The Coronavirus, not the beer

[nsacpi]

There are thousands of coronaviruses out there. Six have made the jump to humans.

It will happen again. Making the investment to greatly ramp up testing capacity ought to be a no brainer.

[nsacpi]

How do you administer a process like that?

It will take a multi-pronged approach. I think pharmacies will play a big role. Rhode Island leads the country in testing per capita. Main reason is CVS is headquartered there and has stepped forward to lead the effort.

[Runnin]

one of the worst moments in American history. We will look back in this time and wonder why we so easily gave up our freedoms.

[thethe]

It will take a multi-pronged approach. I think pharmacies will play a big role. Rhode Island leads the country in testing per capita. Main reason is CVS is headquartered there and has stepped forward to lead the effort.

What mechanism does a person get selected for testing?

[nsacpi]

What mechanism does a person get selected for testing?

There is no selection mechanism. Everyone gets tested every 10 days. That's the plan.

[Runnin]

It will take a multi-pronged approach. I think pharmacies will play a big role. Rhode Island leads the country in testing per capita. Main reason is CVS is headquartered there and has stepped forward to lead the effort.

"Multi-pronged" is my new favorite word.

[nsacpi]

"Multi-pronged" is my new favorite word.

It is a workhorse of a word.

[nsacpi]

From the Imperial College model website. I think this graph applies to many countries. It shows the disaster that was unfolding and how much a few days mattered around mid-March. Whatever has happened here and elsewhere in April, it would have been much much worse if the mid-March measures (and the spontaneous ones are very important) had not been implemented.

[nsacpi]

This one for Germany also tells an important story.

[Carp]

Meanwhile Sweden has basically fully flattened on infections of a month and soon we will see that impact on deaths once the lag settles.

We were told accept lockdowns or millions will die. Just another thing the expert and professional class got terribly wrong.

Sweden new cases are still rising per week.

[thethe]

Sweden new cases are still rising per week.

Its basically flat.

[nsacpi]

14,434 new cases in Sweden in the past seven days

20,560 in the prior 7

that's pretty good

oops that's Italy


Here is Sweden

3,451 in the past 7 days

4,327 in prior 7

also pretty good

In the United States, we've seen an increase in the last 7 days compared to the prior 7.

[thethe]

14,434 new cases in Sweden in the past seven days

20,560 in the prior 7

that's pretty good

oops that's Italy


Here is Sweden

3,451 in the past 7 days

4,327 in prior 7

also pretty good

Immunity walls

[chop2chip]

14,434 new cases in Sweden in the past seven days

20,560 in the prior 7

that's pretty good

oops that's Italy


Here is Sweden

3,451 in the past 7 days

4,327 in prior 7

also pretty good

In the United States, we've seen an increase in the last 7 days compared to the prior 7.

Here’s what’s happening in my view.

Lockdown or no lockdown doesn’t really impact social mobility all that much. People in general are going to social distance as a general rule until they feel safe.

If we can allow people to feel safe in a restaurant or at the beach then we should allow them the choice to do so. It’s going to result in a moderately higher case count in all likelihood, but we have medical capacity to spare.

The discourse around this is so strange. There is this impression that people are like cattle locked in their homes by these orders. What Sweden has shown is that people are generally good at self policing when they understand the risks.

[chop2chip]

And then there is this (PRE-PRINT WARNING)

Vitamin D deficiency linked to higher risk of fatal COVID outcome. (Preprint awaiting peer review)

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-21211/v1

[nsacpi]

Here’s what’s happening in my view.

Lockdown or no lockdown doesn’t really impact social mobility all that much. People in general are going to social distance as a general rule until they feel safe.

If we can allow people to feel safe in a restaurant or at the beach then we should allow them the choice to do so. It’s going to result in a moderately higher case count in all likelihood, but we have medical capacity to spare.

The discourse around this is so strange. There is this impression that people are like cattle locked in their homes by these orders. What Sweden has shown is that people are generally good at self policing when they understand the risks.

I'm sympathetic to letting people choose what kind of risks they expose themselves to.

But there is the small matter of externalities. Actually it is not such a small matter. When I go out and sit down to dinner I incur X dollars worth of risk. But I am exposing others I encounter to 4X dollars worth of risk by having sat down at a restaurant. Some people will internalize that risk to others. Many will not.

[thethe]

And then there is the (PRE-PRINT WARNING)

Vitamin D deficiency linked to higher risk of fatal COVID outcome. (Preprint awaiting peer review)

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-21211/v1

Stay away from the light we are told

[chop2chip]

I'm sympathetic to letting people choose what kind of risks they expose themselves to.

But there is the small matter of externalities. Actually it is not such a small matter. When I go out and sit down to dinner I incur X dollars worth of risk. But I am exposing others I encounter to 4X dollars worth of risk by having sat down at a restaurant. Some people will internalize that risk to others. Many will not.

If we opened every restaurant in the country right now, how many of them would even meet 25% capacity? Anecdotally, Sweden is showing that people are practicing social distancing without government enforcement.

At some point we have to allow people to make choices again (with restrictions of course). We are no longer overwhelming hospitals. What’s the difference between opening up now versus July?

[nsacpi]

If we opened every restaurant in the country right now, how many of them would even meet 25% capacity? Anecdotally, Sweden is showing that people are practicing social distancing without government enforcement.

At some point we have to allow people to make choices again (with restrictions of course). We are no longer overwhelming hospitals. What’s the difference between opening up now versus July?

There are some states and countries that should be opening now given how much they have brought down the growth rate of infections. For other places, they are taking a big risk. Exponential growth is a devastating thing when it comes to this virus.

[thethe]

Still making the same mistakes