The 2020 Draft Thread

[Super]

like literally last draft this SAME PERSON declared Shewmake couldn't play defense well enough anywhere.
once he started actually playing, the team and scouts alike said damn! this guy can play multiple positions very well! he's a very good defender! an almost immediate, full contradiction of what was stated. and still he wants to rush to snap judgments.

[50PoundHead]

Obviously you haven't bothered to read my posts - might want to go back and try.

Nobody expects a star at #25 - you're not getting a "steal" if you take guys like Shuster though. ESPECIALLY when you're trying to restock the lower levels.

AA was creaming himself before the Rays took Bitsko at #24 and panicked.

As others have said, the MLB draft is a lot different than other drafts (maybe hockey comes closest). Just read O'Brien's piece at The Athletic and the Braves were in contact with Shuster often over the past couple of weeks. They probably were in close contact with a lot of guys and probably have the bonus number pretty much nailed down for each of them, so if a preferred guy isn't there, they probably just go down the list to the next guy. Only thing that changes if they draft a guy like Bitsko or Kelley is that the pool considerations are altered dramatically because they are probably going way over slot to sign someone like that, which limits flexibility later. I can see the advantages/disadvantages in both approaches.

I haven't followed things as closely this spring, but Shuster looks a lot like the other college pitchers (Mlodzinski, Beeter, McMahon) who were in the mix as the Braves' pick in a lot of mocks. For all the talk of high school guys, most mocks had the Braves going with a college guy (usually a pitcher) in the first.

[OcalaBrave]

The selection of a College arm is likely indicative the Braves are ready to cash-in on some of the MLB ready arms in the upper minors. Anderson, Wright, Wilson, Muller, Davidson, Ynoa, De La Cruz, Weigel, Burrows, and Walker were all top 30 prospects slated for MLB/AAA in 2020 and there just isn't enough room for all these horses in the stable. Time to move some of them for MLB talent or cash them in for lower level guys with higher upside to make up for the international sanctions. The problem is you always need ready arms to fill a spot start in Atlanta. This pick will be that sooner than a high upside HS arm.

Time for Alex to get back into his trading suit.

[50PoundHead]

The selection of a College arm is likely indicative the Braves are ready to cash-in on some of the MLB ready arms in the upper minors. Anderson, Wright, Wilson, Muller, Davidson, Ynoa, De La Cruz, Weigel, Burrows, and Walker were all top 30 prospects slated for MLB/AAA in 2020 and there just isn't enough room for all these horses in the stable. Time to move some of them for MLB talent or cash them in for lower level guys with higher upside to make up for the international sanctions. The problem is you always need ready arms to fill a spot start in Atlanta. This pick will be that sooner than a high upside HS arm.

Time for Alex to get back into his trading suit.

Hadn't thought of that angle, but it's a legit take. I'm guessing that the intention in 2019 where they went for a lot of guys in Rounds 11-20 that were above slot was to create depth in the lower levels due to the international sanctions. We are just starting to feel the effects of those sanctions and will continue to feel them for the next few years. People tend to forget you can trade in two directions: (1) upwards for the big league team, and (2) downwards to net decent ceiling prospects for the lower levels.

[TheBravos]

This is all about day two. Not that they do not like him, but this hopefully gives them money to go after a few other players today. It worked last year....we shall see how they do today.

[clvclv]

As others have said, the MLB draft is a lot different than other drafts (maybe hockey comes closest). Just read O'Brien's piece at The Athletic and the Braves were in contact with Shuster often over the past couple of weeks. They probably were in close contact with a lot of guys and probably have the bonus number pretty much nailed down for each of them, so if a preferred guy isn't there, they probably just go down the list to the next guy. Only thing that changes if they draft a guy like Bitsko or Kelley is that the pool considerations are altered dramatically because they are probably going way over slot to sign someone like that, which limits flexibility later. I can see the advantages/disadvantages in both approaches.

I haven't followed things as closely this spring, but Shuster looks a lot like the other college pitchers (Mlodzinski, Beeter, McMahon) who were in the mix as the Braves' pick in a lot of mocks. For all the talk of high school guys, most mocks had the Braves going with a college guy (usually a pitcher) in the first.

We know they'd "been in contact with him", I can't imagine they'd have taken him otherwise. The problem I have with him is that the stuff and upside with him doesn't seem to match up with some of the other potential under slot targets. Hopefully I'm wrong and there's more there than appears on the surface.

While I've been in favor of trying to save money at #25 all along in the hope that we can get something much better at #96 than we're expecting to, you and others continue to point out the dangers that presents - and I don't disagree at all. If there's not significant savings to be had by taking Shuster (as Longenhagen suggests), choosing him over someone with higher upside with the pick just doesn't make much sense. If he doesn't come with a 15%-20% discount it's just hard to imagine the money saved will make the kind of impact we're likely to need to get something really good with that next pick.

I like Ocala's point about AA finally trading from the stockpile of arms, but we've been waiting for that to happen for a long time and I'm not convinced he's ever going to. With all the changes to the game and the way Pitchers are handled, hopefully having so many arms eventually works out as well. With the universal DH so close on the horizon, we're in as good a position to use an Opener in one or two rotation slots as anybody in the game.

[Skeeter31]

This is all about day two. Not that they do not like him, but this hopefully gives them money to go after a few other players today. It worked last year....we shall see how they do today.

Few is the operative word there as we only have 3 more picks. This isn’t like last years draft.

[50PoundHead]

We know they'd "been in contact with him", I can't imagine they'd have taken him otherwise. The problem I have with him is that the stuff and upside with him doesn't seem to match up with some of the other potential under slot targets. Hopefully I'm wrong and there's more there than appears on the surface.

While I've been in favor of trying to save money at #25 all along in the hope that we can get something much better at #96 than we're expecting to, you and others continue to point out the dangers that presents - and I don't disagree at all. If there's not significant savings to be had by taking Shuster (as Longenhagen suggests), choosing him over someone with higher upside with the pick just doesn't make much sense. If he doesn't come with a 15%-20% discount it's just hard to imagine the money saved will make the kind of impact we're likely to need to get something really good with that next pick.

I like Ocala's point about AA finally trading from the stockpile of arms, but we've been waiting for that to happen for a long time and I'm not convinced he's ever going to. With all the changes to the game and the way Pitchers are handled, hopefully having so many arms eventually works out as well. With the universal DH so close on the horizon, we're in as good a position to use an Opener in one or two rotation slots as anybody in the game.

I don't see an appreciable difference between Shuster and the other college pitchers available at #25 in terms of upside.

[clvclv]

I don't see an appreciable difference between Shuster and the other college pitchers available at #25 in terms of upside.

Maybe, maybe not - that's likely to differ for everyone. Comes down to personal preferences.

I personally liked Wilcox, McMahon, Henry, and Beeter better as SPs, and wouldn't have gone off the deep end if they'd have used the pick on Carraway and saved significant money (and all those guys are still on the board). Everybody's going to have different takes on each of those guys though.

[clvclv]

Longenhagen this morning...



Atlanta Braves
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
25 62 40+ Jared Shuster LHP 21.8 Wake Forest Deception, FB angle, breaking ball

If the four-start clinic that Shuster put on in his four 2020 starts is what he will be going forward, then I’m too low on him. He struggled with walks as an underclassmen, then started to improve on the Cape, then retained the strikes amid a serious stuff spike this year. He was throwing harder, his breaking ball had more power, and the extra velo helped the changeup, which is his best secondary.

[IslandBrave]

Maybe, maybe not - that's likely to differ for everyone. Comes down to personal preferences.

I personally liked Wilcox, McMahon, Henry, and Beeter better as SPs, and wouldn't have gone off the deep end if they'd have used the pick on Carraway and saved significant money (and all those guys are still on the board). Everybody's going to have different takes on each of those guys though.

Wilcox priced himself out of everyone’s range again.

[striker42]

once again, your oversimplification of how the draft works and the risk and reward with each player is laughable.

And your blind trust of the Braves brass as well as your inexplicable vitriol is also laughable

[Enscheff]

Longenhagen this morning...



Atlanta Braves
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
25 62 40+ Jared Shuster LHP 21.8 Wake Forest Deception, FB angle, breaking ball

If the four-start clinic that Shuster put on in his four 2020 starts is what he will be going forward, then I’m too low on him. He struggled with walks as an underclassmen, then started to improve on the Cape, then retained the strikes amid a serious stuff spike this year. He was throwing harder, his breaking ball had more power, and the extra velo helped the changeup, which is his best secondary.

The Braves have a long history of seeing a short spike in stuff, and using that spike as the “what if” scenario they use to rate guys. I suppose it’s logical to think a guy showing elite stuff at some point means he can do it regularly when he focuses on it as a professional, even though most teams are looking for more sophisticated signs of projectability.

So this pick fits the Braves almost perfectly.

[CJ9]

Kiley:

I've heard that his pick is likely below slot, so I get the thinking here as well: Lots of college arms look similar, so take the cheapest one that's in your mix on talent, and spend the savings later. Atlanta did this last year, going under at all of their high picks and spending what was left over on the prep prospects who got to them. I generally don't love this trade down, kick-the-can-down-the-road approach to things, but the execution of their high picks last year was strong and I had Shuster as a late-first-day talent, so it's fine.

Similar to Boston, Atlanta doesn't have a full complement of picks, so cutting with its top pick gives it some flexibility later. The thing to watch here is the Braves don't have dozens of picks to use to spread the money around like last year, so they have a handful of picks to find falling talents to match their draft pool, and thus have to be more aggressive making selections on Day 2.

[50PoundHead]

Kiley:

I've heard that his pick is likely below slot, so I get the thinking here as well: Lots of college arms look similar, so take the cheapest one that's in your mix on talent, and spend the savings later. Atlanta did this last year, going under at all of their high picks and spending what was left over on the prep prospects who got to them. I generally don't love this trade down, kick-the-can-down-the-road approach to things, but the execution of their high picks last year was strong and I had Shuster as a late-first-day talent, so it's fine.

Similar to Boston, Atlanta doesn't have a full complement of picks, so cutting with its top pick gives it some flexibility later. The thing to watch here is the Braves don't have dozens of picks to use to spread the money around like last year, so they have a handful of picks to find falling talents to match their draft pool, and thus have to be more aggressive making selections on Day 2.

I'm fine with Shuster and I'm also sure there's more than meets the eye. I just wonder what, if any, projectable high school talent will be there in the third through fifth rounds and what their signing requirements are. There will likely be some savings with Shuster, but it probably won't be enough to appreciably load up on a guy later.

[CJ9]

I'm fine with Shuster and I'm also sure there's more than meets the eye. I just wonder what, if any, projectable high school talent will be there in the third through fifth rounds and what their signing requirements are. There will likely be some savings with Shuster, but it probably won't be enough to appreciably load up on a guy later.

My expectation is it won't be one guy at 96 who would've been a top 50 pick. I think all three picks today will be HS guys who would've gone a little earlier in a normal draft instead of one overpay. The challenge though - the Red Sox are trying to do the exact same thing w/o a 2nd rounder and they pick ahead of us in each round.

[clvclv]

Wilcox priced himself out of everyone’s range again.

Quite possibly - just listing the guys still on the board that I liked better.

[OcalaBrave]

Following up on my previous. I'd be interested in seeing if our pitching not named Soroka could net any of the below. I would absolutely deal Fried or Folty for Jasson Dominguez... though I understand the Yankees are unlikely to go for it.

Baltimore – Gunnar Henderson
Yankees – Jasson Dominguez, Oswald Peraza, Anthony Volpe
Toronto – Jordan Goshans, Orelvis Martinez
KC – Erick Pena
Minny – Keoni Cavaco, Wander Javier
Seattle - Noelvi Marte
Texas – Maximo Acosta
Pittsburgh – Liover Peguero, Travis Swaggerty, Sammy Siani
San Fran – Heliot Ramos, Hunter Bishop, Alexander Canario, Luis Toribio

[50PoundHead]

My expectation is it won't be one guy at 96 who would've been a top 50 pick. I think all three picks today will be HS guys who would've gone a little earlier in a normal draft instead of one overpay. The challenge though - the Red Sox are trying to do the exact same thing w/o a 2nd rounder and they pick ahead of us in each round.

Regardless of what the Red Sox do, it just seems like a dicey strategy given the relatively low slot values associated with our remaining picks. I'm sure they've got book on a number of guys that they foresee being available around their draft slots and they know the meeting points on the bonus required to get them to sign. But it would seem to me it's the other way around when it comes to the expectations from the players' angle. If I'm a guy who in a regular year would have gone in the second round, why would I sign for third round money (plus a dash of savings from the first round)? I'm thinking a lot of those guys will be heading to junior college and go into the draft again next year. A lot will depend on what Shuster has agreed to sign for provided that deal is done.

[Enscheff]

Following up on my previous. I'd be interested in seeing if our pitching not named Soroka could net any of the below. I would absolutely deal Fried or Folty for Jasson Dominguez... though I understand the Yankees are unlikely to go for it.

Baltimore – Gunnar Henderson
Yankees – Jasson Dominguez, Oswald Peraza, Anthony Volpe
Toronto – Jordan Goshans, Orelvis Martinez
KC – Erick Pena
Minny – Keoni Cavaco, Wander Javier
Seattle - Noelvi Marte
Texas – Maximo Acosta
Pittsburgh – Liover Peguero, Travis Swaggerty, Sammy Siani
San Fran – Heliot Ramos, Hunter Bishop, Alexander Canario, Luis Toribio

Well...the Braves are WS contenders and are extremely unlikely to trade a pitcher with many years of control left like Fried, but Folty is coming into the period in his years of control where he makes sense to flip for future assets. If the Braves were out of contention at the deadline this year, I would have expected them to shop Folty. The Rays wrote the playbook on flipping pitchers at the end of their control years, and they have done very well executing it.