Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[bravesfanforlife88]

So if DH is out and we get ozuna, Duvall out, right? Ender would be the replacement, right?

I don't think so. I think we could still bring back Duvall for pretty cheap. He'd just be the late inning replacement and occasional spot start/pinch hit.

Acuna missed a lot of time last season with nagging injuries, so we'd definitely need another OF bat

[Tapate50]

Yeah, I really thought we'd improve around the edges a little more. Upgrade Camargo, and 5th OF bat.

[Super]

Oh you mean aside from the fact that he drove in 30+ more runs alone in the19’ season with Donaldson behind him? Teams were more inclined to pitch to him more because of the power bat behind him.

LMAO
we've had a nice little run the last few weeks with no asinine comments. RIP.

[Carp]

Oh you mean aside from the fact that he drove in 30+ more runs alone in the19’ season with Donaldson behind him? Teams were more inclined to pitch to him more because of the power bat behind him.

RBI's are totally dependent on the people in front of you, not behind you. He walked at exactly the same rate in those years as he did in 2019, yet his extra base hit % was a full 2 points higher in 2016 and 2017 than it was in 2019. So any notion that he was pitched around or didn't see as many fastballs in those seasons doesn't hold any water. He got on base the same amount and he extra base hits more frequently without "protection."

He literally hit better with Markakis behind him than he did with JD. That's just a fact. And this idea of "protection" is a crock of **** that only dinosaurs still believe, just like how they still believe that leadoff hitters need to be fast.

[UNCBlue012]

Morosi said the Braves are still very much favorites to re-sign Ozuna

[Carp]

Protection is stupid. But I don’t need Any stats to tell me that if I am a pitcher with a runner on second and one or two out I’m not giving Freddie Freeman anything to hit especially with TDA behind him and all the other garbage behind that

Those scenarios don't happen too frequently. Freddie had only 37 PAs with that scenario in 2019. Still, he was only walked 10 times and he hit .333 with a .958 OPS, so plenty of pitchers certainly weren't afraid to attack him. Comparatively in 2016 with Neck behind him in 26 PAs, he walked only 4 times with a .318 average and a 1.014 OPS.

Given enough PAs, players tend to hit the same way in certain situations that they hit in every other situation.

Everyone thought Jeter was the most clutch hitter ever and A-Rod was a choker. But if you look at each guys numbers in those situations, they are pretty similar to their overall career numbers as a hitter. We just perceive certain moments as more important and they craft our opinions, but the stats say differently.

[bravesfanMatt]

Yes protection is a myth. But there will be several situations where he will be pitched around because the guy behind him is Riley or TDA and I know am throwing to them if there is a guy on second. If FF wants to swing at my crap, good. But he isn’t getting anything good to hit.

[50PoundHead]

We have Freddie, Acuna, Ozzie, TDA, and Swanson, and people think our offense is gonna be anemic...


We could literally sign Matt Joyce and Duvall fot LF and go with Ender/Pache in CF and our offense would still finish in the upper half of the league.

Please no.

[bravesfanMatt]

Those scenarios don't happen too frequently. Freddie had only 37 PAs with that scenario in 2019. Still, he was only walked 10 times and he hit .333 with a .958 OPS, so plenty of pitchers certainly weren't afraid to attack him. Comparatively in 2016 with Neck behind him in 26 PAs, he walked only 4 times with a .318 average and a 1.014 OPS.

Given enough PAs, players tend to hit the same way in certain situations that they hit in every other situation.

Everyone thought Jeter was the most clutch hitter ever and A-Rod was a choker. But if you look at each guys numbers in those situations, they are pretty similar to their overall career numbers as a hitter. We just perceive certain moments as more important and they craft our opinions, but the stats say differently.

I agree. It won’t be often. I also think with Neck it was lefty lefty. When you have a righty behind FF, managers are going to go matchups. But still from a logical mindset if Acuna is sitting on second and two outs. I am not letting FF beat me.

[bravesfanMatt]

I really hate not having the DH. I would love to add a real OF with Ozuna. Our bench is so weak that I am afraid injuries will expose us.

[NYCBrave]

Morosi said the Braves are still very much favorites to re-sign Ozuna

It just doesn't seem like there is any real competition at this point to sign him. Feels more like a staring contest between the Braves and Ozuna to see who will blink first and give in to the others demands.

Unless a team comes out of nowhere with a boat load of cash, it's starting to feel more like we have a good chance to get Ozuna back.

[NYCBrave]

It's interesting that there hasnt been any Melancon news. I expect the Braves will bring him back. Almost get the feeling they are giving him the opportunity to shop around for more than they are able to offer.

[UNCBlue012]

Sherman: Heard #Mets set a noon deadline Eastern with Bauer today. Heard the deal has opt outs after 1st 2 yrs. Worth about $40M in year 1 and then again in year 2. Worth less in year 3. Total is between $100M-$110M. Feels like decision is next few hours, 1 way or the other.

[UNCBlue012]

It's interesting that there hasnt been any Melancon news. I expect the Braves will bring him back. Almost get the feeling they are giving him the opportunity to shop around for more than they are able to offer.

I thought he would have been signed quickly. He seemed to like the Braves and they liked him.

[clvclv]

Something that really hasn't been discussed over the winter but probably should be...

While they haven't talked about it publicly, it's probably fair to surmise that there's a relatively strong belief in Riley's 2020 improvements - at least by several in positions fairly high up the decision-making chain.

There has been no discussion (at least in the rumors we've seen and heard) about "upgrading" at 3B unless it was going to be both big-time and long-term - Ramirez/Chapman/Suarez. They've consistently said they're not interested in Bryant - whether at 3B or in LF. Does that mean that they think Riley will match or surpass Bryant's declining metrics in several categories - especially given the cost to obtain Bryant plus the money? Maybe not, but it's an interesting question I'd like to hear someone ask AA. I think you could make the argument that signing Turner as the fallback to Ozuna wouldn't really be looked at as an attempt to upgrade 3B, even if he were to get a multi-year deal. Riley would shift to LF to keep it warm for Waters (or another signing) with Turner shifting to DH and Riley moving back next season.

In any event, spending the money AA spent early on pitching at least signals that they believe pretty strongly that Riley will continue to improve - regardless of which position he plays - since they apparently were uninterested in spreading the money out among multiple middle of the road types of players at either position. There were very few rumors that we were ever strongly in on Pederson/Rosario/Mazara as platoon pieces in LF, and we haven't heard the first whisper of any interest in a LH bat to share time with him at 3B - the only times we've seen Moran/Shaw/Holt/Cabrera/Miller talked about was when they were mentioned here, nothing about any of them from the writers and insiders.

It appears that the plan all along has been for him to get everyday ABs at one of the two positions with all the available money spent on whomever AA brought in at the other - at least until the deadline. If they didn't believe in him, they've had plenty of chances to bring in relatively solid platoons at both positions. You can argue that they still can - and you'd be right - but it would seem a bit odd to do that this late in the offseason when they haven't appeared interested in doing that at all before now. It just appears it's Ozuna or Turner (or trade for a legitimate star) with Riley holding down the other spot.

[NYCBrave]

I thought he would have been signed quickly. He seemed to like the Braves and they liked him.

Don't forget his last contract he was making $14 million a year. Who knows if he was interested in taking a big time pay cut the Braves likely offered. Looks like he has no choice.

[clvclv]

Please no.

Think there was plenty of sarcasm in that statement, but still a fairly legitimate point.

While definitely not sexy, a Mazara/Duvall platoon (if deployed correctly) would be pretty solid and wouldn't exactly make opposing Pitchers ever feel like they were getting a "day off" against this lineup.

[UNCBlue012]

Craig Mish just said there's a 45% chance Ozuna returns to Braves.

He says Rays are 70%. YIKES

[UNCBlue012]

Mish: per sources Marcell Ozuna market moving forward. Rays appear to be among final teams involved. Braves still possible. Could be another. Will be a multi-year deal for Ozuna once final. 3-4 year range. Not imminent.

[bravesfanMatt]

Isn’t mish the marlins guy.