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Thread: The 2020 Draft Thread

  1. #401
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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    1st-rder Jared Shuster signs with @Braves for $2,197,500 (slot 25 = $2,740,300). Wake Forest LHP, improved control last summer in Cape Cod League & stuff took jump this spring, fastball rose to 92-97 mph, CH stayed plus, low-80s slurve. @MLBDraft

    3rd-rder Jesse Franklin signs with @Braves for $497,500 (slot 97 = $599,100). Michigan OF missed spring after breaking collarbone in skiing accident, solid to plus raw power, similar speed, chance to stay in CF. @MLBDraft
    If those numbers are correct, that leaves $1,187,390 for Elder (counting the 5% overage cushion).
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    Buehler was drafted 24th by the Dodgers back in 2015. Here’s what genius dodger writer had to say.

    “ Buehler is a slight pitcher from the right side. He stands 6’2 (allegedly) and a whopping 170 pounds. His frame suggests that he might not be cut out for the rotation long-term.... His delivery is a little more high-effort than is preferred for a pitcher. That, coupled with his frame give some evaluators pause.... This is a solid pick. It isn’t the pick I would have made, but it isn’t a bad pick — this isn’t Chris Reed we’re talking about. He has the floor of a late-inning reliever with two potentially plus-pitches (think Chris Withrow). At absolute best, he’s a No. 2 starter. Realistically, he’s a No. 3 or 4 starter if he reaches his potential. He should sign for around slot value.”

    That guy was wrong.

    My hope was that the Braves saw something nobody else had time to see. Maybe that’s what happened. Maybe AA brought over some special sauce from LA in evaluating late picks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Buehler was drafted 24th by the Dodgers back in 2015. Here’s what genius dodger writer had to say.

    “ Buehler is a slight pitcher from the right side. He stands 6’2 (allegedly) and a whopping 170 pounds. His frame suggests that he might not be cut out for the rotation long-term.... His delivery is a little more high-effort than is preferred for a pitcher. That, coupled with his frame give some evaluators pause.... This is a solid pick. It isn’t the pick I would have made, but it isn’t a bad pick — this isn’t Chris Reed we’re talking about. He has the floor of a late-inning reliever with two potentially plus-pitches (think Chris Withrow). At absolute best, he’s a No. 2 starter. Realistically, he’s a No. 3 or 4 starter if he reaches his potential. He should sign for around slot value.”

    That guy was wrong.

    My hope was that the Braves saw something nobody else had time to see. Maybe that’s what happened. Maybe AA brought over some special sauce from LA in evaluating late picks.
    He needs to develop a 3rd pitch but if the velocity uptick is coming, we'll see. I generally like HS arms > college arms. But given how cheap our draft pool was, bottom 5, it was expected we would do something out of the box.

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    I'm curious if Elder signs for that. He's not a high-ceiling guy, but he's one of those guys a team could draft relatively early in 2021 and net considerable bonus pool savings and still pay him more than what he's slated to get here. If the Braves were determined on Elder, the Strider signing at slot is all the more surprising, but I honestly don't know if another $100,000 gets it done if Elder is truly a tough sign.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    I'm curious if Elder signs for that. He's not a high-ceiling guy, but he's one of those guys a team could draft relatively early in 2021 and net considerable bonus pool savings and still pay him more than what he's slated to get here. If the Braves were determined on Elder, the Strider signing at slot is all the more surprising, but I honestly don't know if another $100,000 gets it done if Elder is truly a tough sign.
    I think it's another $750K + the 5% added to slot

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    I'm curious if Elder signs for that. He's not a high-ceiling guy, but he's one of those guys a team could draft relatively early in 2021 and net considerable bonus pool savings and still pay him more than what he's slated to get here. If the Braves were determined on Elder, the Strider signing at slot is all the more surprising, but I honestly don't know if another $100,000 gets it done if Elder is truly a tough sign.
    I can’t imagine the Braves drafting him w/o knowing the number it’d take to sign him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    I'm curious if Elder signs for that. He's not a high-ceiling guy, but he's one of those guys a team could draft relatively early in 2021 and net considerable bonus pool savings and still pay him more than what he's slated to get here. If the Braves were determined on Elder, the Strider signing at slot is all the more surprising, but I honestly don't know if another $100,000 gets it done if Elder is truly a tough sign.
    If they don’t sign him and leave $1 million+ unspent and have no one else to spend it on, then they have failed miserably.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    I'm curious if Elder signs for that. He's not a high-ceiling guy, but he's one of those guys a team could draft relatively early in 2021 and net considerable bonus pool savings and still pay him more than what he's slated to get here. If the Braves were determined on Elder, the Strider signing at slot is all the more surprising, but I honestly don't know if another $100,000 gets it done if Elder is truly a tough sign.
    Elder was expected 3rd round.top of the 3rd is $857K.
    this would essentially treat Elder as a 2nd round pick. i think he'll sign.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    I think it's another $750K + the 5% added to slot
    I was talking more about if they had gone under slot with Strider and used some of that on Elder. I just spitballed an extra $100,000 to add to the approximately $1.2 clvclv has estimated as available to sign him. I should have been more clear.

    I agree if they don't sign Elder, it's a real misstep.
    Last edited by 50PoundHead; 06-19-2020 at 09:32 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    I was talking more about if they had gone under slot with Strider and used some of that on Elder. I just spitballed an extra $100,000 to add to the approximately $1.2 clvclv has estimated as available to sign him. I should have been more clear.

    I agree if they don't sign Elder, it's a real misstep.
    IIRC, the number needed to sign him that was floated after he was picked was something in the $600,000-$700,000 range. Don't recall whether that was during the draft coverage or in one of the multitude of stories and blurbs we've run across since, but that number sticks out as something I recall floated from somewhere for sure.

    The $1,187,390 is slightly more than slot for the Twins' pick at #59 at the end of the 2nd round.

    If that's not enough to get it done, Elder's not being particularly realistic IMO. If almost ANYBODY thought more of him than that, someone else would've taken him - there's little doubt other teams had more flexibility to fit him within their pools.
    Last edited by clvclv; 06-19-2020 at 10:29 AM.
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    5th-rder Bryce Elder signs with @Braves for $850k (slot 156 value = $336,600). Texas RHP, one of best sliders in @MLBDraft, also has low-90s sinker, ability to manipulate breaking ball into a curve and effective changeup. High-floor guy. @MLBDraft

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    So 300k or so gone forever with no one to give it to. Strange. Wonder if we were trying to save money as an organization this draft? That’s scary.

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    Finally got around to watching video on Shuster and his short arm delivery from the left side reminds me of a pitcher, but I can’t remember who. I think he was also left handed, and almost seemed to have his wrist half cocked as he threw. This is going to drive me crazy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    So 300k or so gone forever with no one to give it to. Strange. Wonder if we were trying to save money as an organization this draft? That’s scary.
    We had a limited draft pool due to no original 2nd or 3rd round picks. If we had a bigger pool, i wonder if our draft strategy would have been different.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    So 300k or so gone forever with no one to give it to. Strange. Wonder if we were trying to save money as an organization this draft? That’s scary.
    Not really. $206,390 of that is where I figured in the 5% overage cushion. Take that away and you're at roughly $100K - we saved more or less the amount Franklin left on the table.
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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    So 300k or so gone forever with no one to give it to. Strange. Wonder if we were trying to save money as an organization this draft? That’s scary.
    Leaving money on the table seems odd.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Finally got around to watching video on Shuster and his short arm delivery from the left side reminds me of a pitcher, but I can’t remember who. I think he was also left handed, and almost seemed to have his wrist half cocked as he threw. This is going to drive me crazy.
    The wrist reminds me of Rick Sutcliffe of the Cubs but he was a Righty.

    Maybe Kent Merker?

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    Kinda reminds me of Sid Fernandez who pitched for the Mets.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Finally got around to watching video on Shuster and his short arm delivery from the left side reminds me of a pitcher, but I can’t remember who. I think he was also left handed, and almost seemed to have his wrist half cocked as he threw. This is going to drive me crazy.
    Reminds me of a lefty Russ Ortiz.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    Reminds me of a lefty Russ Ortiz.
    That’s who I initially thought of, but when I looked up video they didn’t look too similar.

    Either in misremembering Ortiz, or it’s someone else. I swear it was a short arm lefty. Wagner? Rocker? I have to look up more video.

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