The Coronavirus, not the beer

[nsacpi]

Just to do some math, Spain has a population of 47 million. 5% of that is 2.35 million. It has suffered 27,000 official COVID-19 deaths. That gives you an IFR of 1.1%.

It is likely that the official numbers understate the actual number of COVID-19 deaths. Adjusting for this would bring the IFR close to 1.5%.

Of course not all countries will have the same experience. And undoubtedly there is variance within Spain, demographically and geographically.

It could be that the future course of COVID-19 will look different in Spain and elsewhere. But if we simply scale things up by a factor of 10 (to get to 50% of the population infected), then I think the case for buying time (for a vaccine or better treatments) looks compelling.

[thethe]

Stop posting relevant stuff and let me gloat.

[thethe]

Just to do some math, Spain has a population of 47 million. 5% of that is 2.35 million. It has suffered 27,000 official COVID-19 deaths. That gives you an IFR of 1.1%.

It is likely that the official numbers understate the actual number of COVID-19 deaths. Adjusting for this would bring the IFR close to 1.5%.

Of course not all countries will have the same experience. And undoubtedly there is variance within Spain, demographically and geographically.

It could be that the future course of COVID-19 will look different in Spain and elsewhere. But if we simply scale things up by a factor of 10 (to get to 50% of the population infected), then I think the case for buying time (for a vaccine or better treatments) looks compelling.

You aren't factoring in lag.

[Carp]

No...the 20k number wad clearly wrong but we are clearly overstating deaths unless Dr. Brix is part of the conspiracy.

And Fauci disagrees, says we have actually undercounted deaths. An opinion does not make it fact.

[thethe]

And Fauci disagrees, says we have actually undercounted deaths. An opinion does not make it fact.

Fauchi is an opinion.

Brix is referencing CDC policy.

Hysterical you guys don't see the difference.

[Carp]

The ones we have missed.

Hahaha hahaha

Dude. There are a ton of cases of people dying in their homes that aren't counted on the official death count because they were never tested. Literally everyone acknowledges this is true.

[thethe]

Dude. There are a ton of cases of people dying in their homes that aren't counted on the official death count because they were never tested. Literally everyone acknowledges this is true.

Yeah...someone died with shortness of breath.

COVID!

Go look at the list of symptoms and tell me you don't have those numerous times a month.

Its a joke and uneducated people just nod with approval.

[Krgrecw]

Yeah...someone died with shortness of breath.

COVID!

Go look at the list of symptoms and tell me you don't have those numerous times a month.

Its a joke and uneducated people just nod with approval.

Hospitals get more for COVID deaths. Of course they’ll overstate the deaths, they are a business too.

[Carp]

Fauchi is an opinion.

Brix is referencing CDC policy.

Hysterical you guys don't see the difference.

Both are, in fact, opinions. I'm sure Fauci's opinion is grounded in statistics and peer reviewed cases as well. What is hilarious is that you immediately dismiss any opinions that aren't aligned with your own.

[thethe]

Hospitals get more for COVID deaths. Of course they’ll overstate the deaths, they are a business too.

IT WAS OBVIOUS

[thethe]

Both are, in fact, opinions. I'm sure Fauci's opinion is grounded in statistics and peer reviewed cases as well. What is hilarious is that you immediately dismiss any opinions that aren't aligned with your own.

The basis of Birx statement is not an option. It is official CDC policy.

[Carp]

Hospitals get more for COVID deaths. Of course they’ll overstate the deaths, they are a business too.

Hospitals don't make those reports. Doctors do.

[thethe]

Hospitals don't make those reports. Doctors do.

I don't think that's true but I could be wrong about that.

[chop2chip]

Hospitals don't make those reports. Doctors do.

Regardless who files these reports, the incentives are clearly in place to label deaths as COVID.

I think this is pretty widely accepted at this point that it’s happening.

[Carp]

Yeah...someone died with shortness of breath.

COVID!

Go look at the list of symptoms and tell me you don't have those numerous times a month.

Its a joke and uneducated people just nod with approval.

People don't typically have ALL or even most of those systems in a given month. And they usually don't tend to die from them.

But please, continue to keep your head in the sand.

[thethe]

People don't typically have ALL or even most of those systems in a given month. And they usually don't tend to die from them.

But please, continue to keep your head in the sand.

Old people die from these symptoms but these symptoms occur naturally.

We just decided collectively for some.reason to call them all COVID deaths.

How can you be so blind?

[Carp]

Regardless who files these reports, the incentives are clearly in place to label deaths as COVID.

I think this is pretty widely accepted at this point that it’s happening.

Not saying it isn't happening. I'm sure it is to some degree, though I would wager the percentage is very low. Doctors have much less incentive to lie about the cause of death.

[thethe]

Regardless who files these reports, the incentives are clearly in place to label deaths as COVID.

I think this is pretty widely accepted at this point that it’s happening.

People hate being wrong after investing so much into an issue.

Its clear COVID deaths are overstated in addition to bad policy spiking those numbers needlessly.

[thethe]

Not saying it isn't happening. I'm sure it is to some degree, though I would wager the percentage is very low. Doctors have much less incentive to lie about the cause of death.

Yeah, only their hospitals livelihood which emoy them and the rest of the hospital staff.

We told hospitals they can't do any elective procedures and provided economic incentives to label deaths and admissions as COVID.

Its so obvious.

[Carp]

Old people die from these symptoms but these symptoms occur naturally.

We just decided collectively for some.reason to call them all COVID deaths.

How can you be so blind?

We're not calling them all covid deaths. And again, you miss the point. People don't tend to have all or even most of these symptoms together.