SP options

[clvclv]

If there are really big questions about Anderson, he needs to be traded now while his value is the highest it can possibly be. Would a Anderson, Waters + package get us In the Degrom conversation?

Why is there a such thing as a "deGrom conversation"? It comes up the same time as the "Trout conversation" does.

Hypothetically talking about what kind of value players have is interesting and fun, but there is no "conversation" - it's just fun message board fodder. They'd probably trade him straight-up for Acuna - who's in?

[striker42]

I said when he was drafted that Anderson projects as a middle of the rotation starter. I still think that. There is a good bit of bullpen risk there because of his control issues though. He had loftier expectations put on him because of where he was taken in the draft. But Anderson signed for over $2 million under-slot. That's why he was picked as high as he was. He was never a TOR prospect.

[TheBravos]

Why is there a such thing as a "deGrom conversation"? It comes up the same time as the "Trout conversation" does.

Hypothetically talking about what kind of value players have is interesting and fun, but there is no "conversation" - it's just fun message board fodder. They'd probably trade him straight-up for Acuna - who's in?

Noah is out for the year, Stroman opted out. The Mets are horrible. Of course he will he brought up in conversation at the trade deadline. That’s not rocket science. Will the Mets trade him?...unlikely. Will they listen to offers?...100%. His age and contract make him at the peak of his trade value right now. Btw way DeGrom is 32 and signed for three more years and Trout is 29 and signed thru like 2030. That is a very poor comparison as is Acuna.

[striker42]

In 2016, deGrom's fastball's average velocity was 94.1 MPH. He turned 28 that year. It has increased every year since and he's currently averaging 99 MPH on the fastball this year. I have never seen another pitcher add velocity like that from age 28 to 32. You're talking a 5 MPH increase.

How is he doing it and how long can it last?

[Tapate50]

In 2016, deGrom's fastball's average velocity was 94.1 MPH. He turned 28 that year. It has increased every year since and he's currently averaging 99 MPH on the fastball this year. I have never seen another pitcher add velocity like that from age 28 to 32. You're talking a 5 MPH increase.

How is he doing it and how long can it last?

hit 101 a few times vs us...

[striker42]

hit 101 a few times vs us...

It's really crazy, here are the velocity changes from 2016 to 2020 for other guys essentially the same age:

Kershaw- 93.7 to 91.7 (-2 MPH)
Strasburg- 95.9 to 94.3 (-1.6 MPH) (based on 2016 to last year as he hasn't pitched this season)
Maeda- 90.9 to 92.5 (+2.5 MPH) (only increased 0.4 MPH since 2017 though)
Kuechel- 89.2 to 89.0 (-.2 MPH)
Bassitt- 94.1 to 93.9 (-.2 MPH)
Richards- 96.3 to 95.1 (-1.2 MPH)
Duffy- 95.5 to 92.1 (-3.4 MPH)

You could add Minor and Cobb to this group but Minor was a reliever for part of this stretch and Cobb only had 22 IP in 2016 so I didn't include them.

So of this group of similarly aged starters, all but 1 experienced a decline in velocity. Some of the declines were so small as to be insignificant but only one saw any improvement in velocity. The only other person with any significant improvement in velocity was Maeda.

Maeda was a Japanese import whose rookie season was 2016. In 2016, his fastball averaged 90.9 MPH. In 2017 his fastball averaged 92.1 MPH. It's held very steady ever since between 92.1 and 92.5. I think the transition to MLB probably caused the jump in his fastball. Either he started throwing it harder to have better success or more emphasis on strength training helped. But he has seen no real change since that initial jump.

So deGrom is an outlier. I really wonder what the deal is. We see guys go to different teams or spend an offseason at driveline who get a one time boost to their velocity but a steady climb of 5 MPH from age 28 to age 32 is bizarre.

[thewupk]

In 2016, deGrom's fastball's average velocity was 94.1 MPH. He turned 28 that year. It has increased every year since and he's currently averaging 99 MPH on the fastball this year. I have never seen another pitcher add velocity like that from age 28 to 32. You're talking a 5 MPH increase.

How is he doing it and how long can it last?

Probably not long but some players just defy the odds Morton is another guy who when tweaked by the Astros was averaging 96 while he was a low 90's guy prior. So apparently there are ways for certain guys to max out a little more.

[Enscheff]

deGrom is a freak that folks will always try to use as a “yeah but what about” scenario when taking about young pitchers. Guys like Glavine and Verlander and Maddux and Pedro and Randy Johnson are HoF talents that should not be used when projecting 95% of the MLB player base.

The moment someone brings up one of those names when talking about the progression of a rank and file MLB player is the moment you can safely ignore them as an idiot.

[MadduxFanII]

deGrom is a freak that folks will always try to use as a “yeah but what about” scenario when taking about young pitchers. Guys like Glavine and Verlander and Maddux and Pedro and Randy Johnson are HoF talents that should not be used when projecting 95% of the MLB player base.

The moment someone brings up one of those names when talking about the progression of a rank and file MLB player is the moment you can safely ignore them as an idiot.

You mean like how every soft-tossing lefty "prospect" in the mid-90's was described as "Glavine-like?"

[Enscheff]

You mean like how every soft-tossing lefty "prospect" in the mid-90's was described as "Glavine-like?"

Yes.

Or how every pitcher like Newk with control issues is going to work them out because Randy Johnson did. Remember that silliness infecting the board a few years ago when I explained how unlikely Newk was to stick in the rotation?

[Super]

I said when he was drafted that Anderson projects as a middle of the rotation starter. I still think that. There is a good bit of bullpen risk there because of his control issues though. He had loftier expectations put on him because of where he was taken in the draft. But Anderson signed for over $2 million under-slot. That's why he was picked as high as he was. He was never a TOR prospect.

this is quite simplistic.
Anderson had helium leading up to the draft. he was definitely taken where he was because he'd sign for underslot, but that doesn't mean he didn't, or doesn't have TOR potential. declaring what an 18-year old pitcher is or isn't upon being drafted is silly...as is judging basically any player you know so little about right after being drafted.

[striker42]

this is quite simplistic.
Anderson had helium leading up to the draft. he was definitely taken where he was because he'd sign for underslot, but that doesn't mean he didn't, or doesn't have TOR potential. declaring what an 18-year old pitcher is or isn't upon being drafted is silly...as is judging basically any player you know so little about right after being drafted.

I absolutely could have been wrong when I projected him as a middle of the rotation stater. I still could be. But projections are just predictions. They're based on what you think is probable. I agree, it's silly to declare you know what an 18 year old on draft day will turn out to be. No one knows. It's not silly to make projections with the full knowledge that you might be over or under estimating what the player will be.

But I stand by my projection with Anderson. I think middle of the rotation starter with bullpen risk. If the curve spinrate questions end up being baseless and his control develops more than is normal, he could end up higher than middle of the rotation. If the curve questions are accurate and/or the control doesn't come along, he's probably got a future in the pen. It's all open for debate at this point. We'll get a better idea when we see him get meaningful MLB innings.

[Horsehide Harry]

yes, because the team takes advice from chip, frenchy, and byrd....

To a certain extent they are parrots repeating what they hear from the organization

[salmagundy]

Put this in the "deGrom conversation". Wasn't he scratched several time last year for similar reasons?

From MLBTR

The Mets have scratched ace righty Jacob deGrom from his scheduled start this evening, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports on Twitter. Michael Mayer of Metsmerizedonline.com first tweeted about the possibility.

Full details of the situation have not yet been fully reported. But it seems a stiff neck is to blame for the absence, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network

[NYCBrave]

In 2016, deGrom's fastball's average velocity was 94.1 MPH. He turned 28 that year. It has increased every year since and he's currently averaging 99 MPH on the fastball this year. I have never seen another pitcher add velocity like that from age 28 to 32. You're talking a 5 MPH increase.

How is he doing it and how long can it last?

I would actually like to hear an explanation on this too. All we see if players losing a tick on their fastball as they age. How is it even physically possible?

[Russ2dollas]

I absolutely could have been wrong when I projected him as a middle of the rotation stater. I still could be. But projections are just predictions. They're based on what you think is probable. I agree, it's silly to declare you know what an 18 year old on draft day will turn out to be. No one knows. It's not silly to make projections with the full knowledge that you might be over or under estimating what the player will be.

But I stand by my projection with Anderson. I think middle of the rotation starter with bullpen risk. If the curve spinrate questions end up being baseless and his control develops more than is normal, he could end up higher than middle of the rotation. If the curve questions are accurate and/or the control doesn't come along, he's probably got a future in the pen. It's all open for debate at this point. We'll get a better idea when we see him get meaningful MLB innings.

if we are being honest, your assessment is the correct assessment for basically every pitcher taken in the top 3 rounds. At any one time how many TOR guys are there? Obviously you have to define that. Last year 11 pitchers had a 5 WAR or better, 22 a 4 or better per FanGraphs. The likelihood that anyone is going to be a top 25 pitcher in MLB is very low.

Last year you could be a top 50 pitcher with a 2 WAR or better.

Maybe that is how we should frame these things. I'm not a guru in this area at all. Based on what I've read I think most people are projecting Anderson to be a 2.5-3.5 win pitcher. Not year one, but for most of his career. Last year Soroka was a 4 and Fried a 3. That probably sounds really low to people, but I'd kill for a 2 Win pitcher right now.

[striker42]

if we are being honest, your assessment is the correct assessment for basically every pitcher taken in the top 3 rounds. At any one time how many TOR guys are there? Obviously you have to define that. Last year 11 pitchers had a 5 WAR or better, 22 a 4 or better per FanGraphs. The likelihood that anyone is going to be a top 25 pitcher in MLB is very low.

Last year you could be a top 50 pitcher with a 2 WAR or better.

Maybe that is how we should frame these things. I'm not a guru in this area at all. Based on what I've read I think most people are projecting Anderson to be a 2.5-3.5 win pitcher. Not year one, but for most of his career. Last year Soroka was a 4 and Fried a 3. That probably sounds really low to people, but I'd kill for a 2 Win pitcher right now.

Hey, I never said I didn't play the odds.

A comp for Anderson's upside that might be fair is 2019 Aaron Nola. 10.19 K/9, 3.56 BB/9, 4.03 FIP, 3.4 WAR.

I think that actually reflects pretty well what Anderson might be if things work out. And yes, I'd kill for a 3.4 WAR, 200 IP (over a full season) pitcher right now.

[clvclv]

Hate to say it, but it's getting close to time to panic. You probably have to run Wright out there again for his next turn, but if Touki stumbles again you may have no choice other than to bring Anderson up.

You'd obviously prefer to try Davidson (or even De La Cruz) since they're already on the 40-Man, but if they've only been playing 5 inning games in Gwinnett you have to wonder if they've been trying to stretch anyone out other than Folty, Newk, Wright, Touki, Wilson, and Anderson down there.

[TheBravos]

Hate to say it, but it's getting close to time to panic. You probably have to run Wright out there again for his next turn, but if Touki stumbles again you may have no choice other than to bring Anderson up.

You'd obviously prefer to try Davidson (or even De La Cruz) since they're already on the 40-Man, but if they've only been playing 5 inning games in Gwinnett you have to wonder if they've been trying to stretch anyone out other than Folty, Newk, Wright, Touki, Wilson, and Anderson down there.

Anderson is not ready. Davidson and Weigel...maybe. They are all so young, they would probably do just like the guys we have are doing...once thru the order and then implode.

I don’t see a good way out of this unless in the unlikely event...two or three guys figure it out. You just don’t lose 4 out of 5 starting pitchers and win.

What would be the fix? Kill the farm with trades on a 60 game season that might not even be allowed to finish? No. Let the guys develop and hope to find one or two keepers for next year, because next year is looking like when we have a chance to contend.

[clvclv]

Anderson is not ready. Davidson and Weigel...maybe. They are all so young, they would probably do just like the guys we have are doing...once thru the order and then implode.

I don’t see a good way out of this unless in the unlikely event...two or three guys figure it out. You just don’t lose 4 out of 5 starting pitchers and win.

What would be the fix? Kill the farm with trades on a 60 game season that might not even be allowed to finish? No. Let the guys develop and hope to find one or two keepers for next year, because next year is looking like when we have a chance to contend.

That's kinda the point at this juncture. I wonder if the organization has moved on from Weigel as a SP - he hasn't had an outing where he was allowed to go 5 innings since July 14th last year, and he's only gone more than two innings twice during that period. His player page says he made 11 "starts" last year. but those were actually just short stints spaced out every 5 days. Wilson, Davidson, and De La Cruz were used more like traditional SPs, as were Wright and Touki. If they both tank again, you're down to Wilson (who doesn't look like someone suited to face more than 12-15 hitters at the most), Davidson (who they were already talking about sending to the pen at the beginning of this season), and De La Cruz (who doesn't have as much experience at the AAA level as Anderson does).

Next year is exactly what this is about. You need to KNOW that one of these guys will be ready to take a rotation spot behind Fried and (hopefully) Soroka next spring If they're not, AA probably has to go fishing for TWO SPs this winter - leaving the fifth slot for an Opener/piggyback situation. The time for one of them to step forward or get set aside is now - we can write off 2020 as being an odd and unavoidable flop with the virus and 4 SPs going down/opting out, but they're not going to get a pass for that next season...if at least one of these guys doesn't show you he's capable of taking a spot next season the whole focus this winter has to be the rotation.

Yes these guys are all young - and it sucks that they can't be given more development time - but that's just the reality of the situation. This isn't a rebuilding club anymore.