The Coronavirus, not the beer

[thethe]

Heck of a sample there.

In the last 3 days I haven't had explosive diarrhea, time to go eat a whole pizza hut stuffed crust pizza because I'm immune.

Would you like to go the last 14 days? 21? 28?

The whole point is the trend line is going down the linger the state reopened.

The experts were all wrong.

[zitothebrave]

Would you like to go the last 14 days? 21? 28?

The whole point is the trend line is going down the linger the state reopened.

The experts were all wrong.

Yes, Georgia would have no interest in underreporting data. Their test rate isn't great, and the virus has a loaded delay. I don't think you're wrong that the Virus was here early. But it took a long time to hit pandemic levels because it has a long load time. We'll see where we are in a few weeks. Again, the only cases we're seeing in most states are people ill enough to go to the hospital or well off enough to get tested and not care about the health care costs.

[thethe]

Yes, Georgia would have no interest in underreporting data. Their test rate isn't great, and the virus has a loaded delay. I don't think you're wrong that the Virus was here early. But it took a long time to hit pandemic levels because it has a long load time. We'll see where we are in a few weeks. Again, the only cases we're seeing in most states are people ill enough to go to the hospital or well off enough to get tested and not care about the health care costs.

I appreciate you saying that Zito. It was very clear to me the virus has been ripping through the population since q4 2019.

While this of course does not include the full population of positives the rate of positives informs us if enough testing is being done. Rate of 5% or lower are fantastic and if it is biased towards those that have severe conditions then I think that's an even better signs as it indicates the low lethality I've always thought this virus had.

[zitothebrave]

I don't think 2019, but it certainly was starting in late January/Early February. Where it was masked with normal seasonal influenza.

We won't want know the mortality rate of the virus. We only can look at total deaths, but we know we have had at least 66,000 deaths more than experected as of the end of April. We're gonna wind up with more expected deaths than WWI, of course not adjusted for population. But for another perspective. It's more poeple than have died in all wars and military interventions since Vietnam. It's nothing to turn your nose up at. And that is with protective measures in place to delay the strain on the medical system.

[thethe]

I don't think 2019, but it certainly was starting in late January/Early February. Where it was masked with normal seasonal influenza.

We won't want know the mortality rate of the virus. We only can look at total deaths, but we know we have had at least 66,000 deaths more than experected as of the end of April. We're gonna wind up with more expected deaths than WWI, of course not adjusted for population. But for another perspective. It's more poeple than have died in all wars and military interventions since Vietnam. It's nothing to turn your nose up at. And that is with protective measures in place to delay the strain on the medical system.

They've shown propel that died in early January with COVID. With incubation period and the fact that the first person infected likely did not die its an easy lift to say it was here in q4.

Please be careful with excess mortality. We have no way of knowing yet the deats CAUSED by the lockdown.

[zitothebrave]

I mean how could a lockdown cause more death. Be real. How could limiting exposure cause more death? When we know that large gatherings of people have lead directly to numbers of people gathering and illness. USA was lucky that this didn't break in September during the MLB playoffs and NFL season. One of the reasons places like the UK and Italy were hit so hard was because of their Soccer clubs and very familiar behavior. There's no remote evidence that lockdown causes any extra deaths. If anything our **** healthcare system and working poor class caused deaths cause of lockdown more than the lockdown.

[thethe]

I mean how could a lockdown cause more death. Be real. How could limiting exposure cause more death? When we know that large gatherings of people have lead directly to numbers of people gathering and illness. USA was lucky that this didn't break in September during the MLB playoffs and NFL season. One of the reasons places like the UK and Italy were hit so hard was because of their Soccer clubs and very familiar behavior. There's no remote evidence that lockdown causes any extra deaths. If anything our **** healthcare system and working poor class caused deaths cause of lockdown more than the lockdown.

People aren't going to the hospital for cancer and other non covid related diseases.

Suicide is up. Drug use is up. There are many other examples.

And then you have long term death issues such as screenings not happening.

[Runnin]

The experts were all wrong.

Stop saying this. It's not true.

"Experts" don't claim that prediction models are exact. They're often worst case scenarios. Many of the numbers used to create the models are themselves estimates.

[nsacpi]

Excess mortality in Sweden indicates official COVID data are understating deaths by about 30%. Similar to other countries.

[sturg33]

[zitothebrave]

People aren't going to the hospital for cancer and other non covid related diseases.

Suicide is up. Drug use is up. There are many other examples.

And then you have long term death issues such as screenings not happening.

Those people wouldn't be getting screenings if the hospitals were full of people on ventilators getting treatment.

[nsacpi]

might want to check the math

[thethe]

Those people wouldn't be getting screenings if the hospitals were full of people on ventilators getting treatment.

There are only a handful of hospitals that were ever overrun and would have ever been based in the data.

[sturg33]

might want to check the math

The Sweden numbers are 1.5% which the table very clearly messed the conversion up while rounding up to 2%.

But when looking at it that way, UK and Holland have smaller rates... while every other country has higher.

[nsacpi]

The Sweden numbers are 1.5% which the table very clearly messed the conversion up while rounding up to 2%.

But when looking at it that way, UK and Holland have smaller rates... while every other country has higher.

Ginn's off by a decimal point for Sweden and some of the other numbers in the third column of his table might be off too

[sturg33]

Ginn's off by a decimal point for Sweden and some of the other numbers in the third column of his table might be off too

It's not Ginn's table but pulled from the article linked.

But you are correct in pointing out the error

[nsacpi]

I was glad to see Notre Dame moving forward with fall classes. They will implement a comprehensive program of testing, tracing and quarantine as part of that.

I hope other schools end up in a similar place. They will have to have contingency plans for going online for a given class if there is a need. But hopefully as many schools as possible open up this fall.

[nsacpi]

It's not Ginn's table but pulled from the article linked.

But you are correct in pointing out the error

The number for the UK is also wrong.

[sturg33]

I was glad to see Notre Dame moving forward with fall classes. They will implement a comprehensive program of testing, tracing and quarantine as part of that.

I hope other schools end up in a similar place. They will have to have contingency plans for going online for a given class if there is a need. But hopefully as many schools as possible open up this fall.

There is zero reason to cancel society for people at essentially zero risk

[nsacpi]

Spain looks to have the lowest rate in the table Ginn referenced. I'm not really sure the data mean much. Practices regarding testing children probably varied widely by country and drove the data.