The Coronavirus, not the beer

[nsacpi]

i'm not sure these data capture all the tests because the number of new cases in recent days has far exceeded these test numbers...but the graph might still give an somewhat accurate picture of trends in testing prevalence...the data in the shaded area are incomplete due to lags in reporting

[thethe]

Even that chart further strengthens the argument that the virus was spreading less proportionally in mid march.

[nsacpi]

[Runnin]

There's really nothing to do at this point but stay inside and see how it plays out. thethe has an obsessive need to connect the dots in favor of his specific world view while the dots are still moving.

[nsacpi]

Even that chart further strengthens the argument that the virus was spreading less proportionally in mid march.

My read on it is as follows:

The sharp ramping up in tests in the first three weeks of March will make it seem as if transmission is accelerating more than it actually is during this period. It is what I would call a false signal. As testing stabilizes at a higher plateau this false signal fades away. This has the effect of making it seem like it is decelerating more than it really is.

There are little details I'd like to know. Do the data in the graph indicate tests conducted or test results. I think it is the former. Which means the results could continue accelerating for several days after the number of tests conducted stabilize.

[nsacpi]

There's really nothing to do at this point but stay inside and see how it plays out. thethe has an obsessive need to connect the dots in favor of his specific world view while the dots are still moving.

at least I now understand how he is deriving that view...it's one of those situations where a superficial reading of the data produces a result that is pleasing...so no need to dig any further

[thethe]

My read on it is as follows:

The sharp ramping up in tests in the first three weeks of March will make it seem as if transmission is accelerating more than it actually is during this period. It is what I would call a false signal. As testing stabilizes at a higher plateau this false signal fades away. This has the effect of making it seem like it is decelerating more than it really is.

There are little details I'd like to know. Do the data in the graph indicate tests conducted or test results. I think it is the former. Which means the results could continue accelerating for several days after the number of tests conducted stabilize.

But the number of tests increases because more aggregate people are contracting the disease. That is why the rate of growth is important.

[thethe]

There's really nothing to do at this point but stay inside and see how it plays out. thethe has an obsessive need to connect the dots in favor of his specific world view while the dots are still moving.

The dots have moved well into my favor considering I started having this viewpoint on March 24th.

[Runnin]

at least I now understand how he is deriving that view...it's one of those situations where a superficial reading of the data produce a result that is pleasing...so no need to dig any further

You must be really bored.

[nsacpi]

But the number of tests increases because more aggregate people are contracting the disease. That is why the rate of growth is important.

also due to more tests being available

[nsacpi]

You must be really bored.

yeah...i think i should take a break

[thethe]

also due to more tests being available

But this hurts your position on the discussion we are having right now

[thethe]

Great news.

[zitothebrave]

One certainly hopes NY is at it's peak. But remember that until we have treatment for this it's still gonna resurge at some point.

[nsacpi]

As far back as late November, U.S. intelligence officials were warning that a contagion was sweeping through China’s Wuhan region, changing the patterns of life and business and posing a threat to the population, according to four sources briefed on the secret reporting.

Concerns about what is now known to be the novel coronavirus pandemic were detailed in a November intelligence report by the military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI), according to two officials familiar with the document’s contents.

The report was the result of analysis of wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images. It raised alarms because an out-of-control disease would pose a serious threat to U.S. forces in Asia -- forces that depend on the NCMI’s work. And it paints a picture of an American government that could have ramped up mitigation and containment efforts far earlier to prepare for a crisis poised to come home.

"Analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," one of the sources said of the NCMI’s report. "It was then briefed multiple times to" the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s Joint Staff and the White House.

From that warning in November, the sources described repeated briefings through December for policy-makers and decision-makers across the federal government as well as the National Security Council at the White House. All of that culminated with a detailed explanation of the problem that appeared in the President’s Daily Brief of intelligence matters in early January, the sources said. For something to have appeared in the PDB, it would have had to go through weeks of vetting and analysis, according to people who have worked on presidential briefings in both Republican and Democratic administrations.

"The timeline of the intel side of this may be further back than we’re discussing," the source said of preliminary reports from Wuhan. "But this was definitely being briefed beginning at the end of November as something the military needed to take a posture on."

The NCMI report was made available widely to people authorized to access intelligence community alerts. Following the report’s release, other intelligence community bulletins began circulating through confidential channels across the government around Thanksgiving, the sources said. Those analyses said China’s leadership knew the epidemic was out of control even as it kept such crucial information from foreign governments and public health agencies.

"It would be a significant alarm that would have been set off by this," former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary Mick Mulroy, now an ABC News contributor, said of the NCMI report. "And it would have been something that would be followed up by literally every intelligence-collection agency."

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/inte...ry?id=70031273

[thethe]

So if the virus was out of control in late November then it was in China in October and maybe sooner.

Therefore, the original seed infection from China was early Q4

[thethe]

One certainly hopes NY is at it's peak. But remember that until we have treatment for this it's still gonna resurge at some point.

There is a key assumption in this amd the counter position. And that assumption is a complete unknown.

[chop2chip]

One certainly hopes NY is at it's peak. But remember that until we have treatment for this it's still gonna resurge at some point.

Social distancing becomes less important if hospital capacity increases. Without a vaccine, 70% of the population will get this virus.

So if we hit the peak now and have 3-5 months to prep for a resurgence, we will be in a much better position to manage without requiring a shutdown.

[thethe]

Social distancing becomes less important if hospital capacity increases. Without a vaccine, 70% of the population will get this virus.

So if we hit the peak now and have 3-5 months to prep for a resurgence, we will be in a much better position to manage without requiring a shutdown.

I'm also confused why NY isn't being stripped out from the rest of the country. Its clear NY was different and hte numbers bear that out.

[nsacpi]

NY City has ramped up testing this week, with several large new testing sites opening. We'll see an increase in cases as the results come in. In the Bronx and Queens almost half the tests are now coming back positive.