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Thread: Fangraphs Braves Prospect Rankings

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    Hot damn I knew Prado had some good years with us, but had no idea he had two 5.0 WAR seasons for us. Umbellibable.
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Chosen One View Post
    Hot damn I knew Prado had some good years with us, but had no idea he had two 5.0 WAR seasons for us. Umbellibable.
    I'd have lost big, big bets on that one, without a damn doubt.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowman View Post
    I'd have lost big, big bets on that one, without a damn doubt.
    he didn't hit 5 fWAR with the Braves, but he did do 2.5, 3.8, and 4.5. he then did 3.4 and 3.8 with the Marlins. i wouldn't call him just a sub.
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    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-big-...for-shortstop/

    Interesting article analyzing what we're discussing about Shewmake. The author had a difficult time drawing some conclusions because of sample size issues but he did a good job of analyzing the limits of the position. Shewmake would be at the outside limit for height. 6-4 is hardly unprecedented for a SS but it isn't common.

    One thing I found interesting was the average weight gain from age 17 until maturity. The average was 28 pounds. If Shewmake put on 28 pounds from his draft weight, he'd be at 218. This would again be on the higher end of the curve. Weights in that range are more common than being 6-4 at SS, but he'd still be one of the bigger SS in the game.

    28 pounds is just the average. There are arguments that Shewmake could gain more or less. First, 28 is the average from 17 until maturity. Shewmake is already 22 so he's already 5 years into that growth. Additionally, there are indications Shewmake struggled to put on weight while playing for a division I program. So we might expect less than 28 pounds.

    On the other side of the argument is the fact that the Braves have expressed the desire that Shewmake add bulk to increase his power. He's also now a baseball player full time with access to the resources the Braves can offer. Additionally, Shewmake has the frame to carry well over 30 more pounds.

    I think a lot depends on how much Shewmake bulks up. If he is really able to put on muscle and gets up to 225 or so, I think he outgrows short. If he stays in the neighborhood of 215 or below, I think his odds are much better of sticking (at least until he starts approaching 30).

    While athletes have been able to get bigger and stronger in recent years without losing a ton of speed, I'm still not going to put money on someone being able to stick at SS when they'd be one of the biggest in the game at that position (6-4, 220+ would be one of the biggest). Also, SS is more about quickness and agility than top end speed so it's a bit of a different measure.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-big-...for-shortstop/

    Interesting article analyzing what we're discussing about Shewmake. The author had a difficult time drawing some conclusions because of sample size issues but he did a good job of analyzing the limits of the position. Shewmake would be at the outside limit for height. 6-4 is hardly unprecedented for a SS but it isn't common.

    One thing I found interesting was the average weight gain from age 17 until maturity. The average was 28 pounds. If Shewmake put on 28 pounds from his draft weight, he'd be at 218. This would again be on the higher end of the curve. Weights in that range are more common than being 6-4 at SS, but he'd still be one of the bigger SS in the game.

    28 pounds is just the average. There are arguments that Shewmake could gain more or less. First, 28 is the average from 17 until maturity. Shewmake is already 22 so he's already 5 years into that growth. Additionally, there are indications Shewmake struggled to put on weight while playing for a division I program. So we might expect less than 28 pounds.

    On the other side of the argument is the fact that the Braves have expressed the desire that Shewmake add bulk to increase his power. He's also now a baseball player full time with access to the resources the Braves can offer. Additionally, Shewmake has the frame to carry well over 30 more pounds.

    I think a lot depends on how much Shewmake bulks up. If he is really able to put on muscle and gets up to 225 or so, I think he outgrows short. If he stays in the neighborhood of 215 or below, I think his odds are much better of sticking (at least until he starts approaching 30).

    While athletes have been able to get bigger and stronger in recent years without losing a ton of speed, I'm still not going to put money on someone being able to stick at SS when they'd be one of the biggest in the game at that position (6-4, 220+ would be one of the biggest). Also, SS is more about quickness and agility than top end speed so it's a bit of a different measure.
    Ya think? He's almost at maturity already. Expecting him to gain 28 lbs or more doesn't really seem to be the most likely of outcomes.


    This seems like a strange hill to die on. It'd be much easier to admit you were wrong than spending time searching for random articles to try and support an already weak argument.
    Last edited by Carp; 01-27-2020 at 09:15 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Ya think? He's almost at maturity already. Expecting him to gain 28 lbs or more doesn't really seem to be the most likely of outcomes.


    This seems like a strange hill to die on. It'd be much easier to admit you were wrong than spending time searching for random articles to try and support an already weak argument.
    uh, yeah, Shewmake wasn't 17 when he was drafted...he was 21, which is also known as "4 years older and more physically mature than 17." so why would he gain 28 lbs....
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Ya think? He's almost at maturity already. Expecting him to gain 28 lbs or more doesn't really seem to be the most likely of outcomes.


    This seems like a strange hill to die on. It'd be much easier to admit you were wrong than spending time searching for random articles to try and support an already weak argument.
    I normally would agree with you. 28 pounds seems like a lot for a 22 year old to add. The problem is he's 6-4 and 190. He's rail thin. He's got a lot more room than most 22 year olds who are 6-4.

    I'm not sure any of us will ever be proven right about him sticking at short. He's much more likely to end up being used all over the field. As he should be.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    uh, yeah, Shewmake wasn't 17 when he was drafted...he was 21, which is also known as "4 years older and more physically mature than 17." so why would he gain 28 lbs....
    You're discounting someone attempting to put on weight. If you're 21, 6-4, and weigh 210 pounds, you're not going to try to put on a ton of weight. Maybe add a little bit but you're not going to want to get too big.

    If you're 21, 6-4, and weigh 190, you're likely going to try to put on more weight. The Braves have already stated they want him to do it to add some pop. Ideally we'd get him to about 215-220. That would put him in the range Chipper played in (Chipper was listed at 210 but he was bigger than that, over 220).

    Honestly, we're stuck in the weeds as to whether or not he'll stick at SS as I doubt the plan is for him to be a fulltime SS. This just goes back to arguments when he was drafted as to whether he's a fulltime SS or a utility guy and I don't think anyone by now would be unhappy if he's a super utility player. I've come around to him because the more I've thought about it, the more I realize how valuable he'd be as one.

    If he adds 30+ pounds of muscle, get up to 20+ HR power, and outgrows being a fulltime SS, I don't think anyone cares.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    You're discounting someone attempting to put on weight. If you're 21, 6-4, and weigh 210 pounds, you're not going to try to put on a ton of weight. Maybe add a little bit but you're not going to want to get too big.
    you're discounting that he has struggled to add weight in the past, and wouldn't be naturally gaining weight as a 17-year old would, but would be focusing on adding a certain, structured amount. you're also discounting that getting to 210 would be 20lbs., not 28.

    i'm not really sure the point of this discussion, tho, other than someone trying to save a little face.
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    Disclaimer: I don't know BS or anything other than what most that have read regarding his prospect evals.

    I wouldn't think he could reasonably get to 228 or anywhere near that. You most likely looking at a guy that's 6'4 205 at his peak. Probably wouldn't get passed 210 without adding bad weight to the frame.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    you're discounting that he has struggled to add weight in the past, and wouldn't be naturally gaining weight as a 17-year old would, but would be focusing on adding a certain, structured amount. you're also discounting that getting to 210 would be 20lbs., not 28.

    i'm not really sure the point of this discussion, tho, other than someone trying to save a little face.
    I'm not discounting that. It was in my post when I posted the article. It's entirely possible he never crosses the 200 threshold.

    There isn't a point to this discussion. And I don't know how it would be about me saving face as I want to see Shewmake add a bunch of muscle. I'd love to see him get to at least 215 and see a jump in his power. I actually want him to outgrow being a fulltime SS. This discussion is made even more pointless as Shewmake is likely to end up playing all over even if he could stick at SS fulltime.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Yep both of those things. I wish the casual fan understood just how valuable a great utility player can be when getting 200-400 plate appearances per year in optimal conditions. There are some guys whose value is solely derived from the fact that they are versatile and have a particular skillset at the plate that may not transition well to a starter role. Occasionally you'll find a guy who is starter-worthy, but is better served being used as a utility player of the bench. And then sometimes you'll get a guy like Ben Zobrist who is kind of a quasi-starter, but plays all over the field in order to maximize his utility and mask other player's deficiencies.
    This is part of the problem - some of you guys group "casual fans" and those who may not believe all decisions have to be strictly dictated by analytics together, and that's simply not the case.

    Plenty of people around here understand and agree that utilizing players better will help in plenty of areas - there have been countless occasions where we've screamed for Snitker to sit Markakis or Ender, give Freddie/Ozzie/Acuna more rest, etc. because it will help in the long run. That doesn't mean you have to subscribe to the "never play someone except in certain situations" theory.

    Things that the numbers can't cover come up from time-to-time - one of the guys you planned to sit (or your sub) shows up that day and doesn't feel well, so you start Ender against a lefty, and so on. Somebody's sick kid kept them up all night or they have some kind of other family issue and they just aren't the best option on that particular day. Ideally you can follow the numbers all the time - things just don't always work out that way.

    Those things aren't always discussed in press conferences because not everyone's looking to place blame somewhere else - Freddie and others have said many times that those kinds of things are usually kept within the clubhouse walls.
    Last edited by clvclv; 01-27-2020 at 10:19 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    And I don't know how it would be about me saving face as I want to see Shewmake add a bunch of muscle.
    well i recall you railing on and on and on about how Shewmake was only a utility guy and couldn't play defense well enough, partially due to his size, to fit in any one spot long-term. now that that immediate, ignorant, aggressively confident take has been exposed to be pretty clearly untrue, you're trying to still kind of make it fit and not seem as ridiculous and over-reactionary as it was.
    i see you dog.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    well i recall you railing on and on and on about how Shewmake was only a utility guy and couldn't play defense well enough, partially due to his size, to fit in any one spot long-term. now that that immediate, ignorant, aggressively confident take has been exposed to be pretty clearly untrue, you're trying to still kind of make it fit and not seem as ridiculous and over-reactionary as it was.
    i see you dog.
    I maintain he's a utility guy. What's changed is I've come around to the idea that it's a good thing. I don't want him to be a fulltime SS. So I still think he's the same player, I'm just more appreciative of the value that brings.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    I maintain he's a utility guy. What's changed is I've come around to the idea that it's a good thing. I don't want him to be a fulltime SS. So I still think he's the same player, I'm just more appreciative of the value that brings.
    so you maintain that he doesn't have a position, despite grading out (by people who have actually watched him as a pro) as a plus defender at SS?
    or does the fact that he may be plus at multiple positions on the infield somehow prove your initial crying about him probably having to move to the OF as a prospect correct?
    you were pretty clearly wrong on your confident declarations about Shewmake. "...to go along with very positive public and private defensive metrics at shortstop." reports since he's been a pro don't backup pretty much anything you said about him when he was drafted...which is exactly why many, myself included, said you were overreacting and couldn't make a determination about the pick right away. you did, tho, and your ramblings are proving incorrect.

    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    I'm afraid he's a man without a position. Might never have the power for the outfield. Doesn't have the arm for the left side of the IF. Might be too big for second. Just doesn't really profile anywhere.
    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    Agreed that no player is perfect at 21. However, most players at that range don't have flaws that make them very difficult to project at any position.
    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    No, it's just one that comes to mind. Former infielder, moved to the OF, never hit enough to make it there. Just a some things that remind me of what Shewmake might face.
    the last quote above is comparing him to Lipka, who had to move from SS to the OF as a prospect..pretty clear that won't be happening with Shewmake.
    and here's a somewhat unrelated "lol":

    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    I'm beginning to wonder if we're so cash strapped as a team that we're going underslot just to save money.
    i don't think i'd sit here today and call the Braves cash-strapped, but hey, i'm sure i can rationalize myself into being correct if i did want to declare that.

    i think most had reservations about the pick at the time. i wasn't thrilled. but no one else whined over and over about it, asserting things to be true that apparently weren't true at all. you overreacted. today, the pick looks much better than it did at the time, suggesting maybe the Braves had a good idea about the player. which is why we wait to evaluate drafts.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    so you maintain that he doesn't have a position, despite grading out (by people who have actually watched him as a pro) as a plus defender at SS?
    or does the fact that he may be plus at multiple positions on the infield somehow prove your initial crying about him probably having to move to the OF as a prospect correct?
    you were pretty clearly wrong on your confident declarations about Shewmake. "...to go along with very positive public and private defensive metrics at shortstop." reports since he's been a pro don't backup pretty much anything you said about him when he was drafted...which is exactly why many, myself included, said you were overreacting and couldn't make a determination about the pick right away. you did, tho, and your ramblings are proving incorrect.







    and here's a somewhat unrelated "lol":



    i don't think i'd sit here today and call the Braves cash-strapped, but hey, i'm sure i can rationalize myself into being correct if i did want to declare that.

    i think most had reservations about the pick at the time. i wasn't thrilled. but no one else whined over and over about it, asserting things to be true that apparently weren't true at all. you overreacted. today, the pick looks much better than it did at the time, suggesting maybe the Braves had a good idea about the player. which is why we wait to evaluate drafts.
    I'm pretty sure I've already admitted I was overly harsh on Shewmake when we drafted him. On draft day I was excited at the prospect of two first rounders hoping we grabbed someone with star potential. Then both our first rounders being high floor, lower ceiling college guys. I freely admit I let my annoyance with that strategy make me overly critical of Shewmake. I still don't like the strategy.

    We'll end up seeing how he grades out defensively when he gets here. I'm still of the opinion that he doesn't really profile great at any one position. I'm just no longer of the opinion that it's a bad thing as he doesn't profile as bad at 7 positions. Let him range all over the diamond filling in for injuries, giving guys rest, platooning with guys, etc.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    he didn't hit 5 fWAR with the Braves, but he did do 2.5, 3.8, and 4.5. he then did 3.4 and 3.8 with the Marlins. i wouldn't call him just a sub.
    5 bWAR (do we still call it rWAR?) twice on bb-ref. DRS seems to like him more than UZR, so pick your poison there. Personally, DRS is the more advanced stat so far as I can tell, so bWAR is my pick.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    I'm pretty sure I've already admitted I was overly harsh on Shewmake when we drafted him. On draft day I was excited at the prospect of two first rounders hoping we grabbed someone with star potential. Then both our first rounders being high floor, lower ceiling college guys. I freely admit I let my annoyance with that strategy make me overly critical of Shewmake. I still don't like the strategy.

    We'll end up seeing how he grades out defensively when he gets here. I'm still of the opinion that he doesn't really profile great at any one position. I'm just no longer of the opinion that it's a bad thing as he doesn't profile as bad at 7 positions. Let him range all over the diamond filling in for injuries, giving guys rest, platooning with guys, etc.
    but you specifically stated over and over that he doesn't play defense well enough to play on the left side of the infield. this, by all accounts of people who have actually watched him and graded him (aka not you) don't agree at all with that. he clearly plays defense well enough to stick at SS.
    you're of that opinion, mostly, to avoid admitting you were pretty dead wrong. why else would you be of that opinion based on the knowledge we have now? it doesn't make any sense..other than trying to save face, framing yourself as still sort of correct when in reality, you weren't..at all.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Metaphysicist View Post
    5 bWAR (do we still call it rWAR?) twice on bb-ref. DRS seems to like him more than UZR, so pick your poison there. Personally, DRS is the more advanced stat so far as I can tell, so bWAR is my pick.
    sure, i'm not against using either, but he was also impressive according to fWAR. so either way, he put up some apparently underrated seasons.
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    Oh good grief... Why is it so important to prove somebody else wrong?

    Striker has clarified his position. It is really not far from the board consensus. It doesn't matter if he said something different earlier.

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