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Thread: Chances for a Betts-type Trade Next Off-Season

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    Chances for a Betts-type Trade Next Off-Season

    The expiring contracts to Ozuna, Hamels, Melancon, Greene and others will set AA up with a lot of financial flexibility (to coin a phrase) next off-season. I think AA has planned this off-season with the idea of making a Betts-type trade at some point within the next year.

    A Betts-type trade has two ingredients: a highly rated player with two or less years of control and that control being held by a team that is interested in reloading/rebuilding/getting under the salary cap.

    I have a list of teams and players I think we could be working with over the next year:

    Cubs: Bryant and Contreras

    Indians: Lindor

    Rangers: Gallo

    Mariners: Haniger and Seager

    Not all these players are equally highly rated (though the pecking order could get rearranged quite a bit over the course of the 2020 season).

    While a deal for a position player seems more likely, there are also some pitchers we could make a similar move for. Someone like Syndegaard, Morton, Lynn or Boyd if they are healthy and productive in 2020.

    Depending upon whether the player has one or two years of contractual control left, the expected surplus value for those types of players could range from 3 to 7 wins. This means a potential cost of a top prospect like Pache, Waters or Anderson. AA is likely to be open to this. If Michael Harris has a strong 2020 season in the lower minors it will be easier to part with Pache or Waters. So far AA has been a prospect hoarder and made most of his big acquisitions via free agency. That could change in a big way over the next year.

    The advantages of a Betts-type move are obvious. You can massively upgrade a position for a season or two without a risky long-term contractual obligation. The amount of total expected surplus value is not as yuge as it is for a player on a team-friendly long-term deal, which in turn limits the cost in terms of prospect capital. Of course, I expect and hope AA continues to be a value shopper and not overpay even when shopping in a more expensive aisle.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 02-11-2020 at 11:40 AM.
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    going to be interesting to see if Gallo can repeat last year's production. he was on his way to a helluva season. the .368 BABIP tells us probably not. 37.3% HR/FB says no as well. But, if he can show himself to be a 4 WAR player, he'll be quite valuable. will only be 27. will Texas even want to deal him? he may be my ideal target if he continues to improve from his 2.7 WAR in 17&18.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    going to be interesting to see if Gallo can repeat last year's production. he was on his way to a helluva season. the .368 BABIP tells us probably not. 37.3% HR/FB says no as well. But, if he can show himself to be a 4 WAR player, he'll be quite valuable. will only be 27. will Texas even want to deal him? he may be my ideal target if he continues to improve from his 2.7 WAR in 17&18.
    Imo he is the most likely guy we trade for from my list. There is also a lot of logic to a move for Contreras.
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    I'm stuck in wait and see mode. I just can't figure AA out, he seems like a vastly different dude than he was in Toronto.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowman View Post
    I just can't figure AA out, he seems like a vastly different dude than he was in Toronto.
    he's pretty much said as much
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Imo he is the most likely guy we trade for from my list. There is also a lot of logic to a move for Contreras.
    catchers always take a while to develop. if Langeliers doesn't look outstanding this coming season i could see Contreras as a target.
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    I would add Jose Ramirez and Mike Clevinger to that list. Ramirez is controlled through 2023 and Clevinger through 2022, but if Cleveland trades Lindor, there really is no reason to keep those guys at that point, as they will just depreciate in value while Cleveland has to try and rebuild.

    Blake Snell is also getting more expensive and the Rays always seem to be willing to part with expensive players.

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    Should add Yelich to the list of possibilities.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The expiring contracts to Ozuna, Hamels, Melancon, Greene and others will set AA up with a lot of financial flexibility (to coin a phrase) next off-season. I think AA has planned this off-season with the idea of making a Betts-type trade at some point within the next year.

    A Betts-type trade has two ingredients: a highly rated player with two or less years of control and that control being held by a team that is interested in reloading/rebuilding/getting under the salary cap.

    I have a list of teams and players I think we could be working with over the next year:

    Cubs: Bryant and Contreras

    Indians: Lindor

    Rangers: Gallo

    Mariners: Haniger and Seager

    Not all these players are equally highly rated (though the pecking order could get rearranged quite a bit over the course of the 2020 season).

    While a deal for a position player seems more likely, there are also some pitchers we could make a similar move for. Someone like Syndegaard, Morton, Lynn or Boyd if they are healthy and productive in 2020.

    Depending upon whether the player has one or two years of contractual control left, the expected surplus value for those types of players could range from 3 to 7 wins. This means a potential cost of a top prospect like Pache, Waters or Anderson. AA is likely to be open to this. If Michael Harris has a strong 2020 season in the lower minors it will be easier to part with Pache or Waters. So far AA has been a prospect hoarder and made most of his big acquisitions via free agency. That could change in a big way over the next year.

    The advantages of a Betts-type move are obvious. You can massively upgrade a position for a season or two without a risky long-term contractual obligation. The amount of total expected surplus value is not as yuge as it is for a player on a team-friendly long-term deal, which in turn limits the cost in terms of prospect capital. Of course, I expect and hope AA continues to be a value shopper and not overpay even when shopping in a more expensive aisle.
    tell us the plan for 2025 with your NEVER even close to correct future value WAR charts. get a ****ing life man. get some fresh air.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chipchildress View Post
    tell us the plan for 2025 with your NEVER even close to correct future value WAR charts. get a ****ing life man. get some fresh air.
    ok boomer
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    Hard to really predict what AA is gonna do, but we will have quite a lot of money off the books. So something/someone will have to be added. AA is alot more safe in moves now than his time in Toronto, he wont make a move just to make a move.

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    Did someone really just claim future value figures are never right after literally every major trade and FA contract in the last 10 years has followed those values almost exactly?

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    Quote Originally Posted by chipchildress View Post
    tell us the plan for 2025 with your NEVER even close to correct future value WAR charts. get a ****ing life man. get some fresh air.
    Uhh, what?

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    So anyone else think Yelich might be traded next off-season. Brewers have one of the worst farm systems.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    So anyone else think Yelich might be traded next off-season. Brewers have one of the worst farm systems.
    I was thinking that too, but they seem to be in win now mode. Keston Hiura looks like another star to build around. Luis Urias could turn into something nice. They will get some salary relief with Braun leaving. They have a great pen and an average rotation. I think expecting 80-85 wins per season for each of the next 3 seasons is reasonable, so I just don't see them rebuilding, especially when there isn't a juggernaut in the NL Central right now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chipchildress View Post
    tell us the plan for 2025 with your NEVER even close to correct future value WAR charts. get a ****ing life man. get some fresh air.
    I bet you're fun at parties.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    I bet you're fun at parties.
    I would love to be at the same party as he is. No telling what would happen.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    So anyone else think Yelich might be traded next off-season. Brewers have one of the worst farm systems.
    I've brought his name up before, not sure how realistic that would.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowman View Post
    I'm stuck in wait and see mode. I just can't figure AA out, he seems like a vastly different dude than he was in Toronto.

    Toronto is in a unique situation in that they are in the same division as the Yankees, Red Sox, an Rays.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    I've brought his name up before, not sure how realistic that would.
    Trading Yelich would propel them from a bottom system to a top one, instantly. Well, that is, unless you're the Marlins and can't make a good trade.
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