The 2020 Draft Thread

[CJ9]

Every scouting report on Lange is the same. He throws really hard and touched 100 this spring, great athlete. But basically everything else — slider, changeup and command — needs serious work.

Hard pass from me there unless we could pull off a huge heist later, but that seems unlikely without a second rounder. No thanks.

[50PoundHead]

Every scouting report on Lange is the same. He throws really hard and touched 100 this spring, great athlete. But basically everything else — slider, changeup and command — needs serious work.

Hard pass from me there unless we could pull off a huge heist later, but that seems unlikely without a second rounder. No thanks.

If there's a year to not jerk around and worry about flipping slot money around by going way under slot in the first round, it's probably this one. I agree not having a second-round pick makes it difficult to be creative, so I'd just stay in the neighborhood of the first round slot (hopefully somewhat below, but not waaaaaay below) and see if there are some high school players who may be a moderate challenge to sign later and roll the savings in that direction.

I'm really curious to see which undrafted players, if any, with eligibility remaining will sign for $20,000 after the draft. Hopefully Anthopoulos has the name of the car dealer Coppolella used.

[Enscheff]

I can't remember ever being less interested in an MLB draft.

A FV 40/45 RHP it is for the Braves I guess.

[50PoundHead]

I can't remember ever being less interested in an MLB draft.

A FV 40/45 RHP it is for the Braves I guess.

Really hard to get excited when there's been no ability to really scout a lot of guys. Add that to the truncated draft and it's all kind of meh.

[CJ9]

Pipeline:


25. Braves
Callis: Jarred Kelley, RHP, Refugio (Texas) HS -- Despite having MLB's third-lowest bonus pool at $4,127,800, the Braves are chasing upside and think they can find a way to pay one of the top high school arms. If that can't happen, a college right-hander (Jarvis, Florida State's C.J. Van Eyk, McMahon, Mlodzinski) is a good guess for almost any team in the 20s.

Mayo: Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami -- On the college bat side, the Braves might like it if Justin Foscue were still available, and they could consider one of the high school arms, though signability for those could come into play.

[CJ9]

Kiley’s Mock:

25. Atlanta Braves

Tanner Witt, RHP, Episcopal HS (Texas), Texas commit: Witt is signable on Day 1 and not really after that, but his Carter Stewart starter kit is drawing lots of interest in the back half of the first round. Bitsko is a threat to go here, Jarvis has gotten some love and TrackMan favorites Sabato and Beeter have also been mentioned.

[CJ9]

Law has Witt #33: “Witt has run up boards this spring as a projectable, athletic kid who’s already 90-95 mph with huge spin on his breaking ball. He’s 6-foot-6 and gets on top of the ball well from a high 3/4 slot that drives the ball down into the zone, and his delivery works well enough that you can project him to start. He needs innings and work on a third pitch, but he’s so athletic that teams interested in rolling the dice on a high-ceiling prep arm are looking at him in the late first round.”

FG has Witt #30: “Witt is a prototypical high school pitching prospect with a big frame, picturesqe delivery, and curveball feel. Witt is not on some teams' draft boards. Texas is so full of prospects and so spread out, geographically, that teams often struggle to see all of the relevant prospects in a given area in a single trip. During a shortened spring this was especially true, and because Witt is a two-way player who also spent a lot of showcase time at third base the summer before the draft, teams have had even fewer looks at him. He is also rumored to be a tough sign. All of these make his stock quite volatile, but from a talent standpoint, Witt's combination of present velocity, physical projection and precocious curveball, belong in the back of round one.”

Pipeline has Witt #53: “Kevin Witt was the 28th overall pick in the 1994 Draft and hit 15 homers in five years in the big leagues. His son Tanner shows intriguing power potential as a third baseman but even more promise on the mound. One of the more projectable arms in the 2020 Draft, he could fit in the top three rounds if he's signable away from a Texas commitment -- which may not be possible.

At 6-foot-6 and 198 pounds, Witt has plenty of room to add strength and velocity, and he excited scouts by sitting at 92-93 mph and touching 95 in the final start of his truncated senior season. He usually works at 88-92 mph with his fastball, which features solid spin rates and some riding action. He also gets good spin rates on a mid-70s downer curveball that could become a plus offering once he adds more power, and he shows the aptitude to manipulate it into a harder, tighter slider.

Witt also demonstrates some feel for a changeup that he throws with fastball arm speed but arrives a bit firm in the mid-80s. He uses a high three-quarters arm slot to produce difficult angle and does a nice job of keeping his long levers in sync in his delivery. He's only scratching the surface of his potential as a pitcher and may need time to develop, but the payoff could be significant.”

[weso1]

Using the FV and LV numbers this is not looking like it's going to be a good draft for the Braves. At least in the first round.

[Skeeter31]

Law’s final mock on The Athletic has us taking Nick Swiney. Also mentions again his “hearing” we’re leaning heavily on HS in the later round (all 3 of them). He’s apparently basing this entirely on our draft last year and how we went HS in the late rounds. So this shows this is just something he’s made up and everyone is running with it.

[CJ9]

Anyone able to see who Baseball America’s latest draft has us taking? https://t.co/SmqOiLiPZc

[striker42]

I'm sure no matter who we pick it'll be a reach.

[Enscheff]

Law has Witt #33: “Witt has run up boards this spring as a projectable, athletic kid who’s already 90-95 mph with huge spin on his breaking ball. He’s 6-foot-6 and gets on top of the ball well from a high 3/4 slot that drives the ball down into the zone, and his delivery works well enough that you can project him to start. He needs innings and work on a third pitch, but he’s so athletic that teams interested in rolling the dice on a high-ceiling prep arm are looking at him in the late first round.”

FG has Witt #30: “Witt is a prototypical high school pitching prospect with a big frame, picturesqe delivery, and curveball feel. Witt is not on some teams' draft boards. Texas is so full of prospects and so spread out, geographically, that teams often struggle to see all of the relevant prospects in a given area in a single trip. During a shortened spring this was especially true, and because Witt is a two-way player who also spent a lot of showcase time at third base the summer before the draft, teams have had even fewer looks at him. He is also rumored to be a tough sign. All of these make his stock quite volatile, but from a talent standpoint, Witt's combination of present velocity, physical projection and precocious curveball, belong in the back of round one.”

Pipeline has Witt #53: “Kevin Witt was the 28th overall pick in the 1994 Draft and hit 15 homers in five years in the big leagues. His son Tanner shows intriguing power potential as a third baseman but even more promise on the mound. One of the more projectable arms in the 2020 Draft, he could fit in the top three rounds if he's signable away from a Texas commitment -- which may not be possible.

At 6-foot-6 and 198 pounds, Witt has plenty of room to add strength and velocity, and he excited scouts by sitting at 92-93 mph and touching 95 in the final start of his truncated senior season. He usually works at 88-92 mph with his fastball, which features solid spin rates and some riding action. He also gets good spin rates on a mid-70s downer curveball that could become a plus offering once he adds more power, and he shows the aptitude to manipulate it into a harder, tighter slider.

Witt also demonstrates some feel for a changeup that he throws with fastball arm speed but arrives a bit firm in the mid-80s. He uses a high three-quarters arm slot to produce difficult angle and does a nice job of keeping his long levers in sync in his delivery. He's only scratching the surface of his potential as a pitcher and may need time to develop, but the payoff could be significant.”

This kid sounds a bit like Touki.

[CJ9]

Apparently the Baseball America mock has Jarvis but they admit a lot of uncertainty.

[clvclv]

Apparently the Baseball America mock has Jarvis but they admit a lot of uncertainty.

It is...

Notes:
The Braves remain difficult to figure out. We’ve heard the rumors of high school arms, but there’s not one on the board that makes enough sense to get here (Nick Bitsko could get more money further down the board) and we also haven’t heard that rumor directly. We’ve gotten some reasonable feedback with Jarvis, and he fits on talent in this range.

[clvclv]

Funny thing that Callis mentions we could be on the HS arms if they fall despite the lack of pool money available - brings up another interesting question.

In the unlikely event there happens to be someone available at #96 that they really want (floated or not), do you punt the fourth and fifth round picks and just take someone you can sign for $100,000? If you treated those two picks that way, suddenly you have another $588,400 plus the $206,390 5% overage cushion. Even if you gave the #25 pick full slot you'd still have $1,393,890 to spend on pick #96.

Not sure that's enough to land them another significant signing, but who knows? That's slightly more than the slot value for the Brewers' pick at #53.

I did hear one of the "draft/prospect gurus" (not former player analysts) mention that he thinks punting on the later picks to try to make a splash with early picks is legitimately being considered as a viable strategy as it was something he'd heard more than a couple times. (Might've been Carlos Collazo on TV Monday, but my memory fails me at the moment.)

[CJ9]

Funny thing that Callis mentions we could be on the HS arms if they fall despite the lack of pool money available - brings up another interesting question.

In the unlikely event there happens to be someone available at #96 that they really want (floated or not), do you punt the fourth and fifth round picks and just take someone you can sign for $100,000? If you treated those two picks that way, suddenly you have another $588,400 plus the $206,390 5% overage cushion. Even if you gave the #25 pick full slot you'd still have $1,393,890 to spend on pick #96.

Not sure that's enough to land them another significant signing, but who knows? That's slightly more than the slot value for the Brewers' pick at #53.

I did hear one of the "draft/prospect gurus" (not former player analysts) mention that he thinks punting on the later picks to try to make a splash with early picks as something he'd heard as a viable strategy more than a couple times. (Might've been Carlos Collazo on TV Monday, but my memory fails me at the moment.)

I would do that without any hesitation. I’d much rather have two top talents than one and depth pieces.

The problem will be getting an impact talent to fall to 96. I just don’t know how to realistically do that when they’d have to fall past multiple teams that have multiple picks and gigantic bonus pools. Totally on board if we can do it though.

[Horsehide Harry]

I would do that without any hesitation. I’d much rather have two top talents than one and depth pieces.

The problem will be getting an impact talent to fall to 96. I just don’t know how to realistically do that when they’d have to fall past multiple teams that have multiple picks and gigantic bonus pools. Totally on board if we can do it though.

If Bitsko makes it to the Braves, why not throw as much of the draft pool is necessary to get him. Sure, they would be giving up 3,4,5 BUT those guys are going to have greater than usual uncertainty anyway. If you really like a guy....

[clvclv]

I would do that without any hesitation. I’d much rather have two top talents than one and depth pieces.

The problem will be getting an impact talent to fall to 96. I just don’t know how to realistically do that when they’d have to fall past multiple teams that have multiple picks and gigantic bonus pools. Totally on board if we can do it though.

I'd think the question at that point is "What do we define as an impact talent?"

Maybe it winds up getting you two high-ceiling HS arms that are going to take some time to develop like Kelley/Bitsko/Witt/Lange and maybe Cade Horton or Ty Floyd.

[50PoundHead]

I don't think the Braves' bonus pool is large enough to low-ball in the first and then get an above-slot guy somewhere in the third through fifth. You can't do in five rounds what the Braves did in the first 20 last year. There's just not that money to move around. Maybe it can be done, but you'd have to basically surrender the slot money in rounds four and five and push that forward to the third along with any savings from the first round. The other thing to consider is that even if you go considerably lower with bonus considerations in the first, who is going to be there in the third to warrant going over slot?

[CJ9]

Bitsko to Atlanta in a moderately credible mock: https://2080baseball.com/2020/06/202...k-draft-final/