Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[bravesfanMatt]

huh? no one said every single GM is waiting the market out.
there don't appear to be many bidders for Ozuna specifically right now. a report named the Braves, Rays, and Twins. Twins are out. why go and offer Ozuna a 4-year deal right now when you likely don't need to? Ozuna is trying to wait for that kind of deal to come. AA is trying to wait until Ozuna's asking price comes down. i'm not sure how teams making trades relates to that at all.

AA probably has dollar numbers for each guy he's comfortable with. AA had a number for Smyly and Morton and they came to it. Ozuna hasn't come down to that number yet.

like why don't you just be patient?

I am not saying Ozuna isn’t going to sign with us. I feel he liked us and probably wants to come back. I am saying if somehow we miss him then we are pretty much out of options.

[Super]

AA is way too afraid of bad contracts! should have just signed Donaldson for 4/92 last year. what's he so afraid of?

[Southcack77]

Mortgaging the future would be dealing Pache for an averageish bat. Or signing Ozuna or another player to a 5+ year deal. Neither of which is what most of us are calling for him to do. Dealing Waters and some other pieces for an impact bat like JRam or Chapman is a fair deal. Signing Ozuna to a 3 or 4 year deal with an AAV of 18-20 million won't cripple the team beyond repair. He's 30, not 34 like Donaldson was last year, or 36 like Turner is this year. He's a safe bet to be a big bat for the next 3 or 4 years, especially if he's not playing the field.

Ozuna isn't a very safe bet at all.

Before the half season where he had a career high BABIP (.391 vs career .319) and a career high HR/FB (26.5% vs 16/6%), Ozuna was a 110 wRC+ guy with one outlier big season.

If Ozuna wants to be paid like he's an in his prime 170 wRC+ guy with no risk, it's not going to be in Atlanta on a multi-year deal. As it should not be.

It sucks that the Braves have uncertainty at this point in the season, but it would be better to miss the playoffs next year than take on bad risk.

Signing a guy to a long term contract just to secure his presence in a season where there is no DH doesn't make sense. Particularly when he has no obvious suitors to do that.

Do I think they should probably offer him more than whatever the Rays have on the table (which won't be much). Yeah probably.

[bravesfanMatt]

AA is way too afraid of bad contracts! should have just signed Donaldson for 4/92 last year. what's he so afraid of?

Big stretch there chief. It is pretty clear he is risk adverse. To what extent we don’t know. But he hasn’t made a significant trade or signing since he took over. Everything has been safe. We are great up for it because he has been lucky. How long does that luck last though.

[Super]

I am not saying Ozuna isn’t going to sign with us. I feel he liked us and probably wants to come back. I am saying if somehow we miss him then we are pretty much out of options.

this isn't true, but yes we all understand that if every option goes elsewhere, they won't be going to Atlanta.
that doesn't mean you just panic and buy high and sign Ozuna for whatever he's insisting on right now like you seemingly want to do.

[Southcack77]

wow, uh, ok. i'd love to be so comfortable with those 2 guys as a 4&5, but i'm not at all. their performances last year were not good at all.
on top of that, you have to account for the inevitable injuries.
Wright and his 7.11 k/9 along with 5.68 bb/9 and 5.90 FIP is not even 5th starter worthy. and again, that's *before* injuries force him into a higher spot. no thanks. i am very glad pitching was addressed so aggressively.

I agree.

I also don't think that AAV is the issue with signing Ozuna so I don't think those acquisitions have much to do with why he hasn't been signed.

Taking on risk just to be to able to say you are the third favorite in the NL in April doesn't really make a lot of sense.

[bravesfanMatt]

Ozuna isn't a very safe bet at all.

Before the half season where he had a career high BABIP (.391 vs career .319) and a career high HR/FB (26.5% vs 16/6%), Ozuna was a 110 wRC+ guy with one outlier big season.

If Ozuna wants to be paid like he's an in his prime 170 wRC+ guy with no risk, it's not going to be in Atlanta on a multi-year deal. As it should not be.

It sucks that the Braves have uncertainty at this point in the season, but it would be better to miss the playoffs next year than take on bad risk.

Signing a guy to a long term contract just to secure his presence in a season where there is no DH doesn't make sense. Particularly when he has no obvious suitors to do that.

Do I think they should probably offer him more than whatever the Rays have on the table (which won't be much). Yeah probably.

Everyone is saying Ozuna this. Ozuna that. We could have signed others this offseason for what they signed for and not been in a position to have to offer Ozuna a big contract or miss the playoffs.

[Super]

Big stretch there chief. It is pretty clear he is risk adverse. To what extent we don’t know. But he hasn’t made a significant trade or signing since he took over. Everything has been safe. We are great up for it because he has been lucky. How long does that luck last though.

right, totally, he's way too risk-averse. should've gotten Donaldson done early last offseason. that would've ended up great.

[Super]

Everyone is saying Ozuna this. Ozuna that. We could have signed others this offseason for what they signed for and not been in a position to have to offer Ozuna a big contract or miss the playoffs.

who? who did you want so badly?
it's like you're a child who just wants temporary excitement at any cost.

[Super]

Taking on risk just to be to able to say you are the third favorite in the NL in April doesn't really make a lot of sense.

exactly. people just want that jolt of excitement at seeing their team in the headlines.
i'd rather the team not be saddled with a bad contract just to make myself feel better for a few days.

[tululush]

Signing a player to a long term deal increases the chances that a player ends up flopping.

It would suck and it would be a failure if Inciarte starts playoff games this year, but I don't think it is going to come to that.

I agree, and if AA is so risk averse offer a shorter term deal with higher AAV.

Even if we sign nobody, Ender won’t be starting a playoff game. Waters should be ready by then if we’re not signing anyone. I’m more concerned about the regular season. If Ender is starting at all it should be due to injury or giving someone a rest.

[bravesfanMatt]

who? who did you want so badly?
it's like you're a child who just wants temporary excitement at any cost.

Joc. Brantley and springer were all signed to reasonable contracts. And we can all say they wanted to go to X team but we all know money talks.

[Super]

we all agree AA needs to sign a bat or three. we all seem to agree one of them needs to be a big one.
there aren't *that* many suitors for Ozuna right now. his asking price is high. with the lack of suitors, and as other affordable deals come in (Pederson for $7M to be a starter), Ozuna's price will likely come down. maybe it hasn't yet. maybe it hasn't come down enough. maybe he's still demanding 4/$88. so do the whiners want AA to sign him for 4/$88, a deal no other team has so far been willing to match, and is the tippy-top of his value, just because they want to see a move made?

AA hasn't left the team high and dry yet. so far, each offseason, he's had a plan, and it's worked out. i assume he has a plan, and i'm glad he doesn't panic and sign someone at their first, highest ask.

[Super]

Joc. Brantley and springer were all signed to reasonable contracts. And we can all say they wanted to go to X team but we all know money talks.

Joc wanted to start and is in Chicago.
Brantley wanted to stay in Houston.
no thanks on Springer's deal.
if all of them signed reasonable contracts, what makes you think Ozuna won't sign a more reasonable contract than 4/$88m? that's not a reasonable contract. so why sign him to it when that's his current ask?

[Southcack77]

I’m not saying we should sign Ozuna to a 4 year deal. If we were, he’d be signed already. I’m saying 3 years max, and at 30, that’s not an awful risk. Certainly no more than anyone else. Nothing in his peripherals say he’s going to regress. Maybe a 2 year deal gets him? Hell, maybe a 1 year deal gets him. The only real rumored on in him is Tampa.

While it is true that his expected stats did not show a lot of luck in his results last season, Ozuna's performance in a very strange year was in every way a statistical outlier to his career at large.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

So maybe a contract year and being a full time DH leveled Ozuna up as a hitter for the back half of his career. Or maybe he just saw the ball astonishingly well for one half season at the end of his athletic prime.

[Super]

I agree, and if AA is so risk averse offer a shorter term deal with higher AAV.

how do you know he hasn't and Ozuna's agent said no?
you do realize AA can't just make players sign with Atlanta, right?

[Southcack77]

Big stretch there chief. It is pretty clear he is risk adverse. To what extent we don’t know. But he hasn’t made a significant trade or signing since he took over. Everything has been safe. We are great up for it because he has been lucky. How long does that luck last though.

He signed Josh Donaldson, Marcel Ozuna, Cole Hamels, among others, to expensive deals. How is that not taking risk or making a significant signing?

In your view, moves are only risky or significant if you are wagering the entire competitive window on them?

[Super]

While it is true, his expected stats did not show a lot of luck in his results last season, Ozuna's performance in a very strange year was in every way a statistical outlier to his career at large.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

So maybe a contract year and being a full time DH leveled Ozuna up as a hitter for the back half of his career. Or maybe he just saw the ball astonishingly well for one half season at the end of his athletic prime.

this is another thing.
Ozuna is coming off an insane year with the bat. the kind of year he's never even come close to producing. he's trying to capitalize on that. but by no means should AA just cave to his demands. his asking price is going to come down. i don't blame him for starting high, and i don't blame AA for saying no thanks at those dollars.

if AA signed Ozuna for let's say 4/$82 and he produces a 109 wRC+ as the DH in the first year....there will be a *ton* of whining about it.

[Super]

if you could guarantee me that Ozuna would be a 160 or higher wRC+ hitter for 2 of the 4 years, sure, sign him for what he's asking.
it's far more likely he reverts back to that 110 range for the majority of the deal. in which case he's well overpaid and underwhelming as a DH.

[tululush]

how do you know he hasn't and Ozuna's agent said no?
you do realize AA can't just make players sign with Atlanta, right?

This is a fair point. If he has two offers on the table: a one year deal from Tampa and a one/two year offer from Atlanta, still hasn’t signed bc he wants more years and/or money, then wait him out.