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Thread: The Coronavirus, not the beer

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    It's OVER 5,000! msstate7's Avatar
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    UMMC (univ. of miss. Medical center, largest hospital in miss.) laid off 250 workers. They were losing over a million a day since the shut down.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    That's one way or looking at it. Here's another...

    There are only 8 states with more deaths than the NY nursing homes: NY, NJ, MA, MI, PA, IL, CA, and CT. NY nursing home confirmed deaths is 3322.

    https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics...g_home_acf.pdf

    And yet they only represent 20% of the NY confirmed COVID deaths. So, are we still saying that only people in nursing homes are at risk?

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    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    70K excess deaths compared to the upper bounds. It's even more if you compare to average. And if you look at the CDC numbers, they're usually pretty on point. Only off twice in the last 3 years, Covid 19 and a few excess January Deaths. For example last first week in April we had about 56K deaths, this year 76K. Again, you're the one arguing against facts spouting information from Reefer Madness 2.0
    And again, these excess deaths are occurring during a paradigm shift the world has never seen.
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Just wanted to point out something with respect to how quickly the virus spreads without mitigation. Its reproductive cycle is less than ten days. So a reproductive number of 3 means that over a month you are looking at an increase in the number of infected people on the order of 3 cubed. If the reproductive number is 2 it grows by 2 cubed over 30 days. So conservatively it is growing by a factor of 10 per month, which explains why a few days of hesitation over closing subways or ordering people to stay at home can be so deadly.

    My own admittedly very rough estimate is we had around 3 million infected people in mid-March. If nothing happened we would have had around 30 million mid-April. However, a lot of things kicked in around mid-March. Spontaneous social distancing. Government mandated measures. So by mid-April we had maybe 5 million infected people instead of 30 million. But to me this difference is what I come to in terms of lives saved. 25 million cases difference is equivalent to 100,000-200,000 extra deaths. It is a number. And that is just one cycle. If you think about the subsequent cycle you have one scenario where your baseline is 25 million infections and a second one where it is 5 million. So the difference in deaths keeps accumulating.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-28-2020 at 09:15 AM.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

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    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    And yet they only represent 20% of the NY confirmed COVID deaths. So, are we still saying that only people in nursing homes are at risk?
    no we are saying the ineptness of democratic leadership inflated the death count.

    Nobody has ever said that the virus wasn't deadly for a subset of the population
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    "They don’t have a right to object. That is the rule and that is the regulation and they have to comply with that,” Cuomo said during his daily briefing in Albany.
    And that has what to do with the facts I stated?

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    Connoisseur of Minors zitothebrave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    The curve is in steep decline.

    Forget flatten.

    Why is that the people who want to continue forever lockdown vote the same way?
    I don't know anyone who wants to be locked down forever.
    Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    no we are saying the ineptness of democratic leadership inflated the death count.

    Nobody has ever said that the virus wasn't deadly for a subset of the population
    So Dem leadership is to blame... even though the percentage of deaths in nursing homes in Republican states are far worse than NY?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    So Dem leadership is to blame... even though the percentage of deaths in nursing homes in Republican states are far worse than NY?
    Percentages are a funny thing with small denominators.
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Percentages are a funny thing with small denominators.
    I mean GA has nearly 2k deaths at this point. Florida has over 2k deaths. That's a decent enough sample size for percentage variances to level off.

    Would you prefer combining all the Republican states numbers and their nursing home deaths?

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Percentages are a funny thing with small denominators.
    Not small at all in this situation.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  12. The Following User Says Thank You to nsacpi For This Useful Post:

    Carp (05-28-2020)

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    Connoisseur of Minors zitothebrave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    And again, these excess deaths are occurring during a paradigm shift the world has never seen.
    But again, that's not true.

    Here how about we look outside of the US to a country who's dealt with this before.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-death-number/

    South Korea is a country with a plan for epidemics and pandemics.
    Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg

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    Connoisseur of Minors zitothebrave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Percentages are a funny thing with small denominators.
    Says the person who made the argument

    You realize this is why no one takes you seriously.
    Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    I mean GA has nearly 2k deaths at this point. Florida has over 2k deaths. That's a decent enough sample size for percentage variances to level off.

    Would you prefer combining all the Republican states numbers and their nursing home deaths?
    All this means is that all states are not equal in how the virus spread to the general population. In the aggregate democratic leadership caused much more devastation to the nursing home population.
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    Says the person who made the argument

    You realize this is why no one takes you seriously.
    You should have when I said this was overblown on march 24th.
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Data update on percentage of tests coming back positive for some states that have reopened:

    Florida: 2.6% past seven days vs 3.7% a week ago. Looking good.

    Texas: 5.7% down from 5.8% a week ago. Not bad.

    Georgia: 5.9% vs 3.9%. Starting to trend up. But some of the recent data look a bit funky.

    There are some states where the trends are becoming quite worrisome.

    Missouri: 24.4 vs 4.3. Could that be right? I think the trend is up but there may be a data entry problem.

    Alabama: 8.7 vs 7.7

    Arkansas: 5.8 vs 4.6

    South Carolina: 3.6 vs 2.8

    Tennessee: 4.7 vs 4.0

    West Virginia: 3.3 vs 1.3

    In general testing is being increased, which tends to bias the percentage positive down over time.

    The 7-day average for the whole country ticked up a couple tenths yesterday. Hopefully, just a blip.

    New York: 3.7 vs 5.6. Yeah we learned the hard way not to mess around with this.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-28-2020 at 10:01 AM.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    My wife and I have been staying with her family the last month.

    Her sister tested positive yesterday and we are all symptomatic and getting tested today.

    Fortunate that so far the worst symptoms for everyone have been similar to a bad flu, so hopefully it doesn’t escalate. It’s still early for us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    My wife and I have been staying with her family the last month.

    Her sister tested positive yesterday and we are all symptomatic and getting tested today.

    Fortunate that so far the worst symptoms for everyone have been similar to a bad flu, so hopefully it doesn’t escalate. It’s still early for us.
    Prayers for you and your family!

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    Connoisseur of Minors zitothebrave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    My wife and I have been staying with her family the last month.

    Her sister tested positive yesterday and we are all symptomatic and getting tested today.

    Fortunate that so far the worst symptoms for everyone have been similar to a bad flu, so hopefully it doesn’t escalate. It’s still early for us.
    Sorry to hear tat, hope you all get out te other side well
    Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg

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    It's OVER 5,000! 57Brave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chop2chip View Post
    My wife and I have been staying with her family the last month.

    Her sister tested positive yesterday and we are all symptomatic and getting tested today.

    Fortunate that so far the worst symptoms for everyone have been similar to a bad flu, so hopefully it doesn’t escalate. It’s still early for us.
    good luck
    The best way to stop a bad guy with a gun is to make sure he doesn’t get a gun.

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