Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[thewupk]

You can call me old fashioned all you want, and talk about three true outcomes all you want.

But plunking a .200 BA down in the middle of the lineup and expecting that to go well when the chips are down is unwise, I think.

Gallo would be a fine replacement for Duvall who hit 237 in 2020.

[50PoundHead]

The winter meetings begin Monday....the past few years going in, I have been super excited expecting a major move from the Braves. However, we have been deeply disappointed with no moves (not complaining, it all worked out)...this year, I am expecting more of the same. AA will appear to stand pat, not making any moves, but possibly laying the ground work for a deal down the line this offseason.

Thoughts?

Do the Braves have a roster spot open so they can take Maitan in the Rule 5 draft?

[thewupk]

Do the Braves have a roster spot open so they can take Maitan in the Rule 5 draft?

Let's not bring back any of Coppys mistakes this year.

[clvclv]

Gallo would be a fine replacement for Duvall who hit 237 in 2020.

Not sure how that could be true - the fact that Gallo would cost at least SOME level of prospect capital makes him quite a bit less attractive even if you're not a Duvall believer IMO.

I'm certainly not crazy enough to say Gallo couldn't be helpful to some degree, but exactly what would he provide to justify trading an arm for him if he and Duvall make the same amount of money (as projected)? We're not likely talking a "throway arm" like what it might've cost to get Rosario.

[Southcack77]

Gallo would be a fine replacement for Duvall who hit 237 in 2020.

.277 with the platoon advantage.

I don't think you want to compare their 2020s anyway.

[PawPawMaxwell]

I think thewupk was being a tad sarcastic once again.

[Southcack77]

I think thewupk was being a tad sarcastic once again.

A pretty decent bet.

[thewupk]

Re: Gallo

He was brought up as someone with depressed value (his 2020 was rough) that AA might target. AA has done this the previous two years with JD and Ozuna. Both had some issues that caused the Braves to get them on reasonable deals.

The Braves need to bring in two bats IMO. I would certainly take Gallo as the lessor bats that needs to be brought in. You could say he is Duvall's or Neck's replacement. Doesn't really matter. The Braves will need bodies out there. Gallo being brought in to replace Ozuna and be the main bat addition would not be good.

Duvall vs Gallo. Their projected arbitration salaries are similar. CLV, you're right that overall Gallo would cost more due to the prospect capital needed to land him. However you have to account for the fact that Duvall would need a platoon partner to be useful anyways in the everyday lineup. Gallo doesn't have a platoon weakness.

[50PoundHead]

I think thewupk was being a tad sarcastic once again.

I'll say. I know his negative reaction to my suggestion that we pick up Maitan in the Rule 5 was totally in jest.

[clvclv]

Re: Gallo

He was brought up as someone with depressed value (his 2020 was rough) that AA might target. AA has done this the previous two years with JD and Ozuna. Both had some issues that caused the Braves to get them on reasonable deals.

The Braves need to bring in two bats IMO. I would certainly take Gallo as the lessor bats that needs to be brought in. You could say he is Duvall's or Neck's replacement. Doesn't really matter. The Braves will need bodies out there. Gallo being brought in to replace Ozuna and be the main bat addition would not be good.

Duvall vs Gallo. Their projected arbitration salaries are similar. CLV, you're right that overall Gallo would cost more due to the prospect capital needed to land him. However you have to account for the fact that Duvall would need a platoon partner to be useful anyways in the everyday lineup. Gallo doesn't have a platoon weakness.

True - just not sure I'd give up what it would take to get Gallo when you could've just spent ~ $5 million to add a platoon-mate for Duvall and held onto the arms to throw in and sweeten the pot if a legitimate upgrade happened to present itself. Post-hype arms like Newk/Touki/Wilson don't hold a ton of value, but adding one of them probably pushes a number of potential deals over the finish line. Might as well keep the depth if you're not getting a longer term and more obvious upgrade.

I've always been the one with a lack of patience who wants to put SPs with nasty stuff in the pen early, but am finally starting to soften a bit in that regard. Morton's a perfect example of why you give those guys lots of opportunities to prove that they're not going to be late bloomers.

[Russ2dollas]

Kiley McDaniel may or may not know anything.

His projections have Ozuna at 3/60 and Springer at 4/108. If those are the numbers, I'd really rather have Springer. We would likely put Springer in a corner, where he'd be plus. I think he'll hit. When the DH eventually comes you can have Waters on the team. If you had 4 OF (3 OF and one DH each game) of Waters, Pache, Acuna, Springer....that would be amazing.

Next year you could even keep Pache down if he's not hitting and have Acuna and Springer as CF options. if there is no DH you could put one of them at CF and find a cheap platoon for LF. Assuming we have 30-40 million left, which is a huge assumption.

I love Ozuna. But I'm really worried how his athletic ability has declined. I'm not sure he's going to age well on a 3 year deal. I'd rather have Springer at 35 than Ozuna at 33.

[chop2chip]

Springer is a tremendous fit for this team, but teams with bigger wallets, greater needs, and stronger motivations appear to be after him.

This doesn’t seem like an AA move, but perhaps this where he shoots his shot.

[Russ2dollas]

Springer is a tremendous fit for this team, but teams with bigger wallets, greater needs, and stronger motivations appear to be after him.

This doesn’t seem like an AA move, but perhaps this where he shoots his shot.

I agree. I don't think the number will be that low. Nor do I think AA wants to sign a multiyear deal for a 30 y/o with waters as an option.

More of a thought exercise. I would rather pay Springer 4/108 than ozuna 3/60.

[Heyward]

I agree. I don't think the number will be that low. Nor do I think AA wants to sign a multiyear deal for a 30 y/o with waters as an option.

More of a thought exercise. I would rather pay Springer 4/108 than ozuna 3/60.

If we have the DH, i'm fine with Ozuna for 3/60.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Kiley McDaniel may or may not know anything.

His projections have Ozuna at 3/60 and Springer at 4/108. If those are the numbers, I'd really rather have Springer. We would likely put Springer in a corner, where he'd be plus. I think he'll hit. When the DH eventually comes you can have Waters on the team. If you had 4 OF (3 OF and one DH each game) of Waters, Pache, Acuna, Springer....that would be amazing.

Next year you could even keep Pache down if he's not hitting and have Acuna and Springer as CF options. if there is no DH you could put one of them at CF and find a cheap platoon for LF. Assuming we have 30-40 million left, which is a huge assumption.

I love Ozuna. But I'm really worried how his athletic ability has declined. I'm not sure he's going to age well on a 3 year deal. I'd rather have Springer at 35 than Ozuna at 33.

Springer is a tremendous asset but several problems get in the way. Enders money, Will Smiths money, Freddie extension, and MAYBE more importantly how do you pay/extend Soroka and Fried?

[nsacpi]

Gallo put up a .401 wOBA in 2019.

2020 stats all suffer from small sample issues to some extent. Plus different players processed playing in the middle of a pandemic differently. I would give 2019 stats more weight for virtually all players in making 2021 projections.

[nsacpi]

I'll say. I know his negative reaction to my suggestion that we pick up Maitan in the Rule 5 was totally in jest.

i could tell too

[clvclv]

Gallo put up a .401 wOBA in 2019.

2020 stats all suffer from small sample issues to some extent. Plus different players processed playing in the middle of a pandemic differently. I would give 2019 stats more weight for virtually all players in making 2021 projections.

So small sample size doesn't apply to 2019 Gallo? He only played in 13 more games (71 more PAs) in 2019 than in 2020, and that 70 game sample is the hottest offensive stretch of his professional career (much like the first month of Duvall's 2020). If you treat Gallo's 2019-2020 as a full season, it looks exactly like Duvall's 2020 - smoking hot first half followed by an ice cold second half.

Again, not arguing that he wouldn't contribute at least something - just not sure what you'd give up for someone who has as many legitimate questions about him as Gallo does when you could just write a check for Duvall/Pederson/Rosario/Mazara.

[nsacpi]

So small sample size doesn't apply to 2019 Gallo? He only played in 13 more games (71 more PAs) in 2019 than in 2020, and that 70 game sample is the hottest offensive stretch of his professional career (much like the first month of Duvall's 2020). If you treat Gallo's 2019-2020 as a full season, it looks exactly like Duvall's 2020 - smoking hot first half followed by an ice cold second half.

Again, not arguing that he wouldn't contribute at least something - just not sure what you'd give up for someone who has as many legitimate questions about him as Gallo does when you could just write a check for Duvall/Pederson/Rosario/Mazara.

I did look at that. Two points:

1) I would weight an equal sized 2019 sample more for reasons alluded

2) 41 and 40 home runs in 2017 and 2018, the last two seasons he played something close to a full season...you don't do that with food stamps

He'll be 27 next season. His prime. He's got some old player skills (walks a lot) and probably won't age well. But we're not talking about signing him into his 30s.

wOBA by year:

2017 .364
2018 .343
2019 .401
2020 .297

which one does not belong? i'm happy to get 2017-2018 Joey Gallo

[50PoundHead]

Next to Boone's Farm, I prefer: