The 2020 Draft Thread

[clvclv]

A site run by someone named Madison McRae has us taking South Carolina RHP Carmen Mlodzinski. Top-level performer in the Cape Cod League in 2019, but scuffled a bit before then. Got off to a nice start in 2020 before the season was cancelled.

Purely stuff guy (according to most reports) - but the stuff is supposed to rival Meyer's.

[Southcack77]

Mlodzinski has never really performed in college. It's basically one nice summer on the Cape and raw stuff.

[CJ9]

New Fangraphs mock:

25. Atlanta Braves- Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke
Jarvis’ stuff is tailored to modern specifications. I have them attached to Cole Henry with their next pick.


Fangraphs has Henry 66 overall. Seems like it would be a good value with our third rounder. FG on him: “Henry will be a draft-eligible sophomore in 2020 and made huge improvements as a freshman at LSU. He turned down some money out of high school as an out-of-control projected reliever with head violence to where he had trouble keeping his hat on pitch-to-pitch. He's now got a real chance to turn into a mid-rotation starter, but was shut down with arm discomfort late last spring and his velocity still varies. At his best, he's regularly into the mid-90's with a plus curveball and solid average changeup along with starter traits.”

[CJ9]

Pipeline has Henry at 45 overall. Part of me wonders if Fangraphs forgot we don’t have a second round pick.


Pipeline: “Henry opened eyes when he touched 97 mph and flashed a plus curveball in the first outing of his Alabama high school senior season in 2018, but he fell to the Tigers in the 38th round because he asked for first-round money to give up a scholarship from Louisiana State. He missed fall practice with a stress reaction in his upper arm, then emerged as LSU's best starter as a freshman before missing a month with a sore elbow. He's one of the best Draft-eligible sophomores in the 2020 Draft -- provided he can stay healthy.

Henry has the potential for three solid to plus pitches. His fastball usually runs from 90-94 mph and tops out at 96 with riding or sinking action, and he could add some more velocity once he gets stronger. His mid-70s downer curveball gives him a second plus pitch when it's on, while his mid-80s changeup has some depth and continues to get better.

When he was in high school, Henry's delivery featured a lot of effort and some head whack. He has improved his mechanics in college and had no trouble providing strikes as a freshman. He has the look of a durable mid-rotation starter but must prove he can stay on the mound.”

[OcalaBrave]

He looks durable, but can't stay on the mound?
What does durable look like while sitting in the dugout?

[clvclv]

Pipeline has Henry at 45 overall. Part of me wonders if Fangraphs forgot we don’t have a second round pick.

Pipeline: “Henry opened eyes when he touched 97 mph and flashed a plus curveball in the first outing of his Alabama high school senior season in 2018, but he fell to the Tigers in the 38th round because he asked for first-round money to give up a scholarship from Louisiana State. He missed fall practice with a stress reaction in his upper arm, then emerged as LSU's best starter as a freshman before missing a month with a sore elbow. He's one of the best Draft-eligible sophomores in the 2020 Draft -- provided he can stay healthy.

Henry has the potential for three solid to plus pitches. His fastball usually runs from 90-94 mph and tops out at 96 with riding or sinking action, and he could add some more velocity once he gets stronger. His mid-70s downer curveball gives him a second plus pitch when it's on, while his mid-80s changeup has some depth and continues to get better.

When he was in high school, Henry's delivery featured a lot of effort and some head whack. He has improved his mechanics in college and had no trouble providing strikes as a freshman. He has the look of a durable mid-rotation starter but must prove he can stay on the mound.”

BA has him at #44...

"One of the talented draft-eligible sophomore pitchers in the 2020 class, Henry ranked No. 225 on the BA 500 in 2018, when he showed a fastball up to 97 mph as a high school senior with a big frame to match. Henry has started to fill out that frame in two years with Louisiana State and is now listed at 6-foot-4, 211 pounds. With the increased strength he’s also improved his stuff, most notably a breaking ball that now has plus potential. He still can run his fastball up into the 97 mph range, but sits in the 92-95 mph range more typically, with a two-seam fastball in his arsenal as well. His curveball is a power offering with impressive depth, and he’s also shown feel for a changeup that scouts believe can be plus as well. With plus stuff across the board, Henry has all the pieces to be a frontline arm, but scouts have wanted to see more consistency. When everything’s on at the same time he can be electric, but that happens infrequently because he struggles at times to put hitters away or land his off-speed stuff for strikes. Henry established himself as LSU’s No. 1 weekend starter as a freshman, when he posted a 3.39 ERA over 58.1 innings with 72 strikeouts and 18 walks. He was once again the Friday arm in 2020 through four starts before the season was canceled. In that time, Henry posted a 1.89 ERA over 19 innings with 23 strikeouts and six walks. With sophomore eligibility, Henry could be a tough sign but is solidly a Day One talent."


Makes one wonder if - assuming Longenhagen just stumbled in his explanation - that Henry could be a candidate at #25 in the event there's no better option for an under-slot deal if Jarvis is gone and the plan is to go after HS kids with the later picks.

If that's the case, I'd just as soon roll the dice with Jordan Walker's upside at #25 (assuming they think he'll sign). Given how safe most teams are likely going to play it in this draft, there ought to be quite a few HS kids available to be taken with those later picks. As discussed earlier, most everyone hates making someone a first round pick when there are several kids with substantially higher ceilings still floating around. If Walker doesn't bust, he's likely to turn into a huge steal - having both Ball and Walker on the way could conceivably make the Freeman decision much easier after next season (and with the DH on the way as well).

[50PoundHead]

A place called Draft Site has done a 5-round mock and here are their choices for the Braves:

Round 1 (25) -- Aaron Sabato, 1B, University of North Carolina
Round 3 (97) -- Trei Cruz, SS Rice University
Round 4 (126) -- Tanner Witt, SS/3B/RHP, Episcopal High School, Houston, Texas
Round 5 (156) -- Drew Bowser, SS/3B, Harvard-Westlake High School, Los Angeles, California

Prospects Live site has us taking RHP Justin Lange from Llano High School, Llano, Texas

[CJ9]

Anyone know who the updated Baseball america mock has us taking? https://www.baseballamerica.com/rank...lb-mock-draft/

[CJ9]

A place called Draft Site has done a 5-round mock and here are their choices for the Braves:

Round 1 (25) -- Aaron Sabato, 1B, University of North Carolina
Round 3 (97) -- Trei Cruz, SS Rice University
Round 4 (126) -- Tanner Witt, SS/3B/RHP, Episcopal High School, Houston, Texas
Round 5 (156) -- Drew Bowser, SS/3B, Harvard-Westlake High School, Los Angeles, California

Prospects Live site has us taking RHP Justin Lange from Llano High School, Llano, Texas

Witt and Bowser are supposed to be two of the toughest signs from the high school ranks. Would be pretty tough to pull one off with our bonus pool, much less two.

[Horsehide Harry]

Witt and Bowser are supposed to be two of the toughest signs from the high school ranks. Would be pretty tough to pull one off with our bonus pool, much less two.

I agree with you. IMO, if you're going to take a tough sign do it in the first round. If you can't sign him then you get a replacement pick next year in what should be a deeper (lots of returning guys) and better scouted group. It's not like you lose a lot of development time since it's not likely the minor leagues go this year anyway.

[clvclv]

Anyone know who the updated Baseball america mock has us taking? https://www.baseballamerica.com/rank...lb-mock-draft/

Jarvis. Cole Henry to the Indians at #36 and Beeter to the Rays at #37.

[clvclv]

A place called Draft Site has done a 5-round mock and here are their choices for the Braves:

Round 1 (25) -- Aaron Sabato, 1B, University of North Carolina
Round 3 (97) -- Trei Cruz, SS Rice University
Round 4 (126) -- Tanner Witt, SS/3B/RHP, Episcopal High School, Houston, Texas
Round 5 (156) -- Drew Bowser, SS/3B, Harvard-Westlake High School, Los Angeles, California

Prospects Live site has us taking RHP Justin Lange from Llano High School, Llano, Texas

Mentioned Lange as one of those high-upside HS arms I thought we might target at #96 if we were able to get Jarvis or another college arm underslot at #25. A little surprised to see him mentioned that high. Maybe he's the 20% under candidate that high so we could splurge on another of the HS kids I mentioned at #96?

[CJ9]

Jarvis. Cole Henry to the Indians at #36 and Beeter to the Rays at #37.

Wow on Henry. I like Longenhagen, but can’t help but wonder if he got some bad info on us floating Henry to the 90s.

[50PoundHead]

Witt and Bowser are supposed to be two of the toughest signs from the high school ranks. Would be pretty tough to pull one off with our bonus pool, much less two.

I haven't followed it nearly as closely as usual, but that's my impression as well. Unless they totally go low-ball in the first, there's no way you're going to get a high school guy considered a questionable sign late.

I agree with Horsehide in that if you're going to go for a tough-sign guy, do it in the first. As he said, you have the back-up of the replacement pick in 2021. Further, if you are only drafting four guys, you could push almost of the bonus pool to the first round guy and simply take filler in rounds 3 through 5. However, all indications are that Anthopoulos wants to avoid a Carter Stewart redux scenario.

[CJ9]

Prep Baseball Report does really good work scouting the high school level and they have some solid contacts on the draft stuff. Here’s their mock - https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/n...2.0-2796483105

25. Braves: If Wilcox got this far, you could argue the mantra “don’t get beat in your backyard” for Atlanta, but he would probably eat up most, if not all, of their pool. Just a couple hours southwest of SunTrust is RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). There’s also a little talk of RHP Justin Lange (Llano HS, TX) here, which would save them some money but also give them a high-octane arm. PICK: Tanner Burns


I’m not a Burns guy at all.

[clvclv]

Mayo has it as Beeter this morning.

[clvclv]

Wow on Henry. I like Longenhagen, but can’t help but wonder if he got some bad info on us floating Henry to the 90s.

I think he just stumbled with his explanation - I don't think there's a scenario where Henry slips into the 90s, that'd be 50-ish spots.

Really think he meant "next pick" as in "next guy the Braves might pick at #25 they might be able to sign under slot if Jarvis isn't there".

[clvclv]

If around $1.2 million is enough to sign Robby Ashford away from his Oregon commitment, Lange at #25 would really start to line up with Law's theory that we're leaning HS with the picks. Lots of NC, SC, FL, AR kids that fall in the #126 and #156 pick range on FG's board.

[clvclv]

From today's all-day draft chat on BA...

Chris (Nebo, NC): You mentioned various teams may entirely pass on signing NDFAs - shouldn't we expect the Braves to be particularly active with these guys given the holes they'll need to fill at the lower levels because of the international penalties?

J.J. Cooper: They would be a team who has probably more reasons to go NDFA crazy than almost anyone. They have a LOT of roster spots in the lower levels of the system. The international penalties have thinned out the system in many ways and even their draftees have been fast movers in many cases. They can legitimately sell teams on having spots/opportunities for their class A teams for 2021.

(Think he meant sell players, not teams.)

[CJ9]

Another mock talking about smoke of us taking Justin Lange underslot: https://www.prospectslive.com/mlb-dr...-mock-draft-40