Braves sign OF Marcell Ozuna to 1 yr, 18 Million.

[Super]

You guys are living in that fantasy world where real GMs are all going to use FV charts when making trades no matter what. All the numbers make tons of sense in theory - unfortunately the guys that do this for a living aren't playing fantasy baseball and they have fanbases to answer to.

i think you're crazy if you don't think GMs use surplus value calculations when making deals. AA pretty clearly considers this stuff heavily. any good FO isn't making deals based on feeling and names. value is the name of the game.

[Carp]

You guys are living in that fantasy world where real GMs are all going to use FV charts when making trades no matter what. All the numbers make tons of sense in theory - unfortunately the guys that do this for a living aren't playing fantasy baseball and they have fanbases to answer to.

If Theo or Bridich traded those guys without getting AT LEAST one of those prospects back, they'd be shown the door pretty quickly unless it was a Machado type of situation. If Bryant shockingly wins his grievance there's a non-zero chance that could happen in July, but that's so unlikely it's just shy of being a pipe dream. Whether it fits the popular numbers-based narrative or not, they actually have jobs doing this that they probably prefer to keep.

It's been proven that GMs do in fact use charts just like that when evaluating trades.

clvclv gonna clvclv.

[Snowman]

i think you're crazy if you don't think GMs use surplus value calculations when making deals. AA pretty clearly considers this stuff heavily. any good FO isn't making deals based on feeling and names. value is the name of the game.

And even the ones who aren't specifically using those terms and valuations are still doing it to a certain extent just from feel and experience. The numbers aren't some huge new invention, they're a codification of the valuations that the market had already created on its own. No one ever sat down and said, okay, I declare that a free agent win is worth $8-9 million. They compared wins to what they drew on the free agent market and codified the value reality had already set.

[Carp]

Didn't realize Scooter Gennett was a FA. He immediately moves up the list for me to number 1, ahead of Holt. At the very least, he'd be a fantastic super sub.

[clvclv]

i think you're crazy if you don't think GMs use surplus value calculations when making deals. AA pretty clearly considers this stuff heavily. any good FO isn't making deals based on feeling and names. value is the name of the game.

At no point did I infer that they don't consider them - some more strongly than others - simply that while they're the sword internet heroes love to live and die on, they're not the only thing that people that get paid to do this have to pay attention to.

[Super]

At no point did I infer that they don't consider them - some more strongly than others - simply that while they're the sword internet heroes love to live and die on, they're not the only thing that people that get paid to do this have to pay attention to.

i think they use them very heavily. as in, they are probably one of the most important tools in deciding trades. in fact, a lot of recent trades, you can match up the surplus values on each side pretty closely.
it 100% is a widely, heavily-used tool.

[Carp]

At no point did I infer that they don't consider them - some more strongly than others - simply that while they're the sword internet heroes love to live and die on, they're not the only thing that people that get paid to do this have to pay attention to.

You absolutely implied that GMs don't value them highly. Or else you wouldn't have said it.

90 percent of Cubs fans won't care who they get in return, they will be mad even if they got back Pache and Waters both. I doubt very much Theo cares about that. He's trying to keep his job currently, so he'll accept the best offer if he feels it's the best move for the team. If not, he'll keep Bryant and try to other ways to improve the club. Simple as that.

[zbhargrove]

You guys are living in that fantasy world where real GMs are all going to use FV charts when making trades no matter what. All the numbers make tons of sense in theory - unfortunately the guys that do this for a living aren't playing fantasy baseball and they have fanbases to answer to.

If Theo or Bridich traded those guys without getting AT LEAST one of those prospects back, they'd be shown the door pretty quickly unless it was a Machado type of situation. If Bryant shockingly wins his grievance there's a non-zero chance that could happen in July, but that's so unlikely it's just shy of being a pipe dream. Whether it fits the popular numbers-based narrative or not, they actually have jobs doing this that they probably prefer to keep.

Do you even read what you write? As many have pointed out, it has been proven that orgs use exactly that to weigh heavily in their trade decisions.

[Southcack77]

You would think the Braves would get something better than the near worst case scenario out of it's starting pitching that they got last season. Folty and Gausman imploding. Newk getting the incredibly short hook. A procession of failures from AAA before Soroka and Fried stabilized things and they added Keuchel. The same thing could happen again, but you'd have to think on balance that it will probably be better.

The bullpen would seem to be drastically improved. It's hard to see how this could be a complete disaster, which at times last season's pen was. You have your one time closer, maybe providing middle relief.


Ozuna is a possibility to replicate Donaldson's season, but will likely fall short. On the other hand, you have a shot at getting better production out of Swanson, Inciarte/Markakis/Duvall, and possibly catcher.

It's a reasonable place to begin the season. Probably one or two pieces short of being a favorite.

[Eyeman]

I get Clv's point. A local radio announcer (Chuckery) was ranting last night about how we needed to give up Pache+ to go get Arenado. But as we can see, their GM quickly announced Arenado was not leaving a couple of days ago after he did not receive an offer that he figured his fans would stomach.

Back to Ozuna, I love the signing. Riley might not pan out, but Donaldson blocks him. Pache and Waters might not pan out, but now we have a cleanup hitter and no one is blocked. If we can get lucky and have another position player or two somewhat hit and the same with another starter or two, we are so set it's not funny. I also think we will still be able to pull off the late round draft strategy even after loosing the Ozuna pick.

[Super]

I get Clv's point. A local radio announcer (Chuckery) was ranting last night about how we needed to give up Pache+ to go get Arenado. But as we can see, their GM quickly announced Arenado was not leaving a couple of days ago after he did not receive an offer that he figured his fans would stomach.

a sport radio host has no idea how GMs operate. that's not shocking.
that doesn't change the fact that GMs 100% use surplus value heavily when deciding on trades and signings and such.

[Super]

You would think the Braves would get something better than the near worst case scenario out of it's starting pitching that they got last season. Folty and Gausman imploding. Newk getting the incredibly short hook. A procession of failures from AAA before Soroka and Fried stabilized things and they added Keuchel. The same thing could happen again, but you'd have to think on balance that it will probably be better.

yeah. it's not like everything went right for the Braves last year.
however, two things:
1). they won a ton of close games. can't rely on that again.
2). they benefitted greatly from Washington's super slow start. can't bank on that again.

i think the roster is a good bit improved top-to-bottom compared to the beginning of last season tho. i expect the rotation to be much better out of the gate, as well as the 'pen.

[thewupk]

a sport radio host has no idea how GMs operate. that's not shocking.
that doesn't change the fact that GMs 100% use surplus value heavily when deciding on trades and signings and such.

To be fair Bridich is a horrible GM and may possibly think that something like the Tex deal is going to happen for his star player if he waits it out.

Would't be shocked if Nolan opts out in 2 years and the Rockies get nothing.

[Heyward]

Did you even read? He said without Waters/Pache/Anderson

Yeah i wouldnt move any of those for them, but if you can get either without parting with them, tell me why the hell not?

[Heyward]

Ozuna probably wont replace JD's production, but the team as a whole is probably the best it's been under AA's tenure.

Bullpen is stupid deep. Luke Jackson is probably the 5th option from the pen when he was the closer last year for a good chunk of the season.

Two of Webb, Dayton, Minter, Sobo, maybe even Newk if Wright beats him out wont be in the pen. Nick is moved to a part-time role, TDA is an upgrade to Mac. Still have prospects to make a big splash if AA feels like the need arises and wants to go for it.

[nsacpi]

i think you're crazy if you don't think GMs use surplus value calculations when making deals. AA pretty clearly considers this stuff heavily. any good FO isn't making deals based on feeling and names. value is the name of the game.

Dave Stewart went with his gut.

[bravesfanMatt]

Is not Ozuna versus JD

It is Ozuna/Camargo or Riley versus JD/Neck. I only add Riley because I am not sure who wins the job out of spring.

[Southcack77]

yeah. it's not like everything went right for the Braves last year.
however, two things:
1). they won a ton of close games. can't rely on that again.
2). they benefitted greatly from Washington's super slow start. can't bank on that again.

i think the roster is a good bit improved top-to-bottom compared to the beginning of last season tho. i expect the rotation to be much better out of the gate, as well as the 'pen.

Maybe winning 63% of the one run games is not something the Braves can count on, but one run games aren't a coin flip either. Good teams tend to win them at higher rates, particularly those teams that have good pitching.

The Braves were 18-20 on May 9th. I think I remember that being a symptom of pitching dysfunction, but it might be interesting to go back and look. I think with the Braves lineup now you could expect a more stable pitching staff to pick up several games there. That's a hypothesis anyway.

That might well offset any reduction in one run games.

[Southcack77]

To be fair Bridich is a horrible GM and may possibly think that something like the Tex deal is going to happen for his star player if he waits it out.

Would't be shocked if Nolan opts out in 2 years and the Rockies get nothing.

I think they could give him a QO. So a draft pick perhaps.

[Heyward]

I think they could give him a QO. So a draft pick perhaps.

Strasburg got a QO, and he opted out, but i'd be surprised if he's not traded within the next 12 months if not sooner. They need to get SOMETHING for him before he leaves.