take the over on this projection, it's just as easy to foresee him being injured like he usually is and coming in below this projection. Verdict: ACCURATE.

    1B: 4.4 WAR (#1 in MLB) - This is all Freeman, and nobody is going to argue with him being among the best 1B in the game. We expect a healthy Freeman to produce ~5 WAR, and the threat of injury is all that drags his projection down a bit. Verdict: ACCURATE.

    2B: 4.2 WAR (#2 in MLB) - The Ozzie Albies show is being projected to be better than everyone not named Altuve...who beats him by a negligible 0.1 WAR. As with Freeman, this is what we expect from a healthy Albies. Verdict: ACCURATE.

    SS: 2.0 WAR (#22 in MLB) - A disappointing season by Swanson with a few games of Camargo sprinkled in make up this below average output for the position. Either Swanson performs better, or a contending Braves team gets an upgrade at or before the deadline. Verdict: TOO LOW.

    3B: 1.8 WAR (#23 in MLB) - Lots of crap here, but only because AA hasn't addressed the position yet. Even a scrap heap move like Shaw will improve this, and JD will boost the position to the #7 spot or so. Verdict: TOO LOW.

    LF: 1.1 WAR (#22 in MLB) - Another collection of junk, and maybe AA is shopping for improvements. My guess is AA fixes this position in the next couple months, at the deadline, or Pache/Waters show they are ready for action. The sooner a RHH is added, the better. Verdict: TOO LOW.

    CF: 2.1 WAR (#12 in MLB) - The semi platoon of Ender/Acuna ends up being decent. I want to say Ender goes back to being a 3 WAR guy, but the chances he is in true decline are very real. There is hope Pache is ready towards the end of the year, but LF sucks too, and he is only 1 player. Verdict: ACCURATE.

    RF: 3.5 WAR (#6 in MLB) - The Franchise ranks high in RF despite being projected for 100 PAs in CF. I expect a 5+ WAR season with MVP consideration for Acuna, but a nice portion of that will probably be credited to CF, so as far as RF is concerned, this seems about right once factoring in the obligatory injury concerns. Verdict: ACCURATE.

    SP: 13.1 WAR (#13 in MLB) - The Soroka/Folty/Fried/Hamels quartet leads this group with contributions from the young MiLB guys. We all hope a young arm takes a step forward, but the injury volatility with pitchers is always going to hammer their projections. At the end of the day the chances of the Braves actually advancing in the playoffs will hinge on 1-2 of these guys pitching like legit TOR SPs in October, but the overall projection seems fine. Verdict: ACCURATE.

    RP: 4.3 WAR (#6 in MLB) - AA's splurge in the BP is projected to result in a very good one. I want these projections to be right, but BP arms are scary. Verdict: ACCURATE.

    Overall: An 88-92 win team as it currently stands, and AA hasn't addressed 3B yet. I expect him to add 1-3 wins at that position in the next few months. I don't expect him to allow SS and/or LF to drag the roster down all year either, so that's probably 1-2 additional wins depending on when he upgrades SS/LF and how major the upgrade is. Verdict: 92+ wins in 2020.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 12-08-2019 at 01:43 AM.

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    Which team has the best ratio of highest projected WAR to payroll spending? Rays?
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    Kyle Wright 0.5 WAR. I'll take the under.
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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    Kyle Wright 0.5 WAR. I'll take the under.
    I think Wright puts it together this year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    Kyle Wright 0.5 WAR. I'll take the under.
    Really? I think he is better than what he has done so far. I agree that he will regain some of his luster this year.

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    Should also be noted that the Braves are currently projected to be tied for 3rd in the NL with the Cubs at 40.2 WAR. Mets are a little higher and the Dodgers of course are the class of the NL. Depending on what the Nats do I would say the Mets are currently the biggest threat to the Braves.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Should also be noted that the Braves are currently projected to be tied for 3rd in the NL with the Cubs at 40.2 WAR. Mets are a little higher and the Dodgers of course are the class of the NL. Depending on what the Nats do I would say the Mets are currently the biggest threat to the Braves.
    Disagree on the Mets, losing Wheeler is a big blow, especially if they rumored to replace him with Porcello.

    Nats losing one of Rendon or Stras would be a big blow, dont think they could effectively replace both.

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    If the Braves resign JD or somehow got Rendon (1% chance) then nobody in the division touched us and only the Dodgers are our real competition imo. If we somehow traded for Marte also then Iíd take us over the Dodgers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Disagree on the Mets, losing Wheeler is a big blow, especially if they rumored to replace him with Porcello.

    Nats losing one of Rendon or Stras would be a big blow, dont think they could effectively replace both.
    They have Wheeler's replacement in Stroman. It's the exact reason they traded for him. Both projected to be 3+ WAR pitchers in 2020.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    If the Braves resign JD or somehow got Rendon (1% chance) then nobody in the division touched us and only the Dodgers are our real competition imo. If we somehow traded for Marte also then Iíd take us over the Dodgers.
    The takeaway is the Braves are a very talented team already, and are only a payroll jump away from being truly elite. If AA is allowed to crank up the payroll, and does it without taking on horrible long term contracts, the Braves can be on the cusp of the the same echelon as the super teams.

    If there was ever a time to blow the roof off the payroll, giving Rendon 4-5 right now is the time to do it. The choice between 4-5 years to Rendon vs 3-4 years to JD should be an absolute no brainer, even if Rendonís AAV will be at least $10M higher.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 12-08-2019 at 12:06 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    The takeaway is the Braves are a very talented team already, and are only a payroll jump away from being truly elite. If AA is allowed to crank up the payroll, and does it without taking on horrible long term contracts, the Braves can be on the cusp of the the same echelon as the super teams.

    If there was ever a time to blow the roof off the payroll, giving Rendon 4-5 right now is the time to do it. The choice between 4-5 years to Rendon vs 3-4 years to JD should be an absolute no brainer, even if Rendonís AAV will be at least $10M higher.
    100% agreed. Bringing in Rendon on a 4-5 year deal would put this team right in that elite 4 team mix. Quite possibly the favorite in the NL. If ever Liberty was gonna spend big now is the precise time to do it.

    Sign Rendon and trade for Marte and go to battle.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    The takeaway is the Braves are a very talented team already, and are only a payroll jump away from being truly elite. If AA is allowed to crank up the payroll, and does it without taking on horrible long term contracts, the Braves can be on the cusp of the the same echelon as the super teams.

    If there was ever a time to blow the roof off the payroll, giving Rendon 4-5 right now is the time to do it. The choice between 4-5 years to Rendon vs 3-4 years to JD should be an absolute no brainer, even if Rendonís AAV will be at least $10M higher.
    I totally agree. If they were ever gonna go nuts with the payroll now is the time to do it. Like I said a few days ago, Maffei may not have been joking when talking about spending or the payroll. We may have an offer out to JD right now and heís just waiting on Rendon so he can see if anybody beats it. If it were me Iíd be after Rendon too. Adding him and then making a trade for either Haniger or Marte would put us right there in WS conversation.

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    Agreed. A 5 WAR guy at 3b and a legit upgrade to the cOF makes the Braves pretty awesome.

    The homer in all of us is hoping that amount of cash is there.

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    Scheff ans Nscapi have a new follower today.

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    ncsacpi will be here with an inside joke soon, not to worry. it will cut like a knife to be sure. like calling a pitcher fat. this guy really brings the posting heat!

    wait, here comes another WAR chart for 2022 based on ridiculously wrong projections! what a ****ing genius we have among us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chipchildress View Post
    ncsacpi will be here with an inside joke soon, not to worry. it will cut like a knife to be sure. like calling a pitcher fat. this guy really brings the posting heat!

    wait, here comes another WAR chart for 2022 based on ridiculously wrong projections! what a ****ing genius we have among us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chipchildress View Post
    ncsacpi will be here with an inside joke soon, not to worry. it will cut like a knife to be sure. like calling a pitcher fat. this guy really brings the posting heat!

    wait, here comes another WAR chart for 2022 based on ridiculously wrong projections! what a ****ing genius we have among us.
    did a boomer’s medicaid get cut and now he’s off his meds?
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    Quote Originally Posted by TURBO View Post
    Scheff ans Nscapi have a new follower today.
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    Quote Originally Posted by chipchildress View Post
    did fangraphs hire you yet?
    if not, WHY NOT???? want me to give you a recommendation? i know a few former GMs with some pull. #truestory
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