Ian Anderson's stuff

[Enscheff]

We finally got to see 90 pitches from Ian Anderson. The results were outstanding, but what about the arsenal responsible for those results?

I expect to see Anderson showcase a FA with poor rise, and tomorrow I expect to be calling for him to switch to a sinker.

I expect to see Anderson throw a usable CU with a spin rate much higher than 1700, but only be a pitch good enough for early strikes.

I expect to see a plus or better change that will be the key to any MLB success he has, as it is likely his out pitch.

I expect to see command issues while he over throws, followed by a lot of complaining on this board.

So far....

FA: 95+, little horizontal movement, may have good rise
CU: 80-81, not much movement, spin rates may be an issue
CH: 88-89 mediocre speed difference from FA, minimal horizontal, seems to have good sink, and based on hitter's reactions so far it mimics the FA well

FA: 94.2 mph (Grade 55), -2.3" xMov (Grade 35), 9.2" zMov (Grade 70/75)

My expectations were wrong, and my eye test during the game was spot on. This is a straight as an arrow FA with plus-plus or better rise. The most interesting part is his 2001 RPM spin rate on the pitch ranks him #414 out of 427 MLB pitchers who have thrown 25+ FAs in 2020. How is this possible? Well, we all saw him come straight over the top, resulting in almost perfect backspin (meaning very high spin efficiency). That same pure back spin gives him very little arm side run, and means a SI is likely not something he can add easily without altering his arm slot. Overall this is a plus pitch, and I am pleasantly surprised.

CH: 6.5 mph delta (Grade 45), -5.8" xMov (Grade 35/40), 5.0" zMov (Grade 50)

The eye test was mostly right, though I expected to see more sink on this pitch. Overall, this is an average or worse CH, but he seems to be able to locate and execute it well, which makes it play up a bit.

CU: 80.2 mph (Grade 55), 0.8" xMov (Grade 30), -4.2" zMov (Grade 50)

The CU grades out better than I expected, and is probably average-ish overall. The actual spin rate on it is 2076, and clearly higher than the 1700 that was kicked around for a couple years now...so no real surprise there. That spin rate ranks #246 out of 271 MLB pitches who have thrown 10+ CUs in 2020.

Command:

It's obviously way too early to grade command, but we saw the guy fill up the strike zone last night despite being fired up for his MLB debut. We saw him locate the CH well. I have no doubt he's closer to the FV half of the 45/55 grades FG hung on his command.

Overall:

We saw a straight rising FA, an average-ish CU, and a CH that's average-ish but played up due to good execution. Due to his over the top arm slot, nothing moves side to side, but he gets good up and down movement. Watching him on TV I figured the CH was his main weapon, but after looking at the data his rising FA is his main pitch that makes everything else more effective.

A single plus pitch and a couple of average-ish secondary pitches with average control is pretty much the definition of a #4 SP. It's basically one step up in value from a BP arm. Maybe his command plays up and he flashes stints of being a #3 type guy, but his low spin rates leave very little opportunity to add additional secondary pitches as was the case with Fried.

[CJ9]

Interesting, thanks for writing this up.

I saw this tweet (https://twitter.com/ckurcon/status/1...651694080?s=20) earlier speaking highly about the quality of the changeup. Safe to say you disagree with it?

[Super]

A single plus pitch and a couple of average-ish secondary pitches with average control is pretty much the definition of a #4 SP. It's basically one step up in value from a BP arm. Maybe his command plays up and he flashes stints of being a #3 type guy, but his low spin rates leave very little opportunity to add additional secondary pitches as was the case with Fried.

so, does this mean you can't see much improvement out of him?
or is it very possible considering he's 22 years old.

[Enscheff]

Interesting, thanks for writing this up.

I saw this tweet (https://twitter.com/ckurcon/status/1...651694080?s=20) earlier speaking highly about the quality of the changeup. Safe to say you disagree with it?

I don't know where he is getting those 10" of movement values, but they aren't from statcast, displayed here:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ia...&pitchtype=all

Literally nobody gets 10" of sink on a CH as defined by statcast (which is the movement away from the trajectory a ball would take with zero forces acting upon it due to spin, only the force of gravity), so I have no idea what values this guy is quoting. That type of sink comes from massive overspin on a CU like Fried's or Touki's, and again, I have no clue what data this guy is looking at...but it certainly isn't statcast data...which is the data source used by all MLB teams and every baseball writer.

The CH is a deception pitch meant to look like a FA, and it was pretty clear last night hitters were fooled. Was it because they had never seen Anderson's FA/CH combo, and the novelty will wear off? Is it because Anderson was facing the Yankees B Team, and would have been pummeled by the real hitters? Or was it because he does an excellent job making those 2 pitches look similar out of his hand? I'm guessing a little bit of all 3.

[NYCBrave]

Great write-up. Something I heard a lot yesterday was the deception he has when pitches. So does this make his stuff play up? And if so, is this captured in the analytics of his performance at all?

[Tapate50]

Could he throw a split or would it mock the change too much ?

[Enscheff]

so, does this mean you can't see much improvement out of him?
or is it very possible considering he's 22 years old.

I don't now what he could improve upon based on this data,which only suggests arsenal adjustments.

I've never seen anyone improve spin rates. so that isn't a possible avenue for improvement.

He already gets nearly perfect spin efficiency on the FA to make it a good pitch, so unless he adds velocity I don't see room for improvement there.

The CU is never going to be good due to spin rate, and it's not like adding a poor SL will be a big help.

So outside of improving his command, or adding velocity, I don't see any tweak he can make for improvement based on this data. Those things can definitely happen, and both do happen from time to time, but more often the velocity declines immediately while while the command improves to offset the decline until the pitcher is no longer MLB-caliber.

As soon as Anderson looses 2-3 MPH off the FA, I see no way he is a viable MLB pitcher in any capacity. So use him up until then is my opinion.

[Tapate50]

I don't now what he could improve upon based on this data,which only suggests arsenal adjustments.

I've never seen anyone improve spin rates. so that isn't a possible avenue for improvement.

He already gets nearly perfect spin efficiency on the FA to make it a good pitch, so unless he adds velocity I don't see room for improvement there.

The CU is never going to be good due to spin rate, and it's not like adding a poor SL will be a big help.

So outside of improving his command, or adding velocity, I don't see any tweak he can make for improvement based on this data. Those things can definitely happen, and both do happen from time to time, but more often the velocity declines immediately while while the command improves to offset the decline until the pitcher is no longer MLB-caliber.

So trade him today is what your saying

[Enscheff]

Great write-up. Something I heard a lot yesterday was the deception he has when pitches. So does this make his stuff play up? And if so, is this captured in the analytics of his performance at all?

Can you name a single pitcher who used "deception" to have success for more than a few starts?

[bravesfanMatt]

I wonder if he could be a guy with multiple arm slots. Fastball/ curve/change over the top then sinker/slider at 3/4 slot. Doesn’t have to flash everything a lot. Just enough to keep the hitter aware it is there.

[Enscheff]

So trade him today is what your saying

#4 SPs who flash #3 and can pitch 6+ innings are valuable.

If some team values him as a no-hit TOR guy, then yes, trade him. If everyone knows what he actually is, and values him accordingly, keep him. I'm guessing he is gobbling up innings in Atlanta for a while.

[striker42]

Interesting. The change looked like a plus pitch yesterday. I'm guessing the change and fastball probably look identical coming out of his hand. The rise of the fastball and sink of the change made up for the less than ideal delta.

[atl717]

Fried doesn't get tons of spin, yet he added a plus slider pretty quickly. He seems to also be mixing in more 2 seamers, especially in to righties.

My eye test tells me Anderson's change is plus. His fastball definitely gets great rise, and that's due to the extension and over the top motion. I will say that this rising action will have less of an effect when Anderson loses velocity. He more than anyone needs to maintain velocity for as long as he can or he will get knocked around. if that FB averages 92 instead of 94 he's going to be a lot less effective I think.

[bravesfanMatt]

Some of his change ups were flat at 89. Some dropped at 87ish. Wonder if he throws 2 different changeups.

[clvclv]

So trade him today is what your saying

Don't think that was it.

Would guess that answer would depend on what you get in return. Does he get you Lynn straight-up? Would he and Riley get you Devers or Seager and Gonzales plus some cash?

[atl717]

I wonder if he could be a guy with multiple arm slots. Fastball/ curve/change over the top then sinker/slider at 3/4 slot. Doesn’t have to flash everything a lot. Just enough to keep the hitter aware it is there.

What? You can't change arm slots. That's just tipping hitters to what's coming and can lead to command issues and possible injuries. Everything needs to be thrown from the same slot.

[thewupk]

Interesting. The change looked like a plus pitch yesterday. I'm guessing the change and fastball probably look identical coming out of his hand. The rise of the fastball and sink of the change made up for the less than ideal delta.

I'd tend to agree. Pitch tunneling will make your stuff play up.

[CrazyTrain]

Interesting. The change looked like a plus pitch yesterday. I'm guessing the change and fastball probably look identical coming out of his hand. The rise of the fastball and sink of the change made up for the less than ideal delta.

Bingo!

[Enscheff]

Fried doesn't get tons of spin, yet he added a plus slider pretty quickly. He seems to also be mixing in more 2 seamers, especially in to righties.

My eye test tells me Anderson's change is plus. His fastball definitely gets great rise, and that's due to the extension and over the top motion. I will say that this rising action will have less of an effect when Anderson loses velocity. He more than anyone needs to maintain velocity for as long as he can or he will get knocked around. if that FB averages 92 instead of 94 he's going to be a lot less effective I think.

Umm, Max Fried has elite spin on his breaking stuff. It is literally the key to his dominance.

I agree with you on Anderson though. Once the velocity starts to wane, he is done as a MLB pitcher. Since that tends to happen almost immediately, the Braves need to use him up while they can.

[Russ2dollas]

I don't now what he could improve upon based on this data,which only suggests arsenal adjustments.

I've never seen anyone improve spin rates. so that isn't a possible avenue for improvement.

He already gets nearly perfect spin efficiency on the FA to make it a good pitch, so unless he adds velocity I don't see room for improvement there.

The CU is never going to be good due to spin rate, and it's not like adding a poor SL will be a big help.

So outside of improving his command, or adding velocity, I don't see any tweak he can make for improvement based on this data. Those things can definitely happen, and both do happen from time to time, but more often the velocity declines immediately while while the command improves to offset the decline until the pitcher is no longer MLB-caliber.

I thought some Astros guys improved spin rates. And Bauer said it was impossible without using foreign substances. And twitter fights ensued.

Thanks for doing these.

There was a great tweet from pitching ninja showing the tunneling of the fastball and change up. It was spot on. I think he is getting good results b/c he has good velocity with rise on the FB and control of a tunneled Change with some sink.

I liked how low effort the delivery was. Seemed long and lanky but repeated it.

I didn't see world beater stuff. The analysis did not suggest that. I worry what the results will be when more data and video is available on him.

After reading this I am even more glad we called him up. He is clearly better than what we have now. Is at least a great number 5 starter for a long time. I worry with this arsenal if he loses even a little velocity that he will lose his effectiveness big time. So I'm really glad he is up at 22, because you never know when that velocity is going to slip.