Bryse Wilson's stuff

[Enscheff]

Last night, the eye test on TV revealed:

So looks like a 4 seamer at 93-95, change at 87, hard slider at 89, and a frisbee thing at 80.

Now that we have 2020 data on ~50 pitches, here is what we actually saw:

FA: 93.9 mph (Grade 50/55), -3.7" xMov (Grade 40), 7.0" zMov (Grade 30)

This is not a good pitch...flat and straight with average velocity. He has lost velocity since his 2018 debut when he was throwing it 95.3 mph. This FA should not be the foundation of a pitcher's arsenal if he hopes to be a MLB contributor.

SL: 88.1 mph (65), 1.4" xMov (45), 3.3" zMov (40)

This is a slider/cutter hybrid that should be decently effective.

CH: 6.4 mph delta (40), -6.2" xMov (40), 1.9" zMov (60/65)

The change is a pretty good downer, and can be used to keep hitters honest.

SI: 92.9 mph (50+), -8.6" xMov (50), 3.5" zMov (60)

This is a good pitch, and by far his best fastball. He should be relying on this, not the FA. It will pair especially well with that hard slider.

CU: 79.5 mph (55), 9.8" xMov (80), 0.3" zMov (25)

This is the frisbee I was referring to last night. It has tremendous sweeping action away from RHH, and is shaped like the curve typically seen from side-arming RHP. This pitch could make Wilson VERY effective against RHH.

Overall:

I realize folks love the narrative of Wilson being a "bulldog" and going right after hitters, but he simply doesn't have the stuff to do it. That straight and flat FA is going to be destroyed by MLB hitters. He needs to be a sinker/slider guy, not a guy who "comes right at the hitter", because he will be annihilated.

If Wilson increases the usage of his SI, and mixes it in with that hard SL and frisbee CU, he can be very effective vs RHH out of the BP. If he progresses with that CH, or learns how to bury the SL down and in to LHH, there is no reason he can't be a guy who faces 9-18 batters a game. This could be especially true if he follows a LHP who the opposing team stacked RHH in the lineup to counter.

But that FA has to go, or he won't succeed, and someone needs to tell him that now...not in the off season...now. He's already losing velocity, as is typically the case with pitchers in their early 20s. He needs to realize he is not a bulldog with dominating stuff, he is a pitcher with mediocre stuff.