I ****ing hate that this administration, including Trump, says that we avoided a disaster because of social distancing.
It's a lie. The projections were a disaster and even with no mitigation we MIGHT have had 100k deaths.
But this would have of course been with a non crashed economy.
I'm still curious about this "all the models were wrroooooong" position sturg keeps repeating. I went back and re-read that Imperial college paper that supposedly snapped the admin into action with it's 2M dead prediction.
It predicted (converting some UK ratios to US for the suppression #s and ranges):
Do nothing: 1,700,000 - 2,400,000 US deaths by October
Suppression*: 24,000 - 210,000 US deaths over 2 years
*Suppression here being:
(1) 14 days quarantine for household with symptomatic cases, 50% compliance,
(2) Closing of some Universities and Schools
(3) General social distancing
(4) And then staggered on-off variations for recurrences over the next 2 years.
I'll repeat again that I have no idea what will end up happening, but I'm unconvinced that this preliminary modelling hasn't born out. It looks like thus far we are basically following the "suppression" option and are (hopefully?) getting the corresponding results.
I'm talking about the IHME model that task force keeps referring to.Originally Posted by Metaphysicist
Is that Impereial College forecast before or after he revised it aggressively downward?
That never happened.
The IMHE model has us at like 80k deaths by August under the suppression stuff we are doing. That seems consistent.
EDIT: Or more like the range is 50-140k by August. Huge error bars in that thing.
Last edited by Metaphysicist; 04-06-2020 at 06:34 PM.
See, was that hard to do? You can like a politician without thinking the are infallible. I think things would have been much worse without the shutdown. People were going to panic and take their own extreme measures regardless of what the government said which I think would have caused a worse impact on the economy. Might have been a couple quarters of -10% growth as opposed to one quarter of -30% growth.
"Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.
It’s over."
Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.
How can you see this happening now that NYC leveled off at a much lower rate than expected?
Hospitalizations and ICU beds are consistently a third or 4th of what the model predicted
Its nice to go from 2m to 20k because they did what you say. 2m was a bull**** number based on bad assumptions.
Those are all being extrapolated from deaths; I wouldn't be surprised if that was based on very little data, but they were just doing their best.
Deaths are what I'm more concerned about. That's the reason we shut everything down.
Birx now saying she has confidence that we will come in under the most recent projection of 100-200k deaths.
Fauci now backing that up
Fauchi knows the models had terrible assumptions
Virus was less deadly and it was more contagious.
All a recipe for dreadful projections.
Ok everyone know's you've lost it but this is just ****ing absurd.
Forever Fredi
Deaths are still wrong by a factor of 4 at least
The assumption that we would do nothing. I, and the paper, agree that was unlikely to happen. Doesn't make it a "bull****" number.
Do you understand what goes into the modeling?
Why do you think they got it so wrong?
It would have never happened even with no mitigation.
Immunity walls are real.
The range is 50-140k at the moment. For that to be off by a factor of 4 would mean deaths stop at 12,500. The US is already over 10,000.
So isolation had zero effect on infection rate. Got it, that's good to know.
Saw you just referenced 80k
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