How do we reconcile 4 weeks of opening back up and positive rates are going down?
How do we reconcile 4 weeks of opening back up and positive rates are going down?
It is the obvious truths that many have been stressing for a while. For me its the 2 basic points:Originally Posted by sturg33
1) Immunity walls are not just when the virus goes away. Its a rolling concept that as the uninfected population shrinks the rate of spread will decrease to the point where the R naught will naturally dip below 1.
2) Lockdowns could have potentialliy aided the spread for a longer period of time because we forced people to be in close contact indoors for long periods of time. Now at that point the uninfected population was higher so it could just have been the virus taking its natural progression.
There is literally no justification that is science/data based to stay closed. Caution use of NYC subway and lets get back to work. Should have done this weeks ago.
Natural Immunity Croc
Deaths in Texas 5/11 to 5/18: 247
Deaths in Texas 5/4 to 5/11: 216
Up 14%.
For what it's worth since deaths are a lagging indicator.
I'd say the situation in Texas is roughly neutral. They've increased testing. The expected results for that are more positive and a decreasing percentage of positive results, and that's what they've seen. If you squint really hard at the data I think the net is slightly positive for Texas the past few weeks.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Texas is positive because even with a slight improvement in the underlying leading statistics they are doing this with an opened economy.
Therefore, its more 'good' than you are letting on.
Natural Immunity Croc
That's a fair point. There is definitely a big economic plus from doing that.
I'd say so far Georgia, Texas and Florida have done better since re-opening that I had expected. It could be that voluntary action will be enough to keep things going in a positive direction in those states. I hope so.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Its a blueprint for all states aside from NY.
I don't get any justification for staying closed now.
Natural Immunity Croc
This has been in the air for close to a week now, I have seen no discussion yet people are still touting Georgias success.
What gives ?
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/stor...ata-brian-kemp
AJC
✔
@ajc
Gov. Brian Kemp’s office issued an apology after a
Georgia Public Health Department chart wrongly reported
a downward trend in #coronavirus cases. The error was at
least the third in as many weeks:
https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regi...9XEF8vO11NVGO/
The best way to stop a bad guy with a gun is to make sure he doesn’t get a gun.
The data is complete in the COVID project database. And that is what we are reporting on.
I'm sorry the positive news is disappointing.
Natural Immunity Croc
AJC is reporting the books (data) are cooked
If there is anything disappointing about this it is Gov Kemp
The best way to stop a bad guy with a gun is to make sure he doesn’t get a gun.
that being the case why is the Gov apologizing after getting caught and how has this mis-characterization skewed the data ?
The best way to stop a bad guy with a gun is to make sure he doesn’t get a gun.
I don't think they're cooked. They've made some mistakes and acknowledged it. Some of the charts in the Georgia DPH daily briefing can be misinterpreted. But they footnote those issues. So people who are misinterpreting those charts should know better.
These data are being reviewed by so many people (including a bunch of pretty well qualified data scientists) that it would be crazy to try to cook them. They are what they are. In some cases there are mistakes and lags. But ultimately no purpose is served by trying to skew the data one way or another.
Last edited by nsacpi; 05-19-2020 at 02:42 PM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
You are not seeing what you think you are seeing buy joy Reid tweeted about it so it has to be true for you.
Natural Immunity Croc
who is Joy Reid ?
That is quite a statement,
" You are not seeing what you think you are seeing "
Isnt there an Orwell quote along those lines ?
Funny how Stacy Abrams is "heavily" mentioned the same days that Kemp is accused of fudging numbers.
Or, creating the appearance of ...
Last edited by 57Brave; 05-19-2020 at 02:47 PM.
The best way to stop a bad guy with a gun is to make sure he doesn’t get a gun.
Sure
Natural Immunity Croc
You literally are not understanding the issue at hand just like the dem state reps.
You need to stop and let the people that understand these things discuss.
Natural Immunity Croc
The dem state reps ?
I dont understand that is why I asked
and what I asked was did the information supplied by the Kemp administration skew the data.
No one has given an answer.
pro or con
Last edited by 57Brave; 05-19-2020 at 02:51 PM.
The best way to stop a bad guy with a gun is to make sure he doesn’t get a gun.
Nsacpi eloquently provided you an explanation. Did you want me to rephrase?
Natural Immunity Croc
Of course there is a purpose to skew data.
I read it here everyday
If there wasnt why was the Florida administrator fired
https://www.floridatoday.com/story/n...ed/5219137002/
Was the information supplied to the data bank supplied by the Kemp administration verifiable ?
The best way to stop a bad guy with a gun is to make sure he doesn’t get a gun.
The Georgia data come from the DPH. There is a certain amount of discretion as to when they report certain things as happening. Such as if a positive test comes in today, do you report it as today or the date when you think the infection took place. As long as this is explained people can consume the data in an educated way.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
The scientist who created Florida's COVID-19 data portal wasn't just removed from her position on May 5, she was fired on Monday by the Department of Health, she said, for refusing to manipulate data.
Rebekah Jones said in an email to FLORIDA TODAY that she single-handedly created two applications in two languages, four dashboards, six unique maps with layers of data functionality for 32 variables covering a half a million lines of data. Her objective was to create a way for Floridians and researchers to see what the COVID-19 situation was in real time.
Then, she was dismissed.
"I worked on it alone, sixteen hours a day for two months, most of which I was never paid for, and now that this has happened I'll probably never get paid for," she wrote in an email, confirming that she had not just been reassigned on May 5, but fired from her job as Geographic Information Systems manager for the Florida Department of Health.
After FLORIDA TODAY first reported Jones' removal from her position in charge of the Florida COVID-19 Data and Surveillance Dashboard she created, she confirmed, as reported by CBS-12 in West Palm Beach that she was fired because she was ordered to censor some data, but refused to "manually change data to drum up support for the plan to reopen."
She provided no further details.
In an email last Friday to researchers and other data users, Jones warned that with her removal changes were likely coming to the accessibility and transparency of the dashboard data.
"They are making a lot of changes. I would advise being diligent in your respective uses of this data," she wrote.
Researchers who saw the email reacted with shock and dismay, suggesting it could be evidence that the Gov. Ron De Santis' government was censoring information tosupport the case for re-opening Florid
The best way to stop a bad guy with a gun is to make sure he doesn’t get a gun.
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