Is this not a very friendly extension???? Is Rendon really worth that much more then CY?
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...lion-extension
Is this not a very friendly extension???? Is Rendon really worth that much more then CY?
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...lion-extension
I hate when teams take advantage of foreign players.
Coppy
Just quick, rough, back of the napkin stuff, but I'd put his value in that period around $350 million. So yeah, that's pretty team friendly.
A couple of questions will determine who this deal favors (though I'm not sure how 200+ million can't favor a player). Will this buyout his current contract or will it just be added onto his current deal starting in 2022 since that would be a team option year? If it's the latter, it's a very good deal for him. Currently, he'll be 31 by the time he's a FA, so the odds he tops 220 million at 31 years old doesn't seem particularly likely, imo. If it's the former, it's a huge win for the Brew Crew, as it essentially only adds 177 million over 6 years in new money for a top 5 player in baseball.
With the injury last year, Yelich may feel like he should get paid while he can and this is probably the top out range for the Brew Crew.
Last edited by Carp; 03-04-2020 at 10:49 AM.
jpx7 (03-04-2020)
Yelich would get way more on the open market. Like, wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more. this is super team-friendly. good for him for wanting to stick with the Brew Crew.
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
It is a friendly extension if true.
Rendon is a much more valuable player on average though. Last 3 years Rendon has been a 6.5 WAR player with much more consistency. Yelich has been amazing for the Brewers. But he was less great for the Marlins. Still high quality but a 5 win player.
As far as why, remember that Yelich is under team control for 2 more years with an option, by the time he would hit FA he would be over 30, I also think Yelich is much more likely to fade as he gets older than Rendon.
Consider his top comps from B-Ref who were also CF, McCutchen, Beltran, Kemp, and Wells. Wells is probably the most exteme example as he came crashing down at 28. A Few good years here and there, but he was done playing baseball in the majors by 35. Through 28 Cutch was a perennial Allstar and an MVP candidate. Winning it once and finishing top 5 3 more times. He hit 29 and the wheels came off a bit. His glove took a downturn, his bat took a downturn. Even the year his offense was fine (2017) it was a shade of it's former self. Kemp I wouldn't compare to Yelich because he's a thicc boi. Kemp peaked in 2011, and just kind of got bad. He either didn't hit enough for a corner outfielder or didn't field enough for a CF. Let's move off the negatives to the positive. Beltran. After turning 30 Beltran wasn't an MVP anymore. But he did still get named to an allstar game or 2. From 31-39 (years of this extension) he compiled a 22.6 rWAR. Which isn't bad. And 22.5 fWAR. If Yelich is the same, he would be well worth that extension.
The risk the club is taking is they're thinking he's more Beltran less McCutchen. The risk he's taking is he would get more on the open market, but if he gets hurt or starts to downturn in 2020-2022 his value will plummet as everyone assumes he's another McCutchen or Vernon Wells.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
jpx7 (03-04-2020), UNCBlue012 (03-04-2020), zbhargrove (03-04-2020)
Yeah. Team friendly deal. For the 7 extra years I come up with a price of 6-7M per expected WAR. Below market, which has been 8-9M per WAR for free agents in recent years.
I'm projecting he averages 4 WAR per season in those 7 extra years, which would be his age 30-36 seasons.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
jpx7 (03-04-2020)
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
The Brewers have a very underrated FO.
you said “much more valuable on average.” then spoke of Rendon’s last 3 years...a timeframe that Yelich has a higher average fWAR across. not sure how you’re painting yourself as right on that statement. Rendon is definitely not much more valuable than Yelich, “on average” or otherwise.
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
Yeah, the fact that it begins in 2022 and not 2021 does change the calculus a bit. Still pretty friendly, but considering how the FA market has been treating 30 year olds in the last couple or three offseasons, there would probably be more difference between what he could have gotten at 30 and at 29 than is reasonable.
I mean I personally feel that a player who when healthy has been a lock for 6.5 WAR has more value than a player who has ranged from a 4.1 to a 7.8. It's a personal preference. Consider the comparison of Scott Rolen and Vlad Guerrero. Scott Rolen never ascended as high as Guerrero. Rolen was infinitely less sexy. But when he was healthy he was a 5+ WAR player. That comparison is more extreme because Rolen is much better than Rendon, but my point is that there is value to a consistent player to me. If Yelich does it again this year, he'll pass Rendon.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg