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Thread: Braves sign OF Marcell Ozuna to 1 yr, 18 Million.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Maybe winning 63% of the one run games is not something the Braves can count on, but one run games aren't a coin flip either. Good teams tend to win them at higher rates, particularly those teams that have good pitching.

    The Braves were 18-20 on May 9th. I think I remember that being a symptom of pitching dysfunction, but it might be interesting to go back and look. I think with the Braves lineup now you could expect a more stable pitching staff to pick up several games there. That's a hypothesis anyway.

    That might well offset any reduction in one run games.
    the Braves were swept in the opening series due to terrible pitching.
    Soroka and Folty were out and i don't believe Fried was in the rotation yet.
    SP being better from the start will be big for sure.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    Brad Miller is out there if he can play 3B. not sure what his arm is like
    Scott Gennett is also out there. can prob play 3rd. wonder what's going on with him.
    and then Holt.

    any of them i'd be cool with.
    Oooooohhhh I hadn't thought about Scooter Gennett. He'd be a great 1 year bounce back signing if we could get him cheaply and he could handle 3rd.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    To be fair Bridich is a horrible GM and may possibly think that something like the Tex deal is going to happen for his star player if he waits it out.

    Would't be shocked if Nolan opts out in 2 years and the Rockies get nothing.
    To be fair, based on surplus value they shouldn’t really expect anything anyways. Which is probably why they are comfortable with that possibility.

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    I am not sure I would gamble on Scooter handling 3rd and bouncing back offensively over going with a more sure thing in Holt. But if Holt is looking for multi year then scooter might be worth the risk.
    Coppy

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    Interesting argument here that the discrepancy between Ozuna's actual numbers and his Statcast expected numbers is at least partially because Ozuna's swing generates a slice, which systematically results in an under-performance relative to the batted ball data.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Maybe winning 63% of the one run games is not something the Braves can count on, but one run games aren't a coin flip either. Good teams tend to win them at higher rates, particularly those teams that have good pitching.
    To be more specific, teams with good bullpens tend to win more one run games.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    I am not sure I would gamble on Scooter handling 3rd and bouncing back offensively over going with a more sure thing in Holt. But if Holt is looking for multi year then scooter might be worth the risk.
    Ozuna just signed for 1 year. I doubt Holt is thinking he'll get multiple years. it's possible tho. maybe the figure is too high in general.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    Ozuna just signed for 1 year. I doubt Holt is thinking he'll get multiple years. it's possible tho. maybe the figure is too high in general.
    I don’t think he would either. It is why I would rather just go with him over scooter. I am not sure Gennett can handle 3rd either.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Not a whole lot in free agency to spend on next season.
    Betts or Springer.
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    True Super, some sports radio guys like to rile things up and look at things the wrong way even worse than fans do.

    Southcrack hit it pretty close, Arenado's value really is in the range of a QO draft pick.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MadduxFanII View Post
    Interesting argument here that the discrepancy between Ozuna's actual numbers and his Statcast expected numbers is at least partially because Ozuna's swing generates a slice, which systematically results in an under-performance relative to the batted ball data.
    Interesting argument that this post generates a big slice of buzzkill. Can’t be good for your ETR.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    Betts or Springer.
    Would love either, trade Waters or Pache in said scenario?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Would love either, trade Waters or Pache in said scenario?
    How could you trade prospects for a FA?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    How could you trade prospects for a FA?
    Trade them to his agent for a reduced contract, duh.

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    This is a great acquisition. Probably better in the long run over Donaldson at 4 years. Now I wish we could get a left-handed bat who could play third. Even better, one who could also play SS.

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    Good deal. Hopefully there is another move with 3B coming soon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    How could you trade prospects for a FA?
    If we got Betts or Springer, there's not enough room for Waters/Pache/Acuna and one of them, hypothetically.

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    I keep seeing $158M as the payroll. I'm getting 10M less. What am I missing?

    8.0 d'Arnaud
    22.0 Freeman
    1.0 Albies
    3.1 Swanson
    1.6 Camargo
    18.0 Ozuna
    7.0 Inciarte
    1.0 Acuna
    61.7 Subtotal

    4.0 Flowers
    3.8 Duvall
    4.0 Markakis
    0.6 Culberson (or other)
    1.0 Hechevarria
    13.4 Subtotal

    0.6 Soroka
    0.6 Fried
    18.0 Hamels
    6.4 Foltynewicz
    0.6 Newcomb
    26.2 Subtotal

    14.0 Melancon
    13.0 SmithW
    6.5 Greene
    7.0 Martin
    2.7 O'Day
    1.8 Jackson
    0.8 Dayton
    0.6 Webb
    46.4 Subtotal

    61.7+13.4+26.2+46.4= $147.7M

    Is there deferred or dead money or do we count all the non-roster invitees (which still doesn't approach the $158M I have read) or is that number incorrect?

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    A lot of people quote the luxury cap number, which is calculated much differently than adding up the yearly salaries.

    For one, the luxury tax value has an additional $15M for player benefits. It also uses the average value of the contract rather than the amount paid that season.

    Your numbers are accurate.

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    I'm assuming that Ozuna completes the bandage stop gap before Pache and Waters.

    The next move after this one is trading Inciarte. I'm fine if we don't this year and go for it as Pache is likely not as good as Inciarte is now.
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