Spot on analysis as usual!
2-3 WAR guy through team control would be amazing. That is what I see. If I had to put money on it, I would lower it to 1.5 to 2.5 WAR.
That might not make people happy given his prospect rating and his drafting before Kyle Lewis. I was on team draft Kyle Lewis after Senzel went. I really wanted Senzel. They wanted Anderson, Wentz and Muller. We shall see if Muller is able to make an argument for Anderson plus Muller over Lewis.
I think Muller is going to be best as an Andrew Miller style Reliever. I think Kyle is going to win this argument hands down.
Clearly not anymore. The game has changed so much in terms of the tools to provide analysis and the fact that guys work year-round on their game now. Back in the Dark Ages when I first started watching the game, there were a few guys with really odd deliveries that would keep batters off-stride. Warren Spahn always said--in a very wise-a** way--that he only needed two pitches: The one the batter thought we was going to throw and the one was going to throw. That simply won't work anymore and a lot of it is due to the kinds of data you post here. Teams just know guys a lot more thoroughly now through the data and video tape. The last two guys I remember whose deception held up over the long period were Luis Tiant (after he re-invented himself) and Fernando Valenzuela.
jpx7 (09-02-2020)
Although he's struggled mightily over the last few seasons, you could probably add Cueto to that list - not sure that a significant part of his success shouldn't be attributed to deception. He had good but not great stuff for the majority of his career, and I'm not sure how much of it was owed to having significantly better movement than others during the time period. He'd probably make for a decent case-study.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
Supposedly the Braves plan was to get Trammell at #40 as it was believed his bonus requirements would allow him to drop that far. It was a bit of a surprise when the Reds picked him at #35 and then paid him mid-1st bonus money. While I doubt that left the Braves grasping, it threw a wrench into the gear box. Curious to see how Wentz recovers from surgery.
DirkPiggler (08-28-2020), jpx7 (08-28-2020)
JohnAdcox (09-02-2020)
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
Well, he went six innings in his first start against the Yankees(like the only starter besides Fried and Soroka to do that probably this year). At worst, it looks like he can throw strikes and eat innings. He “should” be in the rotation for years to come. I’ve watched so many of these high prospects looked scared to death and have problems locating. Watching him, he acted like he had been in the big leagues for a while. Was impressive.
JohnAdcox (09-02-2020)
Last night we watched Anderson pick up pretty much where he left off, and have a great follow up performance to his stellar debut. He mostly mixed FA/CH the first 2 times through the lineup, and then relied heavily on the CU the 3rd time through. In the last inning he was clearly out of gas, but was still able to execute the CU over and over to get through the lineup a 3rd time. Granted, the lineups the Yankees and Red Sox threw out there weren't exactly world beaters, but there was a lot to like about both performances.
Several of us noted Anderson's CU looked better last night, but we all know the eye test on TV is unreliable...to put it nicely. However, in this case we were mostly right. Anderson was putting 2133 RPM on the CU last night, a nice improvement over the 2076 value in his debut. We can't get movement split by game, but his CU overall has improved as follows (15 pitches in debut, 30 pitches in second game):
80.2 mph up to 80.6 mph
0.8" xMov up to 1.1"
-4.2" zMov up to -5.1"
Now we have to be careful here because these readings were taken at 2 different parks using 2 different Trackman systems that may be calibrated differently, but knowing the number of pitches he threw in both games, we can use middle school algebra to solve for X and say the CU last night looked something like 5.5" of sink on the pitch. Adding over an inch of movement to his CU gives it Grade 55 drop, and is probably something we could have truly noticed with the eye test.
Anderson's execution of the CH was already known to be advanced for his age. Last night we saw him execute the CU similarly at the end of the game, which allowed him to navigate the lineup a 3rd time. This is precisely how a guy with #4 stuff goes from being a ~2 WAR SP to a 3+ WAR #3, and is what is meant when folks say "but his command allows his stuff to play up". Incremental improvements in the stuff like we saw last night, either through adding a bit of spin rate, or tweaking the rotation axis to get more efficient use of the spin, is how we see guys improve until the stuff starts to naturally fade as they age.
Oh, and that 1700 RPM value reported on his CU was obviously a joke by some FO member. We all guessed it was wrong, and we were right.
Last edited by Enscheff; 09-02-2020 at 11:44 AM.
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Updates?
Enscheff thanks for the analysis.
I am going to assume Soroka will be pitching next year as a starter but not up to his standards. I'm thinking about a Bauer, Fried, Soroka, Anderson, Other starting 5 and they are good thoughts.
jpx7 (09-02-2020)
Can you grade Erlin's stuff too? I'm kidding. I'm not sure I can handle it.