I find it hard to believe you actually watch enough Rachel Maddow to know what her nightly segments are like. I certainly don't, but I probably won't take your word for it.Originally Posted by sturg33
I find it hard to believe you actually watch enough Rachel Maddow to know what her nightly segments are like. I certainly don't, but I probably won't take your word for it.
The graph I posted literally shows how the death count cannot be right. That's the whole point. A rate of transmission slow enough to have been percolating in NY since October cannot be killing 200+ per day now unless we missed 1000+ deaths in March.
I keep saying NY because... that's the ****ing question. I asked how your "curve" could line up with NY.
I am impressed at your ability to avoid getting this.
I award you one "all-time" boner.
Last edited by Metaphysicist; 03-30-2020 at 05:20 PM.
goldfly (03-30-2020)
I'm confused by your response because as I noted my first chart did not account for the lag time in deaths. So with a seed infection starting 10/15, 1.3 on the growth rate and 3 week lag on death from original infection you have the following:
Mar 31st - 10.4M aggregate infected
Mar 31st - 1659 aggregate deaths .
By Feb 1st there were 10 deaths
Mar 1st : 120 deaths
So yes, a seed infection starting in October could yield the numbers we are seeing now. And even if you change the lag period or rate of transmission you still have to account for the fact that infections won't lead to death at the same rate for all infections, meaning obviously when older people contract the virus they are more likely to die.
So, you could even push things back further assuming that younger people will catch it first because they are the ones that are primarily taking mass transit or attending large events. Then it will trickle to the older more at risk segment of the population.
There is just no way to believe that China has had this infection since October and that we had 800k people come here from China during that time to think that the seed started later than 2019.
And for the last time - My graph was not intended to describe the situation in NY. Then you would have to play with other factors because the total population is smaller and as more people contract the virus the transmisson rate decreases (over a certain threshold of people infected). In a larger area (ie the US) that theshold is much higher and you can run a simulation up until this point without having to change your assumption of infection rate over time.
Last edited by thethe; 03-30-2020 at 05:24 PM.
Natural Immunity Croc
Trump just doubled-down on this asinine theory blaming frontline medical professionals for needing more masks.
"Go to the hospital and find out how come you used to get 10,000 masks and you had a full hospital? New York City, always full...How do you go from 10,000 to 300,000?"
All of that is either nonsense or irrelevant. If those numbers are supposed to be for the whole US*, then your model is even dumber, since the death rate acceleration in NY alone is now massively outpacing what you think the whole country should look like.
*this is irrelevant, since you can do the same dumb thought experiment for any land unit, but it is your own stupid point.
And then you can play with original infection or the lag time. This is all nitpicking so you can avoid the reality of the fact that the infection has been here since early q4.All of that is either nonsense or irrelevant. If those numbers are supposed to be for the whole US, then your model is even dumber, since the death rate acceleration in NY alone is now massively outpacing what you think the whole country should look like.
So lets go another way. I assume you respect fauchi. What are your thoughts on his saying the travel ban with china was a big factor?
Silver linings
Post of the day right here.
Here is crystal clear evidence that you are trolling: your numbers above stop at March 1 and then jump to March 31. Amazingly convenient that you skip over the entire period when people were actually dying in NY (Mar 14 - Present). That's the part you are supposed to explain, and you don't even bother. Because obviously if you project your numbers forward they don't line up with the real world "doubling every two days" phenomenon that starts at that point.
The other obvious troll move is to pivot to some unrelated gotcha question. A classic of the genre.
I'm not gonna play. Either show me how deaths start doubling every two days in mid-March in NY, or give it a rest. If you can't, then I would kindly request you keep your trolling out of the thread about how thousands of people in the city where I live are dying of a virus.
Love these stories. Might start a new thread on them
Tapate50 (03-30-2020)
I feel like if Meta were a video game character, he'd be a smart aleck doctor/professor in one of those classic 90's point and click PC games.
No model will ever show that because the model isn't there to predict deaths by day. The deaths are a lagging factor of the number of infections which is projectable. I would have thought that was obvious. Nobodies model will predict deaths by 2 day period to match the actuals. Thats just absolute horse**** and you know it.
This continues to go back to the fact that you somehow think that over 400k people came here from China in Q4 and not one of them had the virus. While I may say some absurd **** a lot here that is right up there with the most ridiculous.
Its obvious the virus was here for a long time and you can't come to face the reality because of your pride.
So now that I have responded to your comment about how no model will every accurately project deaths by day please then answer how you think its possible that no infection was here prior to 2020.
Natural Immunity Croc
Alright now this is just hysterical.
Natural Immunity Croc
It would be great if reporters did their job and proved him wrong. Wouldn't you say?
Natural Immunity Croc
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....23.20039446v2
This seems to contradict the WHO which recently stated the virus could only transmitted via droplets.
It would be great if Captain Queeg wasn't worried about strawberries
Worrying about the misuse of vital equipment during a pandemic. What nerve.
Random testing coming soon.
Fanatstic.
People should revolt in the streets if the US gives one more cent to the WHO.
Natural Immunity Croc
well here we are. Koch founder and head of the John Birch Society has finally gotten a seat in the White House
Get us out of the UN. Took them 70 years, but hey lets relitigate the 1932 election
Anyone ever wondered how Koch came around to Trump --- here you go
Last edited by 57Brave; 03-30-2020 at 07:42 PM.
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