Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[clvclv]

Which hole did you pull that $25M from. Do you have inside info or does your imagination run wild? Same old crap every year. I hear echos of "Lets sign Lucroy and he can provide salvation to the Braves"

Read the sportrac "figures" closer - their projections don't have salaries allotted for arbitration-eligible or pre-arb players. If you use their figures, Anderson, Matzek, Pache, Riley, Soroka, and Jacob Webb plus Contreras or A-Jax (if they wind up as the backup C) will all be playing for free in 2021.


https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/atlanta-braves/payroll/

[PawPawMaxwell]

Read the sportrac "figures" closer - their projections don't have salaries allotted for arbitration-eligible or pre-arb players. If you use their figures, Anderson, Matzek, Pache, Riley, Soroka, and Jacob Webb plus Contreras or A-Jax (if they wind up as the backup C) will all be playing for free in 2021.


https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/atlanta-braves/payroll/

I look at SPOTRAC probably just as often as you and SPOTRAC just like you has not one clue as to what next years budget/payroll will be as of today. Unless you are sitting at Lake James as an unpaid assistant to AA or McQuirk I am certain that you have no idea either as to what those figures will be. Additionally, unless you fit the above situation Im sure you have no idea who AA is or is not targeting.

[clvclv]

I look at SPOTRAC probably just as often as you and SPOTRAC just like you has not one clue as to what next years budget/payroll will be as of today. Unless you are sitting at Lake James as an unpaid assistant to AA or McQuirk I am certain that you have no idea either as to what those figures will be. Additionally, unless you fit the above situation Im sure you have no idea who AA is or is not targeting.

Completely missed the point - sportrac's ~ $89 million figure doesn't factor in ANY money for the players I listed, Go back and add it up for yourself.

Feel free to explain that to everyone else - I'm far from the first person here to assume AA's probably working with a $120 million budget on the high-end. No one's happy that that's more than likely the case, but EVERY team in baseball is looking to significantly reduce payroll this winter - not just the Braves. The Cubs are considering non-tendering Schwarber to save money. The Gnats already cut loose guys with no replacements on the horizon. AA already declined O'Day's option and Jackson's still on the roster (at this point) And on and on - it's not just the small-market clubs. Owners lost their *sses in 2020, so they're going to be aggressively looking to cut costs everywhere they can moving forward - that's just smart business.

Everybody (including you) is just guessing - not sure why you want to take it personally.

(Terry McGuirk is the Chairman BTW, not sure who "McQuirk" is.)

[50PoundHead]

Just like any other worker. You want more work out of me (extended playoffs, longer season), I want more pay. OTOH the employers (MLB) want more money therefore need more work (games) from those players. You and I are old enough to remember the 154 game season and certainly in my case the two 8 team leagues playing a 7 game playoff. IIRC in those days the owners and players split the revenue from first 4 games and owners kept all rest of games/revenue money.

That's the way it was until 1969 and clearly in those days, the regular season pretty much meant everything.

To be clear, I'm not advocating any particular playoff set-up. I'll admit I'm a bit baffled by the argument that less games = less pay in an absolute sense. I don't know the percentage breakdown between gate receipts and other revenue streams for teams, but there are probably ways to even that out so players won't be taking a bath. It's going to be an interesting year-plus with the ripple effects of CoVID-19 and the impending CBA.

[msstate7]

Robbie ray for 8 million. Seems that would've been a good deal for us

[clvclv]

Robbie ray for 8 million. Seems that would've been a good deal for us

Maybe, maybe not.

He's shown no signs of harnessing his stuff even after the change of scenery trade. There's probably an argument to be made that not spending $8 million on a guy with big-time stuff that walks the ballpark more often than not is a pretty shrewd move. We've already got our own Ray in Newk - might as well see what "revamping his delivery" does and save that money.

If AA actually has $8 million to spend on a rotation piece, he'll be able to do a lot better than Ray.

[msstate7]

Maybe, maybe not.

He's shown no signs of harnessing his stuff even after the change of scenery trade. There's probably an argument to be made that not spending $8 million on a guy with big-time stuff that walks the ballpark more often than not is a pretty shrewd move. We've already got our own Ray in Newk - might as well see what "revamping his delivery does" and save that money.

If AA actually has $8 million to spend on a rotation piece, he'll be able to do a lot better than Ray.

That makes sense

[50PoundHead]

The Ray signing seems like a premature jump before gauging what the market will be. Ray's got big-time stuff if he can ever get it harnessed consistently like he did in 2017. Still only 29.

[Heyward]

There's better rotation options out there than Ray if we have 8 mil or more to use on one.

[Carp]

Morton is who I hope we end up with. Fully expect it to be Lester or Wainwright though.

[clvclv]

Morton is who I hope we end up with. Fully expect it to be Lester or Wainwright though.

Will say a quick rotation addition just smells like a sneaky AA move - wouldn't be surprised to hear Alex Wood is "coming home" on a $4 million deal (with incentives) before Thanksgiving gets here. A quick trade for one of Rosario or David Peralta plus adding Wood and Melancon for a total of ~ $8 million just feels like the typical Alex "market ambush" before everyone knows what hit them. He could then stalk Brock Holt/Asdrubal Cabrera (or Colin Moran if the Pirates non-tender him) and another pen arm closer to Christmas when the players start to get nervous about where they'll be in 2021.

[50PoundHead]

Will say a quick rotation addition just smells like a sneaky AA move - wouldn't be surprised to hear Alex Wood is "coming home" on a $4 million deal (with incentives) before Thanksgiving gets here. A quick trade for one of Rosario or David Peralta plus adding Wood and Melancon for a total of ~ $8 million just feels like the typical Alex "market ambush" before everyone knows what hit them. He could then stalk Brock Holt/Asdrubal Cabrera (or Colin Moran if the Pirates non-tender him) and another pen arm closer to Christmas when the players start to get nervous about where they'll be in 2021.

$4 MM for Alex Wood? Seems pricey. I would guess the market for him will be something like $2 MM and incentives. Of course, $8 MM for Ray seems pricey as well.

I'm thinking in a little different direction than you. My guess Anthopoulos thinks DH/LF/3B first and then bargain hunts for another starting pitcher and bullpen options. I agree with you that Wood may be in the picture, but I would guess that move would be later than sooner.

[Heyward]

Will say a quick rotation addition just smells like a sneaky AA move - wouldn't be surprised to hear Alex Wood is "coming home" on a $4 million deal (with incentives) before Thanksgiving gets here. A quick trade for one of Rosario or David Peralta plus adding Wood and Melancon for a total of ~ $8 million just feels like the typical Alex "market ambush" before everyone knows what hit them. He could then stalk Brock Holt/Asdrubal Cabrera (or Colin Moran if the Pirates non-tender him) and another pen arm closer to Christmas when the players start to get nervous about where they'll be in 2021.

I think he adds some bats before a rotation piece, there's a lot of rotation options out there.

[Heyward]

Morton is who I hope we end up with. Fully expect it to be Lester or Wainwright though.

Lester's been terrible, doubt it's him. Wainwright would be ok if the price is alright. Morton would be good but i dont know if AA blows 1/3 of our money on a 4th SP.

[salmagundy]

With the MLBPA dragging their feet on some of the top issues of the off season(universal DH, play off season, etc), it's going to be a slow signing season until they finally decide on the DH, PO season, etc. According to MLBTR article, MLBPA has those issues on the "back burner".

[clvclv]

$4 MM for Alex Wood? Seems pricey. I would guess the market for him will be something like $2 MM and incentives. Of course, $8 MM for Ray seems pricey as well.

I'm thinking in a little different direction than you. My guess Anthopoulos thinks DH/LF/3B first and then bargain hunts for another starting pitcher and bullpen options. I agree with you that Wood may be in the picture, but I would guess that move would be later than sooner.

A little maybe. Here's my angle. $4 million with incentives is what the Dodgers gave him for 2020 (pre-virus). They're going to add Price to Kershaw and Buehler at the top of their rotation with Urias, May, and Gonsolin ready to step into it already, Josiah Gray marinating in Oklahoma City AND the free-agent market flooded with RPs that will allow them to substantially upgrade their pen, if AA offers Wood that security before Thanksgiving Friedman may just decide it's better to keep that $4 million to spend on a bargain RP. There's probably not a better fit for Brad Hand than the Dodgers, and if he gets a 1 or 2 year deal at ~ $8 million AAV you just paid 50% of his 2021 salary by letting Wood walk.

Wood puts the security of already having been signed in what will be a crazy market, the opportunity to be a really important piece of a legitimate contender, and the added bonus of coming home into his "figuring computer" and signs without bothering to test the market further. Even if it's a slight overpay, it's still a great deal for AA because it allows him the opportunity to bring Melancon (or another back-end arm) in to maintain his dominant pen while leaving him the majority of the available funds to figure out LF and/or 3B.

[50PoundHead]

A little maybe. Here's my angle. $4 million with incentives is what the Dodgers gave him for 2020 (pre-virus). They're going to add Price to Kershaw and Buehler at the top of their rotation with Urias, May, and Gonsolin ready to step into it already, Josiah Gray marinating in Oklahoma City AND the free-agent market flooded with RPs that will allow them to substantially upgrade their pen, if AA offers Wood that security before Thanksgiving Friedman may just decide it's better to keep that $4 million to spend on a bargain RP. There's probably not a better fit for Brad Hand than the Dodgers, and if he gets a 1 or 2 year deal at ~ $8 million AAV you just paid 50% of his 2021 salary by letting Wood walk.

Wood puts the security of already having been signed in what will be a crazy market, the opportunity to be a really important piece of a legitimate contender, and the added bonus of coming home into his "figuring computer" and signs without bothering to test the market further. Even if it's a slight overpay, it's still a great deal for AA because it allows him the opportunity to bring Melancon (or another back-end arm) in to maintain his dominant pen while leaving him the majority of the available funds to figure out LF and/or 3B.

I get all that on Alex Wood, but he hasn't pitched a full season since 2018 (I guess I don't see that as security) and I just don't see a $4 MM deal in the offing. In the era of openers and piggy-backing, Wood may be a fit for a number of teams and a bargain at some point, but I don't see him as being an early-signing unless someone does, as you say, throw out a $4 MM deal.

[clvclv]

I get all that on Alex Wood, but he hasn't pitched a full season since 2018 (I guess I don't see that as security) and I just don't see a $4 MM deal in the offing. In the era of openers and piggy-backing, Wood may be a fit for a number of teams and a bargain at some point, but I don't see him as being an early-signing unless someone does, as you say, throw out a $4 MM deal.

Not disagreeing at all. Like I said, AA's recent history with free-agents has been to ambush the market to a certain extent. The Donaldson signing was for a little more than what most expected him to get if teams were willing to wait his agent out a bit. Same thing with Hamels. Overpaying slightly (and ONLY slightly) to get those situations handled early allowed him to wait out the market for the other pieces he needed at the time, AND allowed him to hold onto all the prospects rather than getting into a situation where he had to trade them if the asking prices for a "need" started to exceed the payroll resources he had. You could make the argument that getting Hamels locked up early last winter allowed him to wait out Ozuna's market since the assumption (hindsight aside, of course) was that the rotation was completely taken care of.

Getting another rotation piece for ~ $4 million or a bat like Rosario or Peralta on a 1 year deal in the $10 million or less range before the market starts to heat up just feels like an AA thing to do - then the heavy-lifting is done and he can sit back and start bargain hunting.

[clvclv]

If there's a better one-stop shop out there this winter for AA than Arizona, I can't imagine who it is. The MadBum contract puts them in a hole, and - like everyone else - they can use pitching prospects.

Depending on the prospect cost, you could possibly get them to take Ender's money back in a trade. They could slide Daulton Varsho over to Peralta's spot in LF, and Ender could hold down CF for them in 2021 while they wait on Kristian Robinson and Alek Thomas to arrive.

While it would hurt a bit, if AA could get them to bite on Ender, two of Muller/Davidson/De La Cruz, and possibly a C if he had to sweeten the pot for Escobar and Peralta all our problems would be solved. You add your platoon partners for Riley and Duvall (and have the possibility of having Duvall and Peralta as your 2022 DH platoon with Waters in LF) while only adding $6.3 million to payroll. That means there should be plenty of money left to add a GOOD rotation piece, pen arm, backup C, and backup SS while bringing payroll in in the $120-$125 million range.

[Nerfherders]

I'm worried that any delay in deciding on the DH in the NL will give AL teams the jump on hitter FA.