surprised at how good Jeff Locke is this year?

[Knucksie]

8-1, 2.12 ERA, 102 IP, 69 SO, 44 BB, 1.147 WHIP and for Zito a 2.5 WAR + NL ASG selection.

Once upon a time:
http://braves.scout.com/3/jefflockepp07.html

Now, hopefully, this thread won't turn into a rant about poor trades. CF was a glaring need, at that time, and there was every reason to believe that McLouth added defense, speed and the leadoff hitter that was needed in the lineup. (He's giving Baltimore some of what we thought he'd do in Atlanta.) Nevertheless, my recollection is that he wasn't that highly ranked.

According to this report, BA had him as 7th ranked Braves prospect at the time of the trade.

http://players.piratesprospects.com/...eff-locke.html

Nothing in his minor league career was particularly exceptional. 2007 was his only season with an ERA under 3.00. The rest were all above 4.00.

Before the trade, Locke struggled with his mechanics, leading to control problems for the first time in his career. After the trade, the struggles continued, as he had an ERA of 5.31 in June and July. He started turning things around in his last July start and had an ERA of 2.58 from that point on. The strong stretch began after one meltdown in which he failed to get out of first inning. His walk rate dropped dramatically with Lynchburg as the Pirates got him to focus more on throwing strikes. His K rate also dropped significantly, but was increasing again late in the year.

[50PoundHead]

Good for Locke. I don't think his stuff is overpowering and it often takes guys in that mold a little longer for it all to come together.

One stat I look at with regularity for pitchers who have taken a step forward is GB/FB and GO/AO and Locke has improved in both these categories (fairly dramatically in the latter) this season.

As for the trade, McLouth's struggles aside, you make that trade 100 times out of 100 when it was offered. I never liked McLouth as a player (still don't), but the need was there and the price wasn't particularly high. If McLouth doesn't totally collapse, it's not a bad deal.

[Knucksie]

Locke's walk rate is kind of high, but it still surprises me what great strides he's made this year. Something must be going on with the Pirates coaches to have helped get him to the next level.

[50PoundHead]

They may be working with him to "pitch to contact" more. Not a bad initial approach to move a guy up a bit.

[Knucksie]

Whatever they're doing with him, Locke's an important part of the Pirates' success this year.

[nsacpi]

I remember at the time of the trade that I felt both Charlie Morton and Locke had a chance to be decent major league starters.

But we had guys like Hanson and Cole Rohrbough (remember him?) and even Medlen who were ranked higher. This made it easier to give up Morton and Locke. But as we all know there is a large element of uncertainty when it comes to projecting players, especially pitchers.

It should make us humble when rating today's pitching prospects. Which of Wood, Hale, Graham, Hursh, Martin, Schlosser, Northcraft, Sims, Cabrera are going to end up being better. We all have our rankings. But the element of uncertainty is pretty big.

[zitothebrave]

I loved Locke as a prospect. Felt that many undervalued him, didn't walk out a ton, struck out a good number of batters, kept it in the park and had a pretty nice groundball numbers. He's pitchign a bit over his head, but that's fine. If he's a mid3 to low 4 ERA pitcher that's still a nice career.

[gilesfan]

I don't think there was a bigger Locke fan than me. You can go back to the old board and check.

Having said that, he's pitching way over his head. There will be some major regression.

[50PoundHead]

I don't think there was a bigger Locke fan than me. You can go back to the old board and check.

Having said that, he's pitching way over his head. There will be some major regression.

Yes, I recall you were a big Locke guy. I liked him as well. He came into the draft as a New Hampshire kid who didn't have a ton of experience against big-time talent and it can take awhile for those guys to fully develop. It will be interesting to see how he continues. As Knucksie says, the walk rate is on the high side, which is being offset by an insanely low BAA and HR % at this point.

[gilesfan]

I mean, I don't expect him to be out of the majors or anything, but he's a solid middle of the rotation guy. He used to walk no one, but that skill didn't translate to the majors where he's walking way too many guys. He also has an unsustainable lob%. The k's and ground balls are nice sets of numbers for him, but he's running like God right now.