Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[Enscheff]

I appreciate your attempts at becoming a heavy thinker and contributor on this board, but Joc has a career OPS vs LHP of .576. No competently run organization is gong to use him everyday as their primary plan. He is an expensive platoon bat, and while he would pair nicely with Duvall, that combo is probably too expensive if the DH is in play.

[jpx7]

Because every reference to Pederson I have seen in this thread refers to him as a platoon partner for Duvall. I actually think there are several teams out there that can find use for him as an everyday player.

If a team thinks they "can find use for him as an everyday player", those teams don't know how to properly utilize players or effectively build a roster. In normal years, Pederson is abysmal against LHP, but quite good against RHP; considering that's the higher-frequency side of a platoon, however, that nonetheless makes him a valuable player—and as a partner with Duvall, the Braves would be very well set-up in LF.

He is an expensive platoon bat, and while he would pair nicely with Duvall, that combo is probably too expensive if the DH is in play.

As we've all said ad nauseam, it just depends on how much Anthopoulos has to spend, and (as you note) what needs to be allotted to what is currently Schrödinger's NL DH spot. Nevertheless, if the cost for Pederson is right around MLBTR's prediction (2/$18m), the total for Pederson+Duvall would be ~$14m, which seems pretty reasonable given what the Braves should be able to expect from such a platoon.

I'm hoping Anthopoulos has enough money to invest around that amount in LF, whilst still having enough cash to pay Ozuna or another high-quality DH option (assuming that MLB isn't so stupid as to nix the DH for 2021). Under this scenario (as under most scenarios), I'm fine with the Braves spending next-to-nothing else on the bullpen.

[PawPawMaxwell]

I think Ill go see if I can find Horsehide Harry. Bye

[jpx7]

I think Ill go see if I can find Horsehide Harry. Bye

It may not matter, but I hope you didn't think I was trying to dismiss you or run you off. I just think Pederson is most valuable as a strong-side platoon guy, but that such a guy would still be really valuable to the Braves.

[50PoundHead]

If a team thinks they "can find use for him as an everyday player", those teams don't know how to properly utilize players or effectively build a roster. In normal years, Pederson is abysmal against LHP, but quite good against RHP; considering that's the higher-frequency side of a platoon, however, that nonetheless makes him a valuable player—and as a partner with Duvall, the Braves would be very well set-up in LF.



As we've all said ad nauseam, it just depends on how much Anthopoulos has to spend, and (as you note) what needs to be allotted to what is currently Schrödinger's NL DH spot. Nevertheless, if the cost for Pederson is right around MLBTR's prediction (2/$18m), the total for Pederson+Duvall would be ~$14m, which seems pretty reasonable given what the Braves should be able to expect from such a platoon.

I'm hoping Anthopoulos has enough money to invest around that amount in LF, whilst still having enough cash to pay Ozuna or another high-quality DH option (assuming that MLB isn't so stupid as to nix the DH for 2021). Under this scenario (as under most scenarios), I'm fine with the Braves spending next-to-nothing else on the bullpen.

I don't see a "Big Cat" Galarraga comeback.

I would be down with Pederson at a decent price. He's never going to hit LHH and he's not the greatest defensive OF, but he has played both corners (and did come up as a CF although he hasn't played there extensively since 2017) and has played some at 1B so even if he isn't in the line-up, he may provide some late-inning positional flexibility that could come in handy. His market will be one of the most interesting to watch this off-season. While one cannot throw out 2020 statistics altogether, I would guess most see him as more than a .681 OPS guy. He had a nice post-season, but that's an even more truncated sample. On top of it, I think the Braves need a Jewish player.

[Enscheff]

As we've all said ad nauseam, it just depends on how much Anthopoulos has to spend, and (as you note) what needs to be allotted to what is currently Schrödinger's NL DH spot. Nevertheless, if the cost for Pederson is right around MLBTR's prediction (2/$18m), the total for Pederson+Duvall would be ~$14m, which seems pretty reasonable given what the Braves should be able to expect from such a platoon.

I'm hoping Anthopoulos has enough money to invest around that amount in LF, whilst still having enough cash to pay Ozuna or another high-quality DH option (assuming that MLB isn't so stupid as to nix the DH for 2021). Under this scenario (as under most scenarios), I'm fine with the Braves spending next-to-nothing else on the bullpen.

We also have to keep in mind that Pache may not be deemed ready opening day, so guys who may be platooned at the end of the year won’t necessarily be platooned for the first 1-2 months of the season. Whoever AA adds probably has to at least be able to fake being an everyday guy for a little while, and I’m not sure Joc can even fake it vs LHP.

[zbhargrove]

Because every reference to Pederson I have seen in this thread refers to him as a platoon partner for Duvall. I actually think there are several teams out there that can find use for him as an everyday player. I may be over estimating your ability to discern others intent by over valuing your analytic acumen.

Let me quess the reasons for your quotation marks tho. Could it be another attempt at sarcasm?

Pretty much every single person in the baseball world considers Pederson a platoon player. He will always be.

[clvclv]

If AA's actually more comfortable looking for guys on one year prove it deals and he really wants Bryant (and can get him without giving up much), I wonder if Nomar Mazara could be a candidate to platoon with Duvall if/when he's non-tendered. .267/.333/.448 career slash against RHPs, and shouldn't cost nearly as much as Brantley, Pederson, or Rosario. You could leave Riley at 3B and play Bryant in LF most of the time, and platoon Mazara and Duvall at DH. If there is no DH, you'd play Bryant at 3B against RHPs while playing Mazara in LF. Would also give you the option of really loading the lineup against lefties with Acuna in CF, Duvall in RF, Bryant in LF, and Riley at 3B.

The flood gates are liable to open Wednesday if guys like Rosario/Schwarber/Duvall/Pham/Mazara/Shaw are cut loose - contenders will probably jump quickly to add depth and/or platoon guys.

[50PoundHead]

Interesting that you should mention Pham. They would probably have to do due diligence on him relating to his injuries sustained when he was stabbed outside a strip club last month (Story here: https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/loc...abbed/2456296/), but he's a better player than Duvall and someone whose splits to this point indicate that he could be in LF every day. Of course, the thing one has to watch for with guys in their early-30s who are coming off a disappointing season is the slope of their likely decline. It could be a slow or fast descent.

Wonder what the Padres do with him.

[Enscheff]

Mazara is a guy I identified as an interesting non-tender candidate when MLBTR published their list. He’s a low end Markakis replacement that should be cheap, though his defense isn’t great.

I suspect teams will wait to add offense until the DH situation is resolved. No idea why it’s taking this long to make a decision one way or the other when roster building is affected so much by this rule.

[clvclv]

Interesting that you should mention Pham. They would probably have to do due diligence on him relating to his injuries sustained when he was stabbed outside a strip club last month (Story here: https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/loc...abbed/2456296/), but he's a better player than Duvall and someone whose splits to this point indicate that he could be in LF every day. Of course, the thing one has to watch for with guys in their early-30s who are coming off a disappointing season is the slope of their likely decline. It could be a slow or fast descent.

Wonder what the Padres do with him.

Really do think teams that are already contenders are likely to move fast on secondary/platoon guys. Teams like the Mutts and Jays are going to be looking to make a splash as well as joining the party, but teams like the Dodgers/Braves/Padres don't have to go nuts. Outside of those two, who's really out there that's willing to give Springer or Realmuto 5 or more years? Of course Springer's a fit here, but is AA honestly going to throw 5 years at $20+ million at him with Waters in house if spending that money potentially keeps him from keeping Freeman if his extension "demands" are reasonable"??? The Dodgers aren't in play for Realmuto (and neither are the Padres, Braves, or Yankees), so aren't the Mutts only bidding against the Jays and Phillies for him?

Ozuna and Brantley are likely going to have to be patient until the DH question is resolved one way or the other, but teams that are already close can be aggressive and fill their holes without waiting - if AA is able to land reasonable platoon partners for Duvall and Riley like Mazara and Shaw, he can simply wait out the Bryant market until he finds out whether or not there's going to be a DH in the NL. If he can get those two guys for less than $10 million, it would seem that it would be much easier to convince the Liberty beancounters to push payroll an extra $5-10 million if that allows him to add Ozuna or Bryant as well. There's always a chance (however remote) that he can bump the prospect return to get the Cubs to eat an extra $5 million in a Bryant deal so that every deal signed this winter is only going to affect this year's payroll while staying away from a long-term commitment to Ozuna.

[50PoundHead]

I probably should have been a bit more clear. Is Pham--if available--going to be more or less expensive than Duvall/Platoon Partner? If less expensive, why bother with Duvall and another guy. Pham's splits show he can be an everyday player.

[ixiXSolidXixi]

I probably should have been a bit more clear. Is Pham--if available--going to be more or less expensive than Duvall/Platoon Partner? If less expensive, why bother with Duvall and another guy. Pham's splits show he can be an everyday player.

Yes but Padres are contenders and probably are not going to sell low.

[50PoundHead]

Yes but Padres are contenders and probably are not going to sell low.

I am talking about Pham if he is non-tendered. I wasn't suggesting trading for him.

[clvclv]

I probably should have been a bit more clear. Is Pham--if available--going to be more or less expensive than Duvall/Platoon Partner? If less expensive, why bother with Duvall and another guy. Pham's splits show he can be an everyday player.

Ideally for me you go get ANYBODY that's an everyday guy whether that's Brantley, Rosario, or Pham (if the last two are non-tendered) and figure everything else out later.

The fact that it's November 30th and there's still no decision about the DH isn't just screwing Ozuna, Cruz, and Encarnacion anymore - teams' choices about who to non-tender are going to be harder to make as well. For *hits and giggles, let's assume there will be a DH, but AA can only afford to spend on one big bat though he does have enough money available to add marginally in other places if he doesn't chase the top of the market - say that's $25 million total to spend. Wouldn't the ideal way to spread that out be to sign Brantley to play LF everyday ($15 million), somebody like Mazara to platoon with Duvall at DH ($5 million), and Shaw to platoon with Riley ($5 million)? Then AA could non-tender Camargo, Jackson, and Dayton and give their money to Melancon or Greene.

Without a DH decision, it's certainly reasonable to wonder if we're not better off cutting Duvall loose and spending a little more (if need be) to replace him with someone who can play everyday to keep as much money available as possible in case there is a DH. The slow market this winter isn't going to have anything to do with players, agents, or GMs for the first time ever - NOBODY KNOWS how to begin constructing their teams because the idiot in the Commissioner's office can't get his thumb out of his *ss.

[Southcack77]

The Braves need a right handed middle of the order guy and a lefty who can hit fifth or so to legitimately match up offensively with the Dodgers.

[clvclv]

The Braves need a right handed middle of the order guy and a lefty who can hit fifth or so to legitimately match up offensively with the Dodgers.

Duvall and Riley can be that guy against lefties - *ell, you can make a pretty convincing argument that Ozzie ought to be hitting in the middle of the lineup against them. Snitker has shown he can learn new tricks when he's forced to (2020 rotation) - now let's see if he can learn to fill out a lineup card with different players in different spots when matchups call for it. Brantley could hit anywhere from second to sixth depending on the matchup, and Shaw would fit just fine in the 5 hole against RHPs.

Besides, we've already got a right-handed middle of the order guy - he's currently leading off.

[Heyward]

Cubs planning to tender Kris Bryant, what would yall trade for him? Given we dont know how long the season is gonna be, Bryse Wilson/Ender/filler is probably not getting it done, but would certainly be nice if MLB would say whether there's a DH or not. I'm sure AA has a slew of options ready once he's told if there's a DH or not.

[Enscheff]

The Braves were tied at #1 (with the Dodgers and Mets) in all MLB last year vs RHP with a wRC+ of 126.

The Braves were almost exactly average vs LHP ranking #15 with a wRC+ of 101.

That production vs LHP came with Ozuna and all the guys you mentioned as potentially being "that guy" already in the lineup. The Braves need help vs LHP, and that's why the JD and Ozuna bat was brought in the last 2 seasons. That's also why that bat needs to be brought in this season as well.

[Enscheff]

Cubs planning to tender Kris Bryant, what would yall trade for him? Given we dont know how long the season is gonna be, Bryse Wilson/Ender/filler is probably not getting it done, but would certainly be nice if MLB would say whether there's a DH or not. I'm sure AA has a slew of options ready once he's told if there's a DH or not.

Bryant only holds appeal to me if there is no DH and the impact RHH bat has to play 3B or LF. In that scenario I'd much prefer Turner for 1-2 years. I might also prefer Ozuna for 3 years with the assumption he is the DH in 2022.

Bryant has very little trade value, and I doubt the Cubs will be interested in taking Ender's money back (their motivation is to unload money). However, if they do, the prospect package will obviously increase a bit.

I suspect just Wilson or a similar post-hype FV 50 arm is plenty to get Bryant, and if it isn't I hope AA understands KB isn't worth more. I would be hesitant to give them Riley for Bryant, and certainly not an arm like Touki or Wright. Someone like Wilson, Newk, Camargo...low end MLB talent with several years of control is about what KB is worth now.