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Thread: The Coronavirus, not the beer

  1. #2021
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    One week later, on March 6, Trump toured the facilities at the CDC wearing a red “Keep America Great” hat. He boasted that the CDC tests were nearly perfect and that “anybody who wants a test will get a test,” a promise that nearly a month later remains unmet.

    He also professed to have a keen medical mind. “I like this stuff. I really get it,” he said. “People here are surprised that I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ ”

    In reality, many of the failures to stem the coronavirus outbreak in the United States were either a result of, or exacerbated by, his leadership.

    For weeks, he had barely uttered a word about the crisis that didn’t downplay its severity or propagate demonstrably false information. He dismissed the warnings of intelligence officials and top public health officials in his administration.


    At times, he voiced far more authentic concern about the trajectory of the stock market than the spread of the virus in the United States, railing at the chairman of the Federal Reserve and others with an intensity that he never seemed to exhibit about the possible human toll of the outbreak.

    In March, as state after state imposed sweeping new restrictions on their citizens’ daily lives to protect them — triggering severe shudders in the economy — Trump second-guessed the lockdowns.

    The common flu kills tens of thousands each year and “nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on,” he tweeted March 9. A day later, he pledged that the virus would “go away. Just stay calm.”

    Two days later, Trump finally ordered the halt to incoming travel from Europe that his deputy national security adviser had been advocating for weeks. But Trump botched the Oval Office announcement so badly that White House officials spent days trying to correct erroneous statements that triggered a stampede by U.S. citizens overseas to get home.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  2. #2022
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
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    Past the death already. On to the obviously stupid investigation.

  3. #2023
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Trump spent many weeks shuffling responsibility for leading his administration’s response to the crisis, putting Azar in charge of the task force at first, relying on Pottinger, the deputy national security adviser, for brief periods, before finally putting Vice President Pence in the role toward the end of February.

    Other officials have emerged during the crisis to help right the United States’ course, and at times, the statements of the president. But even as Fauci, Azar and others sought to assert themselves, Trump was behind the scenes turning to others with no credentials, experience or discernible insight in navigating a pandemic.

    Foremost among them was his adviser and son-in-law, Jared Kushner. A team reporting to Kushner commandeered space on the seventh floor of the HHS building to pursue a series of inchoate initiatives.

    One plan involved having Google create a website to direct those with symptoms to testing facilities that were supposed to spring up in Walmart parking lots across the country, but which never materialized. Another centered an idea advanced by Oracle chairman Larry Ellison to use software to monitor the unproven use of anti-malaria drugs against the coronavirus pathogen.

    So far, the plans have failed to come close to delivering on the promises made when they were touted in White House news conferences. The Kushner initiatives have, however, often interrupted the work of those under immense pressure to manage the U.S. response.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    if my thought dreams could be seen goldfly's Avatar
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    "For there is always light, if only we are brave enough to see it. If only we are brave enough to be it." Amanda Gorman

    "When Fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross"

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Current and former officials said that Kadlec, Fauci, Redfield and others have repeatedly had to divert their attentions from core operations to contend with ill-conceived requests from the White House they don’t believe they can ignore. And Azar, who once ran the response, has since been sidelined, with his agency disempowered in decision-making and his performance pilloried by a range of White House officials, including Kushner.

    “Right now Fauci is trying to roll out the most ambitious clinical trial ever implemented” to hasten the development of a vaccine, said a former
    senior administration official in frequent touch with former colleagues. And yet, the nation’s top health officials “are getting calls from the White House or Jared’s team asking, ‘Wouldn’t it be nice to do this with Oracle?’ ”


    If the coronavirus has exposed the country’s misplaced confidence in its ability to handle a crisis, it also has cast harsh light on the limits of Trump’s approach to the presidency — his disdain for facts, science and experience.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    If the coronavirus has exposed the country’s misplaced confidence in its ability to handle a crisis, it also has cast harsh light on the limits of Trump’s approach to the presidency — his disdain for facts, science and experience.

    He has survived other challenges to his presidency — including the Russia investigation and impeachment — by fiercely contesting the facts arrayed against him and trying to control the public’s understanding of events with streams of falsehoods.

    The coronavirus may be the first crisis Trump has faced in office where the facts — the thousands of mounting deaths and infections — are so devastatingly evident that they defy these tactics.

    After months of dismissing the severity of the coronavirus, resisting calls for austere measures to contain it, and recasting himself as a wartime president, Trump seemed finally to succumb to the coronavirus reality. In a meeting with a Republican ally in the Oval Office last month, the president said his campaign no longer mattered because his reelection would hinge on his coronavirus response.

    “It’s absolutely critical for the American people to follow the guidelines for the next 30 days,” he said at his March 31 news conference. “It’s a matter of life and death.”
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Runnin (04-04-2020)

  9. #2027
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
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    Do you guys get tired of being spectacularly wrong?

    You just want more torture?

  10. #2028
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    Chat at really safe distance or with a mask on... much more thought it’s more airborne than once believed.
    More than 10 feet. Although his dog did get closer.

    Btw there is a paper out on COVID-19 and animals. Some pets are receptive hosts and likely can transmit it. Cats and ferrets. I actually had a chat about this with the employees at the pet food store I go to. I've also discussed social distancing with my cats. One is naturally good at social distancing. The other is too friendly.

    Dogs and pigs do not transmit.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 04-04-2020 at 02:01 PM.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  11. #2029
    Not Actually Brian Hunter Metaphysicist's Avatar
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    Please stop posting from Alex Berenson. I'm sure you can get your spin from someone who hasn't already been caught directly lying about the pandemic.

  12. #2030
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    Quote Originally Posted by Metaphysicist View Post
    Please stop posting from Alex Berenson. I'm sure you can get your spin from someone who hasn't already been caught directly lying about the pandemic.
    Support an argument that this is going to get much worse. The data doesn't support it and you know it.

  13. #2031
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Without having delved deeply into all the models and their details, the basic impression I have is that doing nothing would result in fatalities of over a million and doing something along the lines of what we are doing will keep the fatalities in the hundreds of thousands.

    So I offer as a very rudimentary back of the envelope calculation: 1 million lives saved each worth $1 million translates to $1 trillion.

    $1 million value of a life is very low compared to what is commonly used in cost-benefit analysis. Even for an old and sick life.

    I haven't read the paper that Dr. Anna Scherbina sent me with a more complete analysis.

    Here is a link for those of you who want to dig in.

    https://www.aei.org/research-product...efit-analysis/
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

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  14. #2032
    Connoisseur of Minors zitothebrave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Support an argument that this is going to get much worse. The data doesn't support it and you know it.
    What's your definition of "much worse" Death Tolls have barely started. This is going through a number of waves. This isn't gonna be a smooth curve, it's gonna be ups and downs as people relax their social distancing.

    A lot of people are going to die, that's gonna be worse. We have at a minimum 10 times more deaths than we have had so far.
    Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg

  15. #2033
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Summary of Dr. Scherbina's basic finding:

    We investigate the optimal duration of the COVID-19 suppression policy. We find that absent extensive suppression measures, the economic cost of the virus will total over $9 trillion, which represents 43% of annual GDP. The optimal duration of the suppression policy crucially depends on the policy’s effectiveness in reducing the rate of the virus transmission. We use three different assumptions for the suppression policy effectiveness, measured by the R0 that it can achieve (R0 indicates the number of people an infected person infects on average at the start of the outbreak). Using the assumption that the suppression policy can achieve R0 = 1, we assess that it should be kept in place between 30 and 34 weeks. If suppression can achieve a lower R0 = 0.7, the policy should be in place between 11 and 12 weeks. Finally, for the most optimistic assumption that the suppression policy can achieve an even lower R0 of 0.5, we estimate that it should last between seven and eight weeks. We further show that stopping the suppression policy before six weeks does not produce any meaningful improvements in the pandemic outcome.

    It is interesting (and counterintuitive to me) that less effective measures should be kept in place longer.

    I might add that Dr. Scherbina was on the staff of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Trump Administration and that her paper has been shared with her former colleagues. She is not some sort of lefty. She has an affiliation with the American Enterprise Institute.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 04-04-2020 at 02:19 PM.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

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  16. #2034
    Waiting for Free Agency acesfull86's Avatar
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    30-34 weeks? Yowza

  17. #2035
    Not Actually Brian Hunter Metaphysicist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Support an argument that this is going to get much worse. The data doesn't support it and you know it.
    I literally don't even understand what you are advocating for? Should we reopen the cities right now?

    I have no idea what the outcome will be. The models have huge error bars, and ultimately are just predictions. I'm not trying to speak with confidence about things I don't know. I would recommend that posture.

  18. #2036
    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
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    4 week lifecycle for the virus. How are people getting infected during the past 4 weeks. You wonder why the projections are so off?

  19. #2037
    Waiting for Free Agency acesfull86's Avatar
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    Via WSJ:

    Tobacco companies are the latest entrant in the race to find a vaccine for the novel coronavirus.

    Lucky Strike owner British American Tobacco PLC is developing a potential vaccine grown in tobacco plants, while Medicago Inc., a biotech firm partly owned by Marlboro maker Philip Morris International Inc., is pursuing a similar effort.

    Tobacco is well-researched, cheap to grow and can yield large amounts of vaccine quickly. Tobacco-based vaccines also don’t need refrigeration, simplifying the supply chain. Scientists say these factors could reduce production time to weeks instead of months and make vaccines as much as 40% cheaper to produce than using animal cells.

  20. #2038
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    Quote Originally Posted by Metaphysicist View Post
    I literally don't even understand what you are advocating for? Should we reopen the cities right now?
    Everything reopened. Define at risk population and recommend they stay in. Government subsidy for those in the at risk population plus those that have to take care of those people.

    Everyone else? Back to work fully.

    Wear masks or scarves when in large public places. Purchase Planequil. Tske it if you show symptoms.

    This isnt hard.

  21. #2039
    Not Actually Brian Hunter Metaphysicist's Avatar
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    Okay, then you are an idiot.

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    Is there no curiosity why the models have been so wrong?

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