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Thread: The Coronavirus, not the beer

  1. #7501
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    My wife and I have been staying with her family the last month.

    Her sister tested positive yesterday and we are all symptomatic and getting tested today.

    Fortunate that so far the worst symptoms for everyone have been similar to a bad flu, so hopefully it doesn’t escalate. It’s still early for us.
    Hope it stays mild for all of you.

    Bay area seems to be seeing an increase in cases. Is your sister-in-law some sort of superspreader?
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    My wife and I have been staying with her family the last month.

    Her sister tested positive yesterday and we are all symptomatic and getting tested today.

    Fortunate that so far the worst symptoms for everyone have been similar to a bad flu, so hopefully it doesn’t escalate. It’s still early for us.
    Good luck, good health, and a speedy recovery to you and yours!

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    Runnin (05-29-2020)

  5. #7503
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    I mean GA has nearly 2k deaths at this point. Florida has over 2k deaths. That's a decent enough sample size for percentage variances to level off.

    Would you prefer combining all the Republican states numbers and their nursing home deaths?
    Add both of those states together, and you're still 25300 deaths short of NY's.

    ETA... hell, NY has more nursing home deaths than GA and FL total deaths, and almost as GA and FL combined. Not really sure how this is used to build up cuomo
    Last edited by msstate7; 05-28-2020 at 10:56 AM.

  6. #7504
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    Good luck chop
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Of course its helping. These studies always have some sort of twist whereby they use the original version of chloroquine or they don't use zinc or they retrospectively look at outcomes while not handling administering of the drugs in a controlled setting.

    Big Pharma and the left teamed up to suppress the only viable treatment for the virus. They have blood on their hands because everywhere its used has seen a tremendous improvement in the death/hospitalizaton and even contraction of the virus.
    We've known that hydroxychloroquine treats coronaviruses since the early 2000's. Here's Lancet in 2003. https://principia-scientific.org/the...g-coronavirus/

    All because of the greed of Big Pharma we're going to lose people so they can have their billion-dollar vaccine. Unbelievable.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Garmel View Post
    We've known that hydroxychloroquine treats coronaviruses since the early 2000's. Here's Lancet in 2003. https://principia-scientific.org/the...g-coronavirus/

    All because of the greed of Big Pharma we're going to lose people so they can have their billion-dollar vaccine. Unbelievable.
    Its so obvious it works based on actual results that it could be nothing other than big pharma influence and the insanity of the left with regards to anything trump.
    Natural Immunity Croc

  9. #7507
    if my thought dreams could be seen goldfly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    My wife and I have been staying with her family the last month.

    Her sister tested positive yesterday and we are all symptomatic and getting tested today.

    Fortunate that so far the worst symptoms for everyone have been similar to a bad flu, so hopefully it doesn’t escalate. It’s still early for us.
    it ain't fun man. godspeed man and hope all come out ok.

    it ain't to be ****ed with

    no matter what some fools say
    "For there is always light, if only we are brave enough to see it. If only we are brave enough to be it." Amanda Gorman

    "When Fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Garmel View Post
    We've known that hydroxychloroquine treats coronaviruses since the early 2000's. Here's Lancet in 2003. https://principia-scientific.org/the...g-coronavirus/

    All because of the greed of Big Pharma we're going to lose people so they can have their billion-dollar vaccine. Unbelievable.
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Its so obvious it works based on actual results that it could be nothing other than big pharma influence and the insanity of the left with regards to anything trump.
    "For there is always light, if only we are brave enough to see it. If only we are brave enough to be it." Amanda Gorman

    "When Fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross"

  11. #7509
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    Times summary of antibody tests. Results reflect state of play in April/early May.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

    New York City 19.9%
    London 17.5
    Madrid 11.3
    Wuhan (returning workers): 10
    Boston 9.9
    Stockholm 7.3
    Barcelona 7.1

    These are some of the hardest hit cities.

    Places like Indiana have come in below 5%.

    Article just gives numbers. There are some other issues not addressed

    1) accuracy of these tests
    2) are people with antibodies immune and for how long
    3) when does herd immunity kick in
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-28-2020 at 02:12 PM.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Annoyed at their government, the French have taken to the streets brandishing drinks.

    With bars still closed despite the loosening of France’s coronavirus lockdown, the pre-dinner drinking tradition of the apéro has given way to the apérue: clusters of revelers on the streets, or rues, of Paris, outside establishments that are allowed to offer takeout.

    “They’re forcing us to do infantile things all the time,” said Frédérick Cassea, who was having drinks with two friends in front of Le Syndicat, a bar in the 10th arrondissement.

    “We’re all adults, we’re all responsible, we’re all aware of what’s going on,’’ Mr. Cassea added, describing the apérue and other acts of “civil disobedience” as a reaction to the government’s “catastrophic” handling of the epidemic. “Treating us like kids doesn’t work for long.”

    hmmmm…espèce d'idiot

    gives me some hope for murica
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-28-2020 at 03:32 PM.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  13. #7511
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    Interesting article in Science.

    https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...e.abc6197.full

    Respiratory infections occur through the transmission of virus-containing droplets (>5 to 10 μm) and aerosols (≤5 μm) exhaled from infected individuals during breathing, speaking, coughing, and sneezing. Traditional respiratory disease control measures are designed to reduce transmission by droplets produced in the sneezes and coughs of infected individuals. However, a large proportion of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) appears to be occurring through airborne transmission of aerosols produced by asymptomatic individuals during breathing and speaking (1–3). Aerosols can accumulate, remain infectious in indoor air for hours, and be easily inhaled deep into the lungs. For society to resume, measures designed to reduce aerosol transmission must be implemented, including universal masking and regular, widespread testing to identify and isolate infected asymptomatic individuals.

    Given how little is known about the production and airborne behavior of infectious respiratory droplets, it is difficult to define a safe distance for social distancing. Assuming SARS-CoV-2 virions are contained in submicron aerosols, as is the case for influenza virus, a good comparison is exhaled cigarette smoke, which also contains submicron particles and will likely follow comparable flows and dilution patterns. The distance from a smoker at which one smells cigarette smoke indicates the distance in those surroundings at which one could inhale infectious aerosols.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-28-2020 at 03:49 PM.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  14. #7512
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    Phil Ehr
    @PhilEhr
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    3m
    One day we’ll look back on this time and wonder why

    our government didn’t do more to take care of the unemployed,

    safely re-open the economy,

    and prepare for a 2nd wave of infections.


    This is who is running against Matt Gaetz in Fla-1
    The best way to stop a bad guy with a gun is to make sure he doesn’t get a gun.

  15. #7513
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    Do more?

    Countless people are making more on unemployment than they would be employed.

    Its never enough for progressives. Just a bunch of cbildren.
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Just wanted to point out something with respect to how quickly the virus spreads without mitigation. Its reproductive cycle is less than ten days. So a reproductive number of 3 means that over a month you are looking at an increase in the number of infected people on the order of 3 cubed. If the reproductive number is 2 it grows by 2 cubed over 30 days. So conservatively it is growing by a factor of 10 per month, which explains why a few days of hesitation over closing subways or ordering people to stay at home can be so deadly.

    My own admittedly very rough estimate is we had around 3 million infected people in mid-March. If nothing happened we would have had around 30 million mid-April. However, a lot of things kicked in around mid-March. Spontaneous social distancing. Government mandated measures. So by mid-April we had maybe 5 million infected people instead of 30 million. But to me this difference is what I come to in terms of lives saved. 25 million cases difference is equivalent to 100,000-200,000 extra deaths. It is a number. And that is just one cycle. If you think about the subsequent cycle you have one scenario where your baseline is 25 million infections and a second one where it is 5 million. So the difference in deaths keeps accumulating.
    There is a model that looks at a week or two of difference on social distancing. In the U.S., social distancing starting on March 25 gives you 456,000 deaths by early August and social distancing staring on March 11 gives you 67,000 deaths. A difference of 389,000 deaths. The reality we are currently living is in between those two scenarios.

    Link to model.

    https://covid19-projections.com/
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Terrible news


  18. #7516
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    People have lost their ****ing minds.


  19. #7517
    if my thought dreams could be seen goldfly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Do more?

    Countless people are making more on unemployment than they would be employed.

    Its never enough for progressives. Just a bunch of cbildren.
    What a bull**** economy that suppresses wages so only some prosper or have a livable wage
    "For there is always light, if only we are brave enough to see it. If only we are brave enough to be it." Amanda Gorman

    "When Fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross"

  20. #7518
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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Terrible news

    Its inexcusable that there are states are extending lockdowns. Pure tyranny

  21. #7519
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Data update on percentage of tests coming back positive for some states that have reopened:

    Florida: 2.6% past seven days vs 3.7% a week ago. Looking good.

    Texas: 5.7% down from 5.8% a week ago. Not bad.

    Georgia: 5.9% vs 3.9%. Starting to trend up. But some of the recent data look a bit funky.

    There are some states where the trends are becoming quite worrisome.

    Missouri: 24.4 vs 4.3. Could that be right? I think the trend is up but there may be a data entry problem.

    Alabama: 8.7 vs 7.7

    Arkansas: 5.8 vs 4.6

    South Carolina: 3.6 vs 2.8

    Tennessee: 4.7 vs 4.0

    West Virginia: 3.3 vs 1.3

    In general testing is being increased, which tends to bias the percentage positive down over time.

    The 7-day average for the whole country ticked up a couple tenths yesterday. Hopefully, just a blip.

    New York: 3.7 vs 5.6. Yeah we learned the hard way not to mess around with this.
    Bump

  22. #7520
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Bump
    Let's do hope we can get some bad news so we can keep our peopke locked up

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