The 2020 Draft Thread

[Carp]

Following up on my previous. I'd be interested in seeing if our pitching not named Soroka could net any of the below. I would absolutely deal Fried or Folty for Jasson Dominguez... though I understand the Yankees are unlikely to go for it.

Baltimore – Gunnar Henderson
Yankees – Jasson Dominguez, Oswald Peraza, Anthony Volpe
Toronto – Jordan Goshans, Orelvis Martinez
KC – Erick Pena
Minny – Keoni Cavaco, Wander Javier
Seattle - Noelvi Marte
Texas – Maximo Acosta
Pittsburgh – Liover Peguero, Travis Swaggerty, Sammy Siani
San Fran – Heliot Ramos, Hunter Bishop, Alexander Canario, Luis Toribio

Fried? I don't really see the need for a contending team to trade a young 3 WAR pitcher with several years of cheap team control for a prospect, or even multiple prospects.

I'm down to trade Folty however. But with 1.5 years remaining of control and coming off the season he just did, I can't imagine his value is super high. Maybe if there is a season and he performs well, we could net a couple 50FV types in the off-season, or may be one 55 FV type of prospect if we find a team desperate enough.

[weso1]

I like it. With the good start to Shewmake's career it's a smart move to stick with the same type of pick. Schumer is pretty much as close as you can get to that pick. AA obviously sees something in that name.

[CJ9]

Law on Schuster: "I had him ranked at 26, I think, and I don't think he was sliding much farther than that. He was probably going yesterday no matter what."

I don't think the discount is going to be what people expect.

[IslandBrave]

Law on Schuster: "I had him ranked at 26, I think, and I don't think he was sliding much farther than that. He was probably going yesterday no matter what."

I don't think the discount is going to be what people expect.

Maybe not, but I’m sure the Braves had a number on him and others to see what they’d accept.

[Tapate50]

Law on Schuster: "I had him ranked at 26, I think, and I don't think he was sliding much farther than that. He was probably going yesterday no matter what."

I don't think the discount is going to be what people expect.

Probably not.

The folks not liking the pick are being argumentative just to be so.

It’s a fine pick as LHP, can touch mid 90s, hammer change up and a bump in stuff and control of late.

There’s literally nothing to complain about at 26.

People just like hot takes. Baseball draft isn’t anything definitive like other sports.

[striker42]

If the Braves are absolutely convinced the new command is real. And they're convinced the new velocity is real. And they're convinced the breaking ball will come along. Then I understand the pick.

My main reservations are

1- The opportunity cost (there were other players I liked better there thought I admit there could be signability issues we don't know about)
2- The number of "ifs". Like I said, we need the command, the velocity and the breaking ball to all be legit. A player who needs to hit on multiple major questions makes me nervous.

Something in favor of this pick is the fact that if Shuster's season hadn't been truncated and he continues to pitch like he did at the start of the season, you're talking about a top 15 pick with a ceiling that's likely higher than has been assigned to him thus far. On the other hand, if he regresses to the mean then this isn't a good pick at all. Especially if he loses his improved control.

[50PoundHead]

Probably not.

The folks not liking the pick are being argumentative just to be so.

It’s a fine pick as LHP, can touch mid 90s, hammer change up and a bump in stuff and control of late.

There’s literally nothing to complain about at 26.

People just like hot takes. Baseball draft isn’t anything definitive like other sports.

It's unlike the other professional sports drafts in so many ways. Teams look at players at markedly different stages in their development arcs in trying to assess who to pick. Add to that the fact that high school and junior college players have more options than in other drafts and it adds another layer of complexity.

Like many others, I am intrigued by toolsy players, but then the ghost of Chuck Lamar suddenly appears and scares the wits out of me.

[striker42]

Probably not.

The folks not liking the pick are being argumentative just to be so.

It’s a fine pick as LHP, can touch mid 90s, hammer change up and a bump in stuff and control of late.

There’s literally nothing to complain about at 26.

People just like hot takes. Baseball draft isn’t anything definitive like other sports.

I don't think many dislike the pick. I think people either like it or are just kind of "meh" about it. But that seems to be AA's draft strategy now days. Uninspiring college picks early (not bad picks, just not terribly exciting picks) to leverage into greater aggressiveness later. It's a valid strategy. Not what I'd employ but a valid strategy nonetheless.

[Heyward]

Following up on my previous. I'd be interested in seeing if our pitching not named Soroka could net any of the below. I would absolutely deal Fried or Folty for Jasson Dominguez... though I understand the Yankees are unlikely to go for it.

Baltimore – Gunnar Henderson
Yankees – Jasson Dominguez, Oswald Peraza, Anthony Volpe
Toronto – Jordan Goshans, Orelvis Martinez
KC – Erick Pena
Minny – Keoni Cavaco, Wander Javier
Seattle - Noelvi Marte
Texas – Maximo Acosta
Pittsburgh – Liover Peguero, Travis Swaggerty, Sammy Siani
San Fran – Heliot Ramos, Hunter Bishop, Alexander Canario, Luis Toribio

Huge pass on trading Fried. Trading Folty makes sense if the return is good with Wright, Anderson, Davidson, Muller, Touki, among others in the pipeline, and whatever FA SP's AA adds.

[Enscheff]

I remember thinking the Braves took an upside gamble on Allard in 2015.

I remember how angry I was at the Anderson, Wentz, Muller picks in 2016.

I remember how stoked I was when the Braves drafted Wright in 2017.

I remember that Stewart was supposed to be a stud in 2018.

So many pitchers.....

Then, I realize that I never knew who Soroka was prior to the draft...and he's the stud of them all.

Anyone thinking they have any idea about what a pitcher taken towards the back of the first round will become must detail their past projections on the arms the Braves recently took at the top of the first round. If those projections turned out correct, they are allowed to comment with any sort fo authority on Shuster. Until then, he's just as good as any other arm available at the time.

[CJ9]

I remember thinking the Braves took an upside gamble on Allard in 2015.

I remember how angry I was at the Anderson, Wentz, Muller picks in 2016.

I remember how stoked I was when the Braves drafted Wright in 2017.

I remember that Stewart was supposed to be a stud in 2018.

Then, I realize that I never knew who Soroka was prior to the draft...and he's the stud of them all.

Anyone thinking they have any idea about what a pitcher taken towards the back of the first round will become must detail their past projections on the arms the Braves recently took at the top of the first round. If those projections turned out correct, they are allowed to comment with any sort fo authority on Shuster. Until then, he's just as good as any other arm available at the time.

If my memory is correct, I think the Soroka pick created more anger than any of them -- myself included.

[striker42]

I remember thinking the Braves took an upside gamble on Allard in 2015.

I remember how angry I was at the Anderson, Wentz, Muller picks in 2016.

I remember how stoked I was when the Braves drafted Wright in 2017.

I remember that Stewart was supposed to be a stud in 2018.

So many pitchers.....

Then, I realize that I never knew who Soroka was prior to the draft...and he's the stud of them all.

Anyone thinking they have any idea about what a pitcher taken towards the back of the first round will become must detail their past projections on the arms the Braves recently took at the top of the first round. If those projections turned out correct, they are allowed to comment with any sort fo authority on Shuster. Until then, he's just as good as any other arm available at the time.

Oddly enough, I loved the Soroka pick from the start. But I also thought Allard was a steal so I can't act like I'm some sort of Nostradamus.

I'm still on the Wright bandwagon. I think he's still got plenty of upside if he can just put it together. Sometimes that can take a bit.

I was a huge fan of the Stewart pick and was super annoyed when we didn't sign him. Medicals are a bear though.

Still not on the Anderson bandwagon. I still think he likely ends up as a number 4 starter.

[Nerfherders]

I don't mind the Shuster pick. Hard to really really love a #25 pick. However, I noted, rather angrily, that MLB Network, after showcasing every pick before and after for 10 minutes, had almost nothing on Shuster. A short clip, and Callis apologizing for ranking him #77. Then they went to commercial. Leiter didn't even get the chance to break him down, but did spit his name out at the end of the show as someone he liked.

[chop2chip]

The takes must flow.

+1

[Carp]

It's unlike the other professional sports drafts in so many ways. Teams look at players at markedly different stages in their development arcs in trying to assess who to pick. Add to that the fact that high school and junior college players have more options than in other drafts and it adds another layer of complexity.

Like many others, I am intrigued by toolsy players, but then the ghost of Chuck Lamar suddenly appears and scares the wits out of me.

Or Matt Lipka...... (shudder)

[OcalaBrave]

Or Matt Lipka...... (shudder)

George Lombard

[OcalaBrave]

Huge pass on trading Fried. Trading Folty makes sense if the return is good with Wright, Anderson, Davidson, Muller, Touki, among others in the pipeline, and whatever FA SP's AA adds.

“He’s possibly the best combination of tools, athleticism and performance that I’ve run across. Now, there’s a whole lot of time, a whole lot of at-bats and a whole lot of proving it between now and hopefully reaching the major leagues. Given his baseball background, his baseball acumen, his desire, his competitive nature, his work ethic, it’s never an easy thing to drop $5.1 million on one player, but he made it pretty easy.” – Yankees international scouting director Donny Rowland, via Baseball America’s Ben Badler

An unproven arm does not get you the #1 international prospect from last year. However, the Yankees need for controllable pitching might make Dominguez the centerpiece to a Fried deal. There isn't much I'd deal Fried for, but a chance at Dominguez is one of them. Fried may continue to develop, or he may follow the Folty path. Even on a contending team, I'm willing to take the gamble of dealing Fried and relying on one of, or a combination of, the young arms to give me the 165 IP and 4.00 ERA Max gave us last year if it nets me a potentially generational talent. It is merely a bonus the acquisition would permit the franchise to give the rest of baseball the middle finger by acquiring an international talent it was prohibited from acquiring.

[clvclv]

Probably not.

The folks not liking the pick are being argumentative just to be so.

It’s a fine pick as LHP, can touch mid 90s, hammer change up and a bump in stuff and control of late.

There’s literally nothing to complain about at 26.

People just like hot takes. Baseball draft isn’t anything definitive like other sports.

Why in the world does it have to be one or the other? No one's calling for AA's head for making the worst pick in franchise history, they've simply said they'd have preferred to use the pick on someone else. As 50 pointed out earlier, there's probably not a HUGE ceiling difference between Shuster and any of 6-8 other college guys that were available at that point. Shuster is one of the guys who literally wasn't discussed at any length (in this thread or elsewhere) as someone connected to the Braves at all - I have serious doubts that ANYONE was jumping up and down when his name was announced screaming "we got THE guy!!!".

Some people liked other guys better - I haven't seen anyone seriously complaining that he was some god-awful reach. He seemed to be improving over the previous year and a half, and had 4 really good starts before everything came to a screeching halt. Prior to that he'd always had control issues and his fastball was a few ticks slower. Small sample size is a concern with EVERY player. As plenty of others have pointed out - maybe he's turned a corner and his last 4 starts are what to expect moving forward, but there's just as much chance his control takes a step backward and he becomes Newk 2.0. Every report I've seen has mentioned the worst of his "three pitches" is his breaking ball, so it's perfectly reasonable to point to Newk if everything falls the right way rather than Fried.

[Heyward]

“He’s possibly the best combination of tools, athleticism and performance that I’ve run across. Now, there’s a whole lot of time, a whole lot of at-bats and a whole lot of proving it between now and hopefully reaching the major leagues. Given his baseball background, his baseball acumen, his desire, his competitive nature, his work ethic, it’s never an easy thing to drop $5.1 million on one player, but he made it pretty easy.” – Yankees international scouting director Donny Rowland, via Baseball America’s Ben Badler

An unproven arm does not get you the #1 international prospect from last year. However, the Yankees need for controllable pitching might make Dominguez the centerpiece to a Fried deal. There isn't much I'd deal Fried for, but a chance at Dominguez is one of them. Fried may continue to develop, or he may follow the Folty path. Even on a contending team, I'm willing to take the gamble of dealing Fried and relying on one of, or a combination of, the young arms to give me the 165 IP and 4.00 ERA Max gave us last year if it nets me a potentially generational talent. It is merely a bonus the acquisition would permit the franchise to give the rest of baseball the middle finger by acquiring an international talent it was prohibited from acquiring.

And on the flipside, who is replacing Fried? I dont think the Yankees would trade Dominguez for nothing short of a massive, massive haul. While Fried did have a ERA of 4, he had a dead arm near the end of the year.

Also, Yankees rotation in 21 is at least gonna be Cole, Sevy, one of Tanaka/Paxton, German, and Montgomery, they arent that desperate for SP.

[50PoundHead]

George Lombard

I'm just surprised that Chuck Lamar didn't end up as an NFL GM. I mean, he drafted enough football players.