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Thread: Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    I think the better way to ask what skillet was saying is do we think wright/wilson and/or others are good enough to minimize the impact of Drew so that we could have used his 11 million elsewhere. Could we have snagged a cheaper starter as insurance and used the other 8-9 million in savings to add bullpen depth or better bench guys and trust the flashes that wilson and Wright showed at times.

    I think that is a fair question. One that could be more debatable
    If Soroka weren't coming off a serious injury and had we gotten a longer look at Anderson last year, I might agree with that. But at the moment, we need to consider that Soroka may not be available to start the season and may not be quite as affective as he comes back, and it's entirely possible that Anderson might get slapped around as teams get more looks at him. As such, we needed 2 quality starting pitchers this off-season.

    Now you could argue that Paxton signed cheaper and is a similar valued pitcher, but you'd also have to realize that we'd have had to offer more money than the 8 million Seattle offered. And considering he is originally from a town around Vancouver, it's possible he just wanted to pitch closer to home assuming the money was similar, meaning we likely would have had to offer him more than 10 million anyways.

    The only other reliable starters making less money than Smyly are Quintana and Minor. Everyone else is a complete lottery ticket.

    I will say that I'm interested to see what Jake Odorizzi and Mike Leak eventually sign for. They don't have the upside Smyly has, but they would have been quite capable as a No. 4 pitcher for us. They were two I guys I was pretty high on earlier in the off-season, along with Quintana.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    I will say that I'm interested to see what Jake Odorizzi and Mike Leak eventually sign for. They don't have the upside Smyly has, but they would have been quite capable as a No. 4 pitcher for us. They were two I guys I was pretty high on earlier in the off-season, along with Quintana.
    i think when looking at these guys, you have to consider what enscheff has pointed out a bunch of times: the playoffs. babying Smyly all year and then letting him loose for like 5 innings in the playoffs is probably the thought here. i'd rather have a guy with his stuff in a short stint than someone like Leake.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    i think when looking at these guys, you have to consider what enscheff has pointed out a bunch of times: the playoffs. babying Smyly all year and then letting him loose for like 5 innings in the playoffs is probably the thought here. i'd rather have a guy with his stuff in a short stint than someone like Leake.
    That's a consideration for sure. Despite the other worldly performance of our rotation last post-season, I really can't imagine a repeat performance from those same guys. Obviously Fried is great, but Anderson might have gotten the benefit of teams not seeing much of him and I don't think anyone expects Wilson to do what he did again.

    I've liked Odorizzi for quite a while, but I do think a healthy Smyly is likely a more dominant pitcher in the playoffs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    i think when looking at these guys, you have to consider what enscheff has pointed out a bunch of times: the playoffs. babying Smyly all year and then letting him loose for like 5 innings in the playoffs is probably the thought here. i'd rather have a guy with his stuff in a short stint than someone like Leake.
    The Braves are past the point of needing many good players to raise the baseline talent level needed to get to the playoffs after 162 games. Now that playoffs are expected, they need guys who can dominate. They can't afford someone like Cole, so they buy someone like Morton/Smyly who can perform like Cole in short stints.

    Everyone clamoring for the Braves to "build a playoff roster" should be very excited about the Morton and Smyly signings. I wanted Morton as my #1 SP option since the WS ended, and while I'm not 100% on board with the Smyly deal, I can see what AA is trying to accomplish with the signing (I disagree he is a good bet to give what AA thinks he will produce, but he has proven it's in there). These 2 SPs could very well win 2-3 games per series almost by themselves in October if they are healthy and sharp.

    I expect to see a lot of complaining about the fact Morton doesn't pitch over 150 innings, and Smyly doesn't go over 120, even though they are being intentionally limited.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 02-23-2021 at 12:01 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    I think the better way to ask what skillet was saying is do we think wright/wilson and/or others are good enough to minimize the impact of Drew so that we could have used his 11 million elsewhere. Could we have snagged a cheaper starter as insurance and used the other 8-9 million in savings to add bullpen depth or better bench guys and trust the flashes that wilson and Wright showed at times.

    I think that is a fair question. One that could be more debatable
    I'm thinking we may have collectively been over rating the importance of the bench. We see the Dodgers with 2 win players filling their bench, and understandably want the Braves to have that too. Reality tells us they have an unlimited payroll and are likely a 100-105 win team.

    What is the practical difference between a bench of Jackson/Lamb/Kipnis/Ender/SS and whatever upgrades could have been bought with another $10M? How many PAs could those guys really have been given to make an impact? 600 total? If there was a DH, maybe another quality bat is needed, but these guys aren't going to be impacting the season much barring injury.

    We also know AA was in on Rosenthal, so he is clearly trying to add to the BP with a RHP. I have to imagine BP depth is coming, even if the bench is a bit underwhelming.

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    Couple of issues with trying to baby drew and Charlie for the playoffs.

    1. Twit is our manager and not sure he knows how to properly deploy these strategies.

    2. How does one go about this. Start slow but pitch down stretch to stay sharp. Start strong. Break it in middle then pitch hard at the end. 5 innings per start? I mean is there any proven method to trying to keep pitchers sharp for the playoffs. If doing this, does it tax your pen. If you give these guys fewer innings at the end does it cause them to lose effectiveness. Not saying it can’t be done but can it be done.

    I think you want to win the division most likely. I doubt you want to be a wild card team and most likely have to go through the west gauntlet right out of the shoot. So how do you properly deploy a ‘baby’ approach and still win your division. And back to point 1. How do you do that with an inferior tactical manager.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    Couple of issues with trying to baby drew and Charlie for the playoffs.

    1. Twit is our manager and not sure he knows how to properly deploy these strategies.

    2. How does one go about this. Start slow but pitch down stretch to stay sharp. Start strong. Break it in middle then pitch hard at the end. 5 innings per start? I mean is there any proven method to trying to keep pitchers sharp for the playoffs. If doing this, does it tax your pen. If you give these guys fewer innings at the end does it cause them to lose effectiveness. Not saying it can’t be done but can it be done.

    I think you want to win the division most likely. I doubt you want to be a wild card team and most likely have to go through the west gauntlet right out of the shoot. So how do you properly deploy a ‘baby’ approach and still win your division. And back to point 1. How do you do that with an inferior tactical manager.

    This. It's baseball and anything can happen obviously. But LA is a juggernaut of a team and likely will be the class of the NL again. Winning the division gets you the NL Central winner and that division projects to be subpar as far as division winners go. You want that matchup.

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    Hopefully, we don't lose Pfeifer. He's shown something since being moved to the pen full-time.
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    Based on our moves I have to assume that AA thinks that he can get RH BP production from Webb, Weigel, Touki, Wilson,etc. He would get an impact guy for a bargain but not just take anyone.

    We seem to be short on money. It looks like we are not thinking about any platoons. So it's PH and roster management for the bench. Maybe it makes sense to save your 5 million of buying power now so you can buy 10 million worth of stuff at the deadline. It's risky b/c of the prospect cost and the competition for guys, but it could save money.

    I get the focus on the playoffs. I'm just not certain we are a playoff team. The division is good. Padres seem likely to lock down the highest record for non-division winners. WE have to make sure we get to the playoffs.

    Also interesting to see what AA thinks of guys that are close. If we lost an OF for a long period of time, does he call up Waters? If we lose a 3B, 2B or SS for a long period of time does he call up Shewmake? Does he think Wilson and Wright are going to be positives? He's clearly making a bet on Riley to be an avg major league starting player or better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    This. It's baseball and anything can happen obviously. But LA is a juggernaut of a team and likely will be the class of the NL again. Winning the division gets you the NL Central winner and that division projects to be subpar as far as division winners go. You want that matchup.
    Amen. The division is huge. Win it and you likely set up the Dodgers and Pads to play each other.

    Really hoping the Mets and Braves act like they typically act.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    Couple of issues with trying to baby drew and Charlie for the playoffs.

    1. Twit is our manager and not sure he knows how to properly deploy these strategies.

    2. How does one go about this. Start slow but pitch down stretch to stay sharp. Start strong. Break it in middle then pitch hard at the end. 5 innings per start? I mean is there any proven method to trying to keep pitchers sharp for the playoffs. If doing this, does it tax your pen. If you give these guys fewer innings at the end does it cause them to lose effectiveness. Not saying it can’t be done but can it be done.

    I think you want to win the division most likely. I doubt you want to be a wild card team and most likely have to go through the west gauntlet right out of the shoot. So how do you properly deploy a ‘baby’ approach and still win your division. And back to point 1. How do you do that with an inferior tactical manager.
    10 day DL 2-3 times, plus the AS break.

    Pushing back a start for an extra day of rest whenever possible.

    Using guys like Wright and Touki to cover 5-10 starts each.

    Giving guys like Tomlin and Ynoa 3+ innings in 2-3 games per month.

    These tactics have been pretty well covered and used by the Braves the last several seasons.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I'm thinking we may have collectively been over rating the importance of the bench. We see the Dodgers with 2 win players filling their bench, and understandably want the Braves to have that too. Reality tells us they have an unlimited payroll and are likely a 100-105 win team.

    What is the practical difference between a bench of Jackson/Lamb/Kipnis/Ender/SS and whatever upgrades could have been bought with another $10M? How many PAs could those guys really have been given to make an impact? 600 total? If there was a DH, maybe another quality bat is needed, but these guys aren't going to be impacting the season much barring injury.

    We also know AA was in on Rosenthal, so he is clearly trying to add to the BP with a RHP. I have to imagine BP depth is coming, even if the bench is a bit underwhelming.
    Injuries will happen. But the Dodgers have also leaned pretty heavily on platoons even without injuries. It doesn't look like we will be platooning much, with the possible exception of center. Since we're not planning on using platoons much, it changes the importance of bench players a bit and I'm good with trying to hit on some reclamation projects like Lamb, Kipnis and PANDA. We only really need one of those three to pan out.

    The other part of the equation is who we are carrying in the high minors. Guys like Contreras, Waters and Shewmake could be ready to step up to the majors in a few months if an injury opens up a spot in the lineup. I would like to see us have a strong defensive player at short in AAA. A modern day Paul Janish would be ideal.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 02-23-2021 at 12:37 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Injuries will happen. But the Dodgers have also leaned pretty heavily on platoons even without injuries. It doesn't look like we will be platooning much, with the possible exception of center. Since we're not planning on using platoons much, it changes the importance of bench players a bit and I'm good with trying to hit on some reclamation projects like Lamb, Kipnis and PANDA. We only really need one of those three to pan out.

    The other part of the equation is who we are carrying in the high minors. Guys like Contreras, Waters and Shewmake could be ready to step up to the majors in a few months if an injury opens up a spot in the lineup. I would like to see us have a strong defensive player at short in AAA. A modern day Paul Janish would be ideal.
    Acuna, Ozuna, Freeman and Albies certainly won't be platooned. Neither will Swanson or TDA. So other than an Ender/Pache platoon, and a possible Riley/Lamb platoon (which might prove extremely effective), I agree there aren't many places for the Braves to platoon.

    If the DH pops up things change though. Ozuna moves to primary DH, and there becomes a need for another 700 PAs to be filled by something better than a Kipnis/Camargo platoon. That's when JBJ fits this roster.

    I think Cozart is still available for SS.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 02-23-2021 at 12:43 PM.

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    Jake Lamb's deal is a non-guaranteed $1M deal.

    If his .267/.327/.556 line in 50 PAs with the As is indicative of what healthy Jake Lamb can do, this may be the best value signing of the off season. This is my 3rd favorite signing AA has made this off season behind Morton and Ozuna.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Jake Lamb's deal is a non-guaranteed $1M deal.

    If his .267/.327/.556 line in 50 PAs with the As is indicative of what healthy Jake Lamb can do, this may be the best value signing of the off season. This is my 3rd favorite signing AA has made this off season behind Morton and Ozuna.
    i will take that all day.
    Lamb is a good roster fit.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Jake Lamb's deal is a non-guaranteed $1M deal.

    If his .267/.327/.556 line in 50 PAs with the As is indicative of what healthy Jake Lamb can do, this may be the best value signing of the off season. This is my 3rd favorite signing AA has made this off season behind Morton and Ozuna.
    Wait we have only signed 4 major league contracts thus far. We know how you feel about Drew so that leaves a big gap on how good #3 really is.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Jake Lamb's deal is a non-guaranteed $1M deal.

    If his .267/.327/.556 line in 50 PAs with the As is indicative of what healthy Jake Lamb can do, this may be the best value signing of the off season. This is my 3rd favorite signing AA has made this off season behind Morton and Ozuna.
    Really has me wondering if Riley will get a shot to be a full time starter off the bat, if he will have to earn it spring training, or he will be in the short side of a platoon to start.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NYCBrave View Post
    Really has me wondering if Riley will get a shot to be a full time starter off the bat, if he will have to earn it spring training, or he will be in the short side of a platoon to start.
    If he really struggles for the first month, Snitker is not going to have much patience.

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    Lamb for 1 million is a huge value deal. AA should have everybody’s trust by now. One more bullpen arm and we should be ok. Unless the DH is brought in of course.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    i will take that all day.
    Lamb is a good roster fit.
    He is what I always wanted when I blabber about getting a guy like Mous or Shaw or whatever other LHH at 3B I recently learn is available.

    Hopefully he is healthy and not declined past the point of usefulness.

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