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Thread: The Coronavirus, not the beer

  1. #10821
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    "In the best-case scenario, a vaccine and better treatments blunt COVID-19’s severity, making it a much less dangerous and less disruptive disease. Over time, SARS-CoV-2 becomes just another seasonal respiratory virus, like the four other coronaviruses that cause a sizable proportion of common colds: 229E, OC43, NL63, and HKU1. These cold coronaviruses are so common that we have likely all had them at some point, maybe even multiple times. They can cause serious outbreaks, especially in the elderly, but are usually mild enough to fly under the radar. One endgame is that SARS-CoV-2 becomes the fifth coronavirus that regularly circulates among humans.

    With a virus, there is a general trade-off between how contagious it is and how deadly it is. SARS and SARS-CoV-2 are illustrative points of comparison: The earlier virus killed a much higher proportion of patients, but it also did not spread as easily. And what a virus ultimately wants to do is keep spreading, which is much easier to do from a live, walking host than a dead one. “In the grand scheme of things, you know, a dead host doesn't help the virus,” says Vineet Menachery, a coronavirus researcher at the University of Texas Medical Branch. The other four coronaviruses may also be less deadly because we have all encountered them as children, and even if our immunity does not prevent us from getting them again, it may still prevent severe disease. All of this, along with immunity from vaccines, means that COVID-19 is likely to become far less disruptive down the line."

    Influenza might be another useful point of comparison. The “flu” is not one virus but actually several different strains that circulate seasonally. After pandemics like 2009’s H1N1 flu, also known as swine flu, the pandemic strain does not simply disappear. Instead, it turns into a seasonal flu strain that circulates all year but peaks during the winter. A descendent of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic strain is still the seasonal flu today. The seasonal peaks never quite reach pandemic heights because of building immunity in the population. Eventually, a new strain, against which people have no immunity, comes along and sparks a new pandemic, and then it becomes the new dominant seasonal strain.

    “In this way, the long-term outlook for COVID-19 might offer some hope for a return to normal. “I think this virus is with us to the future,” Ruth Karron, a vaccine researcher at Johns Hopkins, told me. “But so is influenza with us, and for the most part, flu doesn't shut down our societies. We manage it.’”


    Thankfully, it looks like it is weakening as it mutates. But, I wouldn't be shocked if the USA has had 300,000 fatalities by year's end.

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    Last edited by BedellBrave; 08-07-2020 at 11:14 AM.

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    Is the virus weakening or are the right people getting it because of competant strategy?

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Is the virus weakening or are the right people getting it because of competant strategy?

    My layman's sense is that it is the former rather than the latter. I don't assume we do competent.

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    Feels like there are tons of false positives. High profile people find it out.

    Us normals have to go quarantine while asymptomatic

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    Quote Originally Posted by BedellBrave View Post
    My layman's sense is that it is the former rather than the latter. I don't assume we do competent.
    I think just doing a simple comparison of median age of infected tells us the true story.

    Northeast was flat out incompetent and borderline malfeasance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Feels like there are tons of false positives. High profile people find it out.

    Us normals have to go quarantine while asymptomatic
    Not only that but reports of people testing positive who never taken a test. In addition, many independent reporting is showing if one person takes multiple tests its counted as multiple positives.

    This was the greatest scam ever pulled on the American people.

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    Pelosi needs a nap


  8. The Following User Says Thank You to sturg33 For This Useful Post:

    acesfull86 (08-07-2020)

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    They get terrified if any of their sheep here a counter narrative.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I think just doing a simple comparison of median age of infected tells us the true story.

    Northeast was flat out incompetent and borderline malfeasance.

    Anecdotally, age hasn't really been that great of a factor in the ones I know (around 45 now) that have contracted Covid-19. But I agree, Cuomo made a horrific error.

    I don't have a rosy view of man -- I'm a Calvinist. :-) So, I don't put much hope in yahoos to be competent. To be self-centered? Absolutely.

    I'd put more stock in a virus mutating than in humans doing things competently and compassionately.
    Last edited by BedellBrave; 08-07-2020 at 11:25 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Is the virus weakening or are the right people getting it because of competant strategy?
    The former is better. Competency is subjective and ever changing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BedellBrave View Post
    Anecdotally, age hasn't really been that great of a factor in the ones I know (around 45 now) that have contracted Covid-19. But I agree, Cuomo made a horrific error.

    I don't have a rosy view of man -- I'm a Calvinist. :-) So, I don't put much hope in yahoos to be competent. To be self-centered? Absolutely.

    I'd put more stock in a virus mutating than in humans doing things competently and compassionately.
    Chef’s kiss that last sentence.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Feels like there are tons of false positives. High profile people find it out.

    Us normals have to go quarantine while asymptomatic
    So then we aren't close to herd immunity? I was assured half the population would have have the virus by now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    So then we aren't close to herd immunity? I was assured half the population would have have the virus by now.
    Non sensical point.

    Going to ignore the fact you said something that's an indisputable was a conspiracy?
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    Innocent mistake I'm sure


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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    So then we aren't close to herd immunity? I was assured half the population would have have the virus by now.
    Who told you that?

    I suspect maybe NY and NJ are at or near after they wiped out their population.

    The rest of the country hid from it in their basements

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    Yes.

    We are just going to ignore it


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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Yes.

    We are just going to ignore it

    If tbe panic crowd was even 10% rigbt about thd garbage they spew Sweden should have 3-4x the deaths they have now.

    If the US practiced the same policy we may have another 20k deaths right now bit woild have more than likely been done with the virus.

    It was always about delaying as ling as possible to hurt trump.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Who told you that?

    I suspect maybe NY and NJ are at or near after they wiped out their population.

    The rest of the country hid from it in their basements
    Forgive him. He's still trying to understand lag and t cell effectiveness.

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    Italy most cases since May 28th. Spain over 4,500 cases again today... 2 times this week.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Italy most cases since May 28th. Spain over 4,500 cases again today... 2 times this week.
    Literally not possible with masks.

    Must be chxukleheads

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