The Coronavirus, not the beer

[thethe]

I know it's easy to make jokes when you have been wrong, but are you comfortable with just... increasing the death count by 40%?

Give it a week or 2. Eventually he will forget this thread existed and come up with some more OMB narratives.

[nsacpi]

I know it's easy to make jokes when you have been wrong, but are you comfortable with just... increasing the death count by 40%?

It's not just NY. From tapate's post about Albany, Georgia: "The coroner announced we were over 100 dead already with another 150+ hospitalized as of yesterday."

The official stats so far show only 78 deaths in that county.

Ultimately, though we will get our best picture by looking at the mortality data. We can look at April 2020 versus the same month in recent years for various cities, counties and states and draw the appropriate conclusions.

[Metaphysicist]

Still as concerned as you were a few weeks ago?

Nope, I'm magically unconcerned that the death rate in NYC has continued to rise since last you asked.

[Metaphysicist]

Thousands will die!

Give up all your rights.

Thousands have died...

[sturg33]

It's not just NY. From tapate's post about Albany, Georgia: "The coroner announced we were over 100 dead already with another 150+ hospitalized as of yesterday."

The official stats so far show only 78 deaths in that county.

Ultimately, though we will get our best picture by looking at the mortality data. We can look at April 2020 versus the same month in recent years for various cities, counties and states and draw the appropriate conclusions.

There is no data integrity if DeBlasio just waves a wand to increase death tolls by 40% overnight

[thethe]

Thousands have died...

And many more will die because we overreacted to a bad flu.

Hope you have the same concern for the families that cant feed their children.

[sturg33]

[Metaphysicist]

And many more will die because we overreacted to a bad flu.

Hope you have the same concern for the families that cant feed their children.

Wow, how dare you contradict the president. This is not a bad flu it is a very vicious and intellectual virus.

[nsacpi]

The extra deaths in New York city are not a surprise. EMS has reported a large number of people dying before they could get them to a hospital. The functionaries who record cause of death requested guidance from the city a while back on how those deaths should be recorded. The guidance has been issued.

The number of people dying in NY city is not affected by the guidance. It is what it is. And we will be able to compare April 2020 with April of recent years and see what the deal is.

[Metaphysicist]

Here's the "confirmed and probable" report from NYC. The main data portal is still just listing confirmed.

Although the anti-book-learning brigade here seems to think this is a conspiracy by Mayor De Blasio to make Mayor De Blasio look bad (17d chess), it is striking to me that the age breakdowns for confirmed and probable deaths are almost exactly proportional.

Data typically takes a full week to fully update, but under this measure, deaths per day reached almost 800(!) on 4/7.

[thethe]

We will get to hundreds of thousands of deaths in no time!

Models were perfect.

[nsacpi]

Here's the "confirmed and probable" report from NYC. The main data portal is still just listing confirmed.

Although the anti-book-learning brigade here seems to think this is a conspiracy by Mayor De Blasio to make Mayor De Blasio look bad (17d chess), it is striking to me that the age breakdowns for confirmed and probable deaths are almost exactly proportional.

Data typically takes a full week to fully update, but under this measure, deaths per day reached almost 800(!) on 4/7.

EMS has been reporting many more deaths at home this April compared to past Aprils. It is what it is. No one is playing with the data. Same thing was seen in hard-hit regions of Spain and Italy. People dying before they could get to a hospital.

[sturg33]

The extra deaths in New York city are not a surprise. EMS has reported a large number of people dying before they could get them to a hospital. The functionaries who record cause of death requested guidance from the city a while back on how those deaths should be recorded. The guidance has been issued.

The number of people dying in NY city is not affected by the guidance. It is what it is. And we will be able to compare April 2020 with April of recent years and see what the deal is.

Imagine Trump saying deaths are 40% less than reported. Youd rightfully be pissed.

But adding 40% to the number? 'It is what it is is'

[Metaphysicist]

Imagine Trump saying deaths are 40% less than reported. Youd rightfully be pissed.

But adding 40% to the number? 'It is what it is is'

Yes, I would be more skeptical if some one said actual dead people don't count rather than actual dead people do count. It's a conundrum, that one.

[Metaphysicist]

We will get to hundreds of thousands of deaths in no time!

Models were perfect.

Well, we can be sure that some of the models were wrong, like those that predicted no more than 20,000 deaths.

Deaths are still wrong by a factor of 4 at least [in response to 80k projected]

[nsacpi]

Imagine Trump saying deaths are 40% less than reported. Youd rightfully be pissed.

But adding 40% to the number? 'It is what it is is'

I've been posting about this for days. About similar phenomenon in Italy and Spain. I've been posting about what EMS has been reporting in NY.

The numbers are what they are.

[thethe]

Well, we can be sure that some of the models were wrong, like those that predicted no more than 20,000 deaths.

Still to be determined considering the funny math.

One day we will find out why nobody is dying of cancer and heart attacks the last 2 months.

It's a miracle!

[thethe]

Well, we can be sure that some of the models were wrong, like those that predicted no more than 20,000 deaths.

Sure...if you look at price is right rules. But I was technically closer.

[nsacpi]

Yes, I would be more skeptical if some one said actual dead people don't count rather than actual dead people do count. It's a conundrum, that one.

Data get revised all the time. It is something that people who work with data understand.

[Metaphysicist]

One day we will find out why nobody is dying of cancer and heart attacks the last 2 months.

If only, buddy...

Massive Spike in NYC ‘Cardiac Arrest’ Deaths Seen as Sign of COVID-19 Undercounting

Cardiac Arrest Deaths at Home in New York City Have Increased By a Startling 800%