Donaldson and Pandora’s Box

[TheBravos]

I have been in the “Don’t go four years!!” camp since the beginning. I am now starting to ponder if that’s the right decision.

We have watched Bumgarner and Ryu both get four year deals (which is kinda crazy), but one thing I have noticed....they signed for less per year than what was originally projected. I now think we should go ahead and give him the forth year if that’s what it takes assuming we get a little more reasonable rate by adding the forth year. I feel like we are his number one choice.

If we do not, AA will not stand pat. This will most likely cost us one of Pache, Waters or Anderson and definitely Riley. I would be ok with a Riley trade, but Waters, Pache and Anderson have such high ceilings....we almost have to give them another year of development to see what they do. I do think we need to make some trades and clear some pitching spots. but with the 3rd baseman market dwindling....anyone with a great 3rd baseman would be crazy to not ask for one of our top three. I truly think Pache, Waters & to a bit lesser extent Anderson...are special. With the international limits and now picking lower in the draft...it makes these guys that much more valuable. Because they will be dirt cheap for years and if one of the three ends up being an all star (which is very likely)...that kind of production on a payroll limited team would be even more valuable to us.

Sign JD, hold on to BOTH Waters and Pache. Spend a extra $25 mil and roll the dice(maybe JD stays healthy and produces at least three of the four years), because doing that could very well save us $50-$100 mil. in value for years to come.

[Coredor]

I agree. I don’t think it will turn out to be a terrible deal either way. Unless we really believe in Riley he’s probably our best option. He could be the last piece needed to be a serious contender in the near future.

[BeanieAntics]

I'm willing to give Donaldson the fourth year, but the most I'd be willing to give him is ~100 million. I'd also prefer to have some of that money deferred, but that point isn't a dealbreaker.

[The Chosen One]

We have Greene and Melancon's money coming off after this season. So maybe backload it.

[BeanieAntics]

We have Greene and Melancon's money coming off after this season. So maybe backload it.

I want zero part of backloading a contract to Donaldson if it can be avoided. If anything, I'd want to front load the contract so his pay stays more proportional with his actual production. The only way I'd think about backloading a deal to him is if we simply didn't have the money to pay him the contract's AAV in 2019. But if we can fit Donaldson into our budget with a frontloaded contract, that would be the ideal scenario imo.

[The Chosen One]

I want zero part of backloading a contract to Donaldson if it can be avoided. If anything, I'd want to front load the contract so his pay stays more proportional with his actual production. The only way I'd think about backloading a deal to him is if we simply didn't have the money to pay him the contract's AAV in 2019. But if we can fit Donaldson into our budget with a frontloaded contract, that would be the ideal scenario imo.

We could probably fit him but not have the flexibility to do anything at the deadline.

If we give him a little bit more next year and in year 3 then it could work. Only problem is we have guys like Soroka who are gonna start being expensive in arb years in a few years.

[nsacpi]

It is tempting to give in to the belief that one player will make the difference. That is almost always not the case. AA needs to continue focusing relentlessly on value and on preserving flexibility.

[Snowman]

It is tempting to give in to the belief that one player will make the difference. That is almost always not the case. AA needs to continue focusing relentlessly on value and on preserving flexibility.

When the difference is between Markakis or someone competent batting fourth, one player makes a hell of a difference.

[thewupk]

When the difference is between Markakis or someone competent batting fourth, one player makes a hell of a difference.

Neck will be in the middle of the lineup regardless. And if he only faces righties should do pretty well there.

[TheBravos]

It is tempting to give in to the belief that one player will make the difference. That is almost always not the case. AA needs to continue focusing relentlessly on value and on preserving flexibility.

The more I have thought about it, the more I feel that if we do not sign JD back...the ripple effect will be felt for years. I think “that” could be worse than a year or two with a fading Donaldson making 20+mil.

I have come full circle.

[Enscheff]

A 4 year deal for JD obviously boosts the Braves chances now at the expense of wins 3-4 years from now. That’s perfectly acceptable, and is a trade off every single contender has to make.

Having JD able to shift to 1b or DH in the future is a viable plan, and is why teams no longer pay premium dollars for 1b/DH types.

[TheBravos]

A 4 year deal for JD obviously boosts the Braves chances now at the expense of wins 3-4 years from now. That’s perfectly acceptable, and is a trade off every single contender has to make.

Having JD able to shift to 1b or DH in the future is a viable plan, and is why teams no longer pay premium dollars for 1b/DH types.

I just think not signing JD, means trading a Pache or Waters if it’s going to be a real impact bat. What’s the surplus value on that? $75 mil?

[Enscheff]

Not even close to $75M

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-updat...ect-valuation/

Pache is a 60, Waters is a 55.

[TheBravos]

Not even close to $75M

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-updat...ect-valuation/

Pache is a 60, Waters is a 55.

So about $55 mil for just one, but you would likely be adding another prospect also right? So maybe $60 mil?

[Enscheff]

Well ideally they don’t give up Pache or Waters or Anderson. That’s kinda the whole point...to get a deal that’s better than just paying JD.

[TheBravos]

Well ideally they don’t give up Pache or Waters or Anderson. That’s kinda the whole point...to get a deal that’s better than just paying JD.

If that happened...that’s great. I don’t see us getting the impact bat we need with just Riley though.

[blueagleace1]

I'm all aboard giving JD a 4th year if that's what it takes but IF we do lose out on him I keep coming back to one team and trade that could/would solve our issues...

Trading for Seager and Haniger would give us what we need and I don't think would cost as much as Bryant or Arenado.

[Freshmaker]

Another obvious to simply resigning JD is that it keeps him off the Nats and leaves them with a 3B hole

[bravesfanMatt]

Another obvious to simply resigning JD is that it keeps him off the Nats and leaves them with a 3B hole

They have better internal options over us.

[BeanieAntics]

They have better internal options over us.

Who? Noll? Kieboom?

Noll is pretty uninspiring and if Kieboom plays 3rd then it leaves pretty uninspiring options at either 2nd or 1st, depending on where they play Kendrick. I'm no huge fan of Riley or Camargo starting at 3rd base, but I'd take them over Noll or whoever else the Nats have for 3rd base.