What Would A "Fair" Freeman Extension Look Like?

[clvclv]

Someone I've thought for a while that was rather interesting is Brent Rooker. The Twins have an absolute glut of OFs (particularly corner guys). They've been playing him in the OF to try to add versatility, but I don't think they (or anyone else) buys him as much other than a 1B/DH down the road. Sano's going nowhere, and they've got Donaldson, Sano, and Kirilloff to split their 1B/DH ABs between for the foreseeable future, so they really have nowhere for him to play and his bat was probably ready last year. The problem is we wouldn't have anywhere to play him without the DH either. He'd represent a pretty good candidate as a Freeman "replacement" (particularly if Ball happens not to work out), but I have no clue what we would do with him if there are games this year and no NL DH next season.

He seems like the type of guy we could get for one of our secondary arms (Davidson/De La Cruz/Weigel/Pfeifer) that are likely going to be part of the Gwinnett logjam, but I'm not sure he'd be a fit yet.

[Enscheff]

The idea that we will just be able to replace a 2-3 win 1B for free through FA is... optimistic.

Freeman should retire a Brave. Lifers are good.

Who said he could be replaced for free? Please provide the quote that straw man was built upon.

It is a statement of fact that 2-3 win bats are available every single year for reasonable prices. Therefore, it makes no sense to commit to such a player long term right now.

Very simple resource management employed by all competent modern FOs.

[Enscheff]

Eh, I don't know about that. Especially for a player who is "likely" to produce 2-3 WAR as a 1b. Jose Abreu, a 33 year old 1b coming off a 2 WAR season, signed his QO for 17 million and then renegotiated for 3/50. Unless the market returns to what it was 2-3 years ago, I doubt we'll be able to find a FA 1b who is likely to produce 2-3 WAR and will sign for significantly less than 3/60.

Now sure, we could take a chance on someone for super cheap, like Eric Thames, and hope he works out. But that route carries risk as well, just not much of a financial one. The risk you take is that sort of player is more likely to regress into a replacement level player than put up 2-3 WAR, and you have to make an in-season trade to fix a gaping hole in your lineup.

The point is Abreu was available for 3/50 or 1/17. Those types are always available.

Worst case scenario is Freeman's elbow problems continue to erode his productivity as he ages into his 30s. Paying a one-armed Freeman $20M+ after an ill-advised extension just so he can be a "lifer" would be hard to overcome from a payroll perspective for this organization.

Therefore it is pointless to take on the risk of extending such a contract to Freeman now. However, if a healthy and productive Freeman becomes a FA and then re-signs with the Braves for 3/60 that's not the same thing as guaranteeing him more cash through an extension...and we are discussing different scenarios.+

[Enscheff]

If you could consistently just glue two ****ty players with platoon splits together to make one 3 WAR player, people would do that and those players would actually cost money.

It is possible, but I wouldn't describe that outcome as routine.

The Rays and As have shown exactly how to do it and compete with minimal payrolls for years...

[Metaphysicist]

Who said he could be replaced for free? Please provide the quote that straw man was built upon.

Those types of hitters (or a close approximation) are available every single off-season for almost nothing.

Sorry if I misinterpreted.

[clvclv]

The Rays and As have shown exactly how to do it and compete with minimal payrolls for years...

Braves' average home attendance from 2009-2019 - 32,776 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/...tlanta-braves/)

Rays' average home attendance from 2009-2019 - 14,734 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ampa-bay-rays/)


The Rays operate with a minimal payroll out of necessity and no one goes to the games. Signing players that bring fans to the park is a "luxury" the Braves can afford in some situations, sorry. The difference in the number of fans that showed up more than paid for Freeman's current deal without changing the rest of the Braves' operating budget.

God forbid the Braves had a TV deal that measured up to the rest of the contenders, penny-pinchers would go absolutely berserk about the money they "wasted".

[Skeeter31]

Braves' average home attendance from 2009-2019 - 32,776 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/...tlanta-braves/)

Rays' average home attendance from 2009-2019 - 14,734 (https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ampa-bay-rays/)


The Rays operate with a minimal payroll out of necessity and no one goes to the games. Signing players that bring fans to the park is a "luxury" the Braves can afford in some situations, sorry. The difference in the number of fans that showed up more than paid for Freeman's current deal without changing the rest of the Braves' operating budget.

God forbid the Braves had a TV deal that measured up to the rest of the contenders, penny-pinchers would go absolutely berserk about the money they "wasted".

That’s an illogical argument. The Rays don’t get fans because people in Tampa don’t have the same care about baseball that people in other markets have. It has nothing to do with their payroll. Even the seasons when the Rays were WS contenders they weren’t bringing fans in. It’s a massive combination of lackluster marketing, a horrible stadium, a horrible stadium location, etc.

[The Chosen One]

That’s an illogical argument. The Rays don’t get fans because people in Tampa don’t have the same care about baseball that people in other markets have. It has nothing to do with their payroll. Even the seasons when the Rays were WS contenders they weren’t bringing fans in. It’s a massive combination of lackluster marketing, a horrible stadium, a horrible stadium location, etc.

Rays would get way more people to their games, if it wasn't across that long ass bridge in St. Petersburg, and was actually in Tampa.

I've made that commute before, and it's a gorgeous bridge to drive over to get to St. Pete. But I completely understand why people don't wanna go to the games, setting aside how awful the Trop is.

[clvclv]

That’s an illogical argument. The Rays don’t get fans because people in Tampa don’t have the same care about baseball that people in other markets have. It has nothing to do with their payroll. Even the seasons when the Rays were WS contenders they weren’t bringing fans in. It’s a massive combination of lackluster marketing, a horrible stadium, a horrible stadium location, etc.

Tampa's management team has both been put in a *hitty situation AND done an amazing job over the years - no one will argue that. Braves' management could make a similar argument that if The Ted hadn't been located in such a rough section of town and had been designed as a baseball-only facility they'd have drawn more fans over the years - leading to the ability to make plays for more free-agents (or re-sign players who "got away). Not getting shafted by MLB and handcuffed by the TV deal similarly hurt the Braves.

Excuses abound - in ALL markets - and plenty of them are legitimate. None of them do anything to change the fact that the Braves can afford the luxury of signing players like Freeman and the Rays can't.

[Enscheff]

That’s an illogical argument. The Rays don’t get fans because people in Tampa don’t have the same care about baseball that people in other markets have. It has nothing to do with their payroll. Even the seasons when the Rays were WS contenders they weren’t bringing fans in. It’s a massive combination of lackluster marketing, a horrible stadium, a horrible stadium location, etc.

Shocking...I never would have imagined the usual suspect of logic failures would somehow not be able to follow along.

Freeman is a prime candidate to accept a QO, and then perhaps a new deal can be reached afterwards.

There is no reason to take on the risk of extending Freeman now, regardless of how rich the Braves are compared to the Rays.

[Enscheff]

Sorry if I misinterpreted.

It's OK, you were the only one unable to figure out what "almost nothing" meant in the context of multi million dollar MLB contracts for average or better players.

Nice try at a "gotcha" though.

[Carp]

The point is Abreu was available for 3/50 or 1/17. Those types are always available.

Worst case scenario is Freeman's elbow problems continue to erode his productivity as he ages into his 30s. Paying a one-armed Freeman $20M+ after an ill-advised extension just so he can be a "lifer" would be hard to overcome from a payroll perspective for this organization.

Therefore it is pointless to take on the risk of extending such a contract to Freeman now. However, if a healthy and productive Freeman becomes a FA and then re-signs with the Braves for 3/60 that's not the same thing as guaranteeing him more cash through an extension...and we are discussing different scenarios.+

That's a fair point. Though, a FA Freeman likely doesn't sign for 3/60. Is there much doubt, if he maintains his current levels, that he won't eclipse JD's deal?

I will say, if he can had for 3/60 right now, there's probably not much difference in waiting 8 more months and then doing it then, when he's going into his last season, and reducing the risk.

[Skeeter31]

Rays would get way more people to their games, if it wasn't across that long ass bridge in St. Petersburg, and was actually in Tampa.

I've made that commute before, and it's a gorgeous bridge to drive over to get to St. Pete. But I completely understand why people don't wanna go to the games, setting aside how awful the Trop is.

Exactly. Tampa is able to sell out Lightning games for over 4 seasons in a row because of location in downtown Tampa and the great infrastructure of the arena. But having to drive to St Pete to go to a baseball game (especially with the amount of traffic trying to get to the games) turns most residents off.

[Enscheff]

That's a fair point. Though, a FA Freeman likely doesn't sign for 3/60. Is there much doubt, if he maintains his current levels, that he won't eclipse JD's deal?

I will say, if he can had for 3/60 right now, there's probably not much difference in waiting 8 more months and then doing it then, when he's going into his last season, and reducing the risk.

Definitely a lot of speculation. I guess the point is that 1B tend to decline rapidly when they enter their 30s, and it makes sense to wait to make the decision on him.

Of course, if he decides he wants to sign an extension tomorrow that adds 1 guaranteed season at $25M for 2022 with another $25M team option for 2023, it's a no-brainer to extend him. We would all be super happy talking about how great AA is and how much Freeman loves being a Brave.

I'm guessing Freeman is eyeing Goldy's 5/130 extension as fair (which is perfectly logical and accurate from his side), and expects something similar from the Braves. Problem is, Goldy is already showing why such deals are foolish. No matter how "athletic" the 1B seems to be, fact of the matter is they are 1B for a reason and tend to decline rapidly.

[Metaphysicist]

It's OK, you were the only one unable to figure out what "almost nothing" meant in the context of multi million dollar MLB contracts for average or better players.

Nice try at a "gotcha" though.

Again, my apologies for responding with a quote when you asked for a quote.

In the future I will understand that you consider "$17-20M per year" to be "almost nothing." I'm glad we cleared this up and now understand each other.

[Enscheff]

Again, my apologies for responding with a quote when you asked for a quote.

In the future I will understand that you consider "$17-20M per year" to be "almost nothing." I'm glad we cleared this up and now understand each other.

And again, you were literally the only person unable to understand the point of my comment based on context of the discussion. Actually, I’m certain you completely understood the point, but you couldn’t resist your natural impulse to be a contrarian little twat.

No need to apologize though. Everyone can clearly see your comments for the pathetic attempts at a gotcha.

[Metaphysicist]

your natural impulse to be a contrarian little twat...

pathetic attempts at a gotcha...

Such vitriol. It makes me worry we didn't really reach an understanding.

[sturg33]

Such vitriol. It makes me worry we didn't really reach an understanding.

Haha

[clvclv]

Such vitriol. It makes me worry we didn't really reach an understanding.

Have to give His Highness a break - it's a credit to him that he hasn't hung himself without people to whine about here.

[Sheffield10]

Sorry if I misinterpreted.

Feel free to exit the thread. Mic drop.

Also: Of course the parents’ basement World of Warcraft players think it’s that easy to get production and that you can teach anyone to play first. They saw a movie yesterday on their step dad’s Hulu account and are wondering “Well Brad Pitt did it for that green team! It’s easy!” Lmao, weirdo.