The Coronavirus, not the beer

[zitothebrave]

Nothing yet Zito?

No my favorite game is thethe argues with the study using information from the study that he somehow distorts in his head.

[thethe]

No my favorite game is thethe argues with the study using information from the study that he somehow distorts in his head.

So let’s try it this way.

What was Sturg claim that you are refuting?

[zitothebrave]

So let’s try it this way.

What was Sturg claim that you are refuting?

No no no. I want you to say it all.

[thethe]

LEt's see, in 2019 there was 2.85 million deaths. Since 2000 the largest YOY death climb was about 90K. Now hard numberwise it's interesting to think about but it's easier to imagine based on percentage.

So going from year to year, I'll put the final year as this so we'll start listing 2014 but it will be the percentage increase from 2013 to 2014

2014 - 1.13%
2015 - 3.28%
2016 - 1.17%
2017 - 2.52%
2018 - 0.91%
2019 - 0.55%
2020 - 17.65%

Of course we don't have the final numbers for 2020 yet. Usually final numbers for the year hit later.

Without COVID we could have expected probably a high death around 2.94 to a low of around 2.87. Our provisional deathcount is around 3.3M.

The fact that you're being so blasé about it is sickening.

I certainly think covid hit the old and unhealthy harder than normal. We will be in a deficit position on excess deaths soon enough.

Still not the argument we are having now.

[thethe]

No no no. I want you to say it all.

Well you think you posted a study to refute Sturgs claim and yet the study only talks about a subset of what is included in Sturgs claim.

So in reality - you didn't show anything other than your own ignorance about data sets.

[zitothebrave]

Well you think you posted a study to refute Sturgs claim and yet the study only talks about a subset of what is included in Sturgs claim.

So in reality - you didn't show anything other than your own ignorance about data sets.

Sturg says ICU bed occupancy numbers are always in the 90% it's nothing new, study says otherwise, and you think it's somehting else?

The study was done about where ICU occupancy and Ventilators but also talks about ICU capacity. Like literally I copy and pasted from the article.

Literally it refutes sturgs claim of "ICU numbers are always around 90% even before covid." because at least in this hefty survey they weren't

Does that spell it out clearly for you?

[zitothebrave]

I certainly think covid hit the old and unhealthy harder than normal. We will be in a deficit position on excess deaths soon enough.

Still not the argument we are having now.

Ah yes. That would be a hell of a murder defense

"they were gonna die eventually, so who cares"

[thethe]

Sturg says ICU bed occupancy numbers are always in the 90% it's nothing new, study says otherwise, and you think it's somehting else?

The study was done about where ICU occupancy and Ventilators but also talks about ICU capacity. Like literally I copy and pasted from the article.

Literally it refutes sturgs claim of "ICU numbers are always around 90% even before covid." because at least in this hefty survey they weren't

Does that spell it out clearly for you?

I will first say that I didn't read the dates on the study so that is obviously my fault.

However, the study did show that ICU rate is relatively consistent and was pretty close to 80% the whole period. The study is also at a time when America was less fat since we know obesity rates are increasing.

So while I have to eat crow on what my initial comments towards you this study is still not showing what you want it to show.

[thethe]

Ah yes. That would be a hell of a murder defense

"they were gonna die eventually, so who cares"

Who said "Who cares"?

We are talking about hospital overcrowding so I'm not even sure why deaths were brought into the equation.

[zitothebrave]

I will first say that I didn't read the dates on the study so that is obviously my fault.

However, the study did show that ICU rate is relatively consistent and was pretty close to 80% the whole period. The study is also at a time when America was less fat since we know obesity rates are increasing.

So while I have to eat crow on what my initial comments towards you this study is still not showing what you want it to show.

No, it peaked at 80%. The mean was about 69% and that's based on hourly not anything else.

Yes it is showing what I want it to show. Dig into it more. Almost 1/5 of those ICU beds were occupied by elective surgeries. Something we know wasn't super large in the COVID world. So COVID was not only exceeding the normal bed capacity but doing it with less elective surgery recovery space.

[thethe]

No, it peaked at 80%. The mean was about 69% and that's based on hourly not anything else.

Yes it is showing what I want it to show. Dig into it more. Almost 1/5 of those ICU beds were occupied by elective surgeries. Something we know wasn't super large in the COVID world. So COVID was not only exceeding the normal bed capacity but doing it with less elective surgery recovery space.

What studies are you showing for your current ICU rates and the volatility of those numbers on a more recent timeline (preferably 2017-2020)

[zitothebrave]

What studies are you showing for your current ICU rates and the volatility of those numbers on a more recent timeline (preferably 2017-2020)

I haven't pulled that up. I wasn't trying to argue that point. I was simply putting sturg's off the cuff comment to bed.

Right now we can look at this information

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/hos...on-7-day-trend

See that since 9.20 that the lowest ICU% were in the high 60s

[acesfull86]

And I still fully support at risk getting the vaccine and when the time comes I'll be getting my father a booster.

The point still remains that healthy people under 40 do not need to, and really should not be getting vaccinated.

I just flew back from my sister’s wedding across the country. About a week and a half ago, myself, my parents, and a couple of other family members had close contact and a long exposure to someone who tested positive. One other person ended up getting infected and couldn’t make the wedding. The rest of us (all vaccinated) avoided infection and weren’t forced to miss a once in a lifetime (hopefully…lol) family event.

Would we have avoided catching covid without the vaccine? Maybe. But you can bet we’re all thankful we were vaccinated and gave ourselves a better chance at staying healthy.

Natural immunity may provide better protection, but it also has no regard for your personal schedule.

I guess I take issue with the “really should not be” portion of your post…

[zitothebrave]

The thing is that you achieve herd immunity through 2 means. Massive death, massive isolation, or combination of vaccine and natural immunity. If given time the vaccine will mutate to get more people infected. That's what the Delta variant is, it got past the initial hurdles the virus had to overcome.

[thethe]

I just flew back from my sister’s wedding across the country. About a week and a half ago, myself, my parents, and a couple of other family members had close contact and a long exposure to someone who tested positive. One other person ended up getting infected and couldn’t make the wedding. The rest of us (all vaccinated) avoided infection and weren’t forced to miss a once in a lifetime (hopefully…lol) family event.

Would we have avoided catching covid without the vaccine? Maybe. But you can bet we’re all thankful we were vaccinated and gave ourselves a better chance at staying healthy.

Natural immunity may provide better protection, but it also has no regard for your personal schedule.

I guess I take issue with the “really should not be” portion of your post…

It’s easier to forecast herd immunity and maintain it when the healthy population acquires natural immunity.

[acesfull86]

It’s easier to forecast herd immunity and maintain it when the healthy population acquires natural immunity.

That’s great…I’d rather go to my sister's wedding and travel freely than gamble on acquiring natural immunity if/when it fits my schedule.

[sturg33]

That’s great…I’d rather go to my sister's wedding and travel freely than gamble on acquiring natural immunity if/when it fits my schedule.

This working under the assumption that a positive case means you need to remove yourself from society

I don't think that argument holds once vaxxines were widely available

[thethe]

That’s great…I’d rather go to my sister's wedding and travel freely than gamble on acquiring natural immunity if/when it fits my schedule.

You’re entitled to that choice.

I’m just playing the odds that are in my demographics favor.

I spent hours in Chinatown during lunar new year in 2020 because I know what my body can do. I take good care of it.

As a species we have always defeated viruses like this through herd immunity primarily obtained via normal exposure. With the waning efficacy of the vaccine it’s almost impossible to achieve herd immunity because of the staggering in when people are gettting their jabs.

[acesfull86]

This working under the assumption that a positive case means you need to remove yourself from society

I don't think that argument holds once vaxxines were widely available

True. It’s the reality we’re living in, which certainly isn’t my preference.

[nsacpi]

One small inconvenient detail about natural immunity. We have by now quite a bit of knowledge about other coronoviruses. And the immunity they generate tends to be short. 6-12 months. We already know of situations where the same person has gotten covid twice.

Perhaps related to the above there is an accumulating body of data that people who have previously contracted covid are more likely to get it than people who have been vaccinated.