Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[NYCBrave]

DJL seems like as good a candidate as any to be left without a chair once the FA music stops because he misread his market and set too high an asking price. It could happen to Ozuna as well.

If he's sitting there without a deal in March, and can be had for something like $15M for a single season, that's the exact type of move I hope AA would make even if it dislodges Riley from 3B.

If you look at the remaining top free agents, more than one are going to be left without a chair. There simply not enough suitors in this market where teams don't have the money to spend. Which is why I feel like each passing day we get closer to getting Ozuna at a very reasonable price, and each passing day the Smyly deal looks more and more like a big time overpay.

[clvclv]

If you look at the remaining top free agents, more than one are going to be left without a chair. There simply not enough suitors in this market where teams don't have the money to spend. Which is why I feel like each passing day we get closer to getting Ozuna at a very reasonable price, and each passing day the Smyly deal looks more and more like a big time overpay.

While I get the sentiment, the more difficult I think it becomes to call it "big-time" - regardless of how things shake out - when you really think about it. It really becomes a situational thing depending on the team and player.

As a general rule, teams ALWAYS overpay for pitching. If we break this winter's group of available free-agent SPs down by tiers, you'd probably have had...


Tier 1. - Bauer

Tier 2. - Morton, Stroman, Odorizzi, Gausman, Tanaka, Paxton

Tier 3 - Minor, Smyly, Ray, Happ, Hamels, Samardzija, Richards, Quintana, Wainright, Archer, Walker


We can fuss over a couple of names (on or off that list) belonging and where I listed them there, but that's not particularly important. The point is that Tier 1 guys are the "break the bank/Ace" group - the guys that will make big-time money. The next tier are the guys that fit solidly in the top half of just about any team's rotation - these guys are likely going to get something in the $14-$18 million AAV range. Then you've got the Tier 3 guys who are typically your solid MOR arms that may have stretches of time where they pitched like #2-#3s - these guys will probably fall in the $8-$12 million AAV range.

If you're asking these guys to set the market and sign early, you're going to have to pay a premium. If you want these guys to sign shorter deals, you're going to have to pay a premium. Stroman and Gausman were "overpays" in this case, but they signed early and took one year deals. Minor was an likely an overpay since he got two years - was there really a market for him on more than a one year deal?

I think you kinda have to grade AA's SP signings this winter as a whole rather than separately. This team is too close to winning it all to be allowed to have what happened to the 2020 rotation happen again - he's much better off spending a little extra money and building an incredibly deep rotation rather than get put in a situation where he has to overpay for guys like Milone just to have a couple of back-end SPs at the deadline IMO. He arguably got a "deal" on Morton since it was probably go back to Tampa, sign with Atlanta, or bust for him. He probably paid Smyly a little more than the tier of guys he fits with will get, but he got him early and for one year. DMGM had to give Minor an extra year to get him to sign early. Which is the better deal? Who knows? Atlanta was already in a situation where Julio was making in that $8-$12 million range for a couple years when he wasn't good enough to pitch in the rotation in the postseason during AA's tenure. Maybe his main goal was not to have someone on the books like that - someone that you have to take a lot of guff from the fanbase because they think their salary is the reason they should be starting a playoff game. Hindsight's always 20/20 and lots of fans would make the argument that you wouldn't have to have traded for Milone if you had picked up Julio's option last year, but was that really the case? Julio was plenty awful last season, and turned out to be an overpay on a 1 year/$9 million deal. Would things have been any better if he'd have been in Atlanta with the DH in the NL (making $12 million)? Probably not.

The Smyly deal is probably a slight overpay - but probably only by a couple million dollars, and getting it done early accomplished a couple important things. 1.) It settles how much money he has left to spend on offense, and (probably more importantly) 2.) it keeps him from potentially having to overpay in years if the other guys in that MOR tier start getting 2-3 year deals in that $8-$10 million range.

At the end of the day overpaying a little to get that off AA's plate was probably worth it, and if Soroka comes back healthy and Wright and Wilson continue to improve he might even be in a position to get a couple prospects for Smyly come deadline time if he's pitching well and is healthy. That might not be the case if he was on a 2-3 year deal and he wasn't a pure rental. Teams might prefer paying a little extra for him than being stuck with Minor's salary for an extra year.

[NYCBrave]

While I get the sentiment, the more difficult I think it becomes to call it "big-time" - regardless of how things shake out - when you really think about it. It really becomes a situational thing depending on the team and player.

As a general rule, teams ALWAYS overpay for pitching. If we break this winter's group of available free-agent SPs down by tiers, you'd probably have had...


Tier 1. - Bauer

Tier 2. - Morton, Stroman, Odorizzi, Gausman, Tanaka, Paxton

Tier 3 - Minor, Smyly, Ray, Happ, Hamels, Samardzija, Richards, Quintana, Wainright, Archer, Walker


We can fuss over a couple of names (on or off that list) belonging and where I listed them there, but that's not particularly important. The point is that Tier 1 guys are the "break the bank/Ace" group - the guys that will make big-time money. The next tier are the guys that fit solidly in the top half of just about any team's rotation - these guys are likely going to get something in the $14-$18 million AAV range. Then you've got the Tier 3 guys who are typically your solid MOR arms that may have stretches of time where they pitched like #2-#3s - these guys will probably fall in the $8-$12 million AAV range.

If you're asking these guys to set the market and sign early, you're going to have to pay a premium. If you want these guys to sign shorter deals, you're going to have to pay a premium. Stroman and Gausman were "overpays" in this case, but they signed early and took one year deals. Minor was an likely an overpay since he got two years - was there really a market for him on more than a one year deal?

I think you kinda have to grade AA's SP signings this winter as a whole rather than separately. This team is too close to winning it all to be allowed to have what happened to the 2020 rotation happen again - he's much better off spending a little extra money and building an incredibly deep rotation rather than get put in a situation where he has to overpay for guys like Milone just to have a couple of back-end SPs at the deadline IMO. He arguably got a "deal" on Morton since it was probably go back to Tampa, sign with Atlanta, or bust for him. He probably paid Smyly a little more than the tier of guys he fits with will get, but he got him early and for one year. DMGM had to give Minor an extra year to get him to sign early. Which is the better deal? Who knows? Atlanta was already in a situation where Julio was making in that $8-$12 million range for a couple years when he wasn't good enough to pitch in the rotation in the postseason during AA's tenure. Maybe his main goal was not to have someone on the books like that - someone that you have to take a lot of guff from the fanbase because they think their salary is the reason they should be starting a playoff game. Hindsight's always 20/20 and lots of fans would make the argument that you wouldn't have to have traded for Milone if you had picked up Julio's option last year, but was that really the case? Julio was plenty awful last season, and turned out to be an overpay on a 1 year/$9 million deal. Would things have been any better if he'd have been in Atlanta with the DH in the NL (making $12 million)? Probably not.

The Smyly deal is probably a slight overpay - but probably only by a couple million dollars, and getting it done early accomplished a couple important things. 1.) It settles how much money he has left to spend on offense, and (probably more importantly) 2.) it keeps him from potentially having to overpay in years if the other guys in that MOR tier start getting 2-3 year deals in that $8-$10 million range.

At the end of the day overpaying a little to get that off AA's plate was probably worth it, and if Soroka comes back healthy and Wright and Wilson continue to improve he might even be in a position to get a couple prospects for Smyly come deadline time if he's pitching well and is healthy. That might not be the case if he was on a 2-3 year deal and he wasn't a pure rental. Teams might prefer paying a little extra for him than being stuck with Minor's salary for an extra year.

Yeah I mean you're right. It seems pretty clear that Smyly was the guy AA really wanted, and did what it took to make sure he didn't miss out. Could he have saved a few million by waiting a couple of months? Maybe. But I'm sure he wanted to make sure he locked him up, and like you said, set the budget for the rest of the off season.

[clvclv]

Yeah I mean you're right. It seems pretty clear that Smyly was the guy AA really wanted, and did what it took to make sure he didn't miss out. Could he have saved a few million by waiting a couple of months? Maybe. But I'm sure he wanted to make sure he locked him up, and like you said, set the budget for the rest of the off season.

Right - I don't think anyone will wind up disagreeing that it was a bit of an overpay unless Smyly delivers a full healthy season with numbers that look like what he put up in last year's crazy season. That said, he already has a good idea of the dollars it's going to end up costing to land whichever one(s) of the Ozuna/Cruz/Bryant/Brantley/Rosario/Pederson/Duvall crowd he winds up going after. Is 1 year/$11 million for Smyly better than 2 years/$18 million for Minor (or any of the other guys in that tier)? Probably since the hope is that Wright, Wilson, or both are better Pitchers than they are by the end of 2021. The problem DMGM has created for himself is that if the big group of fast-moving college arms they've drafted in the last few years keeps moving fast Minor's going to be in the way - potentially before next season starts. The extra couple million Smyly will get this year avoids that, and I feel relatively confident that those dollars won't stand in the way of AA getting whichever bat he decides fits best.

I wouldn't be surprised to hear that AA put that 1 year/$9 million offer out there for any/all of that Tier 3 group, and then just sat back and waited to hear from anyone willing to start negotiations at that number - Smyly might simply have turned out to be the first one that said "if you'll bump that a little, I'll take the one year deal".

[UNCBlue012]

As always, take it with a grain of salt but I have a friend who does some work in the industry and he told me this: he hasn’t heard that the Braves are “truly” tied to any major free agents on the market, though he admitted this year has been so different within the general communications spectrum that it’s not surprising but doesn’t think AA is shopping big names. He said AA HAS been active in the relief area and spoken with a couple of arms. He also has heard AA connected to some of the smaller names on a one-year deal (JBJ, Rosario, Pederson) and with some of the top-tier utility players (Kike/Villar/Gordon).

The moral is that AA is working to actively improve the club but there's a good chance it's not via a big-time signing and more through a platoon. Much of this is probably to Enscheff's delight.

[Enscheff]

Not really delighted at all.

I want to see AA shopping in the Cruz/Ozuna/Turner isle for the major addition with guys in the Rosario/Pederson isle as secondary additions.

If a platoon LHH for the OF is the major offense added I think that’s a disappointment.

[UNCBlue012]

Not really delighted at all.

I want to see AA shopping in the Cruz/Ozuna/Turner isle for the major addition with guys in the Rosario/Pederson isle as secondary additions.

If a platoon LHH for the OF is the major offense added I think that’s a disappointment.

He did mention that communication has most affected the trade market (as we've all discussed) and that there are very few leaks. He said the Lindor deal was super surprising to him and some in the industry. Not because the Mets weren't serious but because it wasn't spoken about. So he doesn't have insight there.

[Russ2dollas]

athletic says Turner is looking for a 3-4 year deal. WOW.

I do wonder what AA thinks about Waters. Is he worried about blocking him with a multiyear LF option?

I'm still surprised there haven't been more cost cutting trades. maybe because nobody is willing to take on money outside of the mets and the padres.

[clvclv]

Not really delighted at all.

I want to see AA shopping in the Cruz/Ozuna/Turner isle for the major addition with guys in the Rosario/Pederson isle as secondary additions.

If a platoon LHH for the OF is the major offense added I think that’s a disappointment.

I'd think most everyone would be similarly disappointed, but I am happy to hear that AA's poking around for another pen arm as well as on the top-tier utility guys.

While seemingly doubtful, maybe "a couple of arms" means he's poking around for someone potentially with more upside than we've previously considered. How nice would Kirby Yates look at the back-end if he's healthy? Or maybe two guys that should be less expensive like Archie Bradley AND Melancon. All of a sudden the pen becomes absolutely lights out again.

It certainly isn't sexy, but if he can get Villar as a utility guy on a reasonable deal he can finally cut Camargo loose and the bench will be A LOT stronger. Add Villar and Brad Miller and you've got tons of flexibility. At that point you could use Riley at 3B and in LF and sign one of Pederson or Rosario. Lots of options/combinations if that was the way he chooses to go - with NO real weak spots and a potentially dominant rotation and pen.

One of the things we may be missing in all this is that they think Waters is closer to being ready to step in than we expect. Impossible to know since they locked down all info at Gwinnett last summer, but maybe he showed them enough to make them think he can contribute this season.

Not really the winter we were all hoping for by any stretch, but if he could add that many pieces with the resources he has left it definitely shouldn't be looked at as a "failure" IMO.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Pache questions, Waters unproven at the ML level and Riley still not established. Leaves a lot of questions and would seem to be very unlikely without the DH. I feel that Soroka returning makes the rotation very promising, starting 8 could be a potential bomb with the right additions, bench and pen still not filled. Feb 27 a day to look forward to.

[Super]

athletic says Turner is looking for a 3-4 year deal. WOW.

I do wonder what AA thinks about Waters. Is he worried about blocking him with a multiyear LF option?

I'm still surprised there haven't been more cost cutting trades. maybe because nobody is willing to take on money outside of the mets and the padres.

i really doubt he's overly worried about blocking Waters. that stuff tends to work itself out.
i think he's just weary about spending $ on multi-year deals, especially before DH is established.

[Tapate50]

Turner looking for a pillow deal doesn't surprise me I think he gave LA a hometown discount last go round, but more power to him.

JBJ is a interesting name... could be a knockout CF for a short term deal. OF defense would be LEGIT with him and Ronnie. I mentioned some of the Red Sox and former Sawx this season.

I'd still look at adding JD Martinez for just taking on his salary to some extent if the DH were implemented. Its likely a deal we could stomach for the next few seasons if the RS ate some legit money. He is probably as much of an impact hitter as is available on the market.

[UNCBlue012]

It's been widely mentioned over the last two days but Ken Rosenthal said today that he expects there to be a DH in the NL in 2021.

[UNCBlue012]

[MadduxFanII]

"June 25, 2024: Major League Baseball commissioner George W. Bush announced today that the league was suspending Atlanta Braves General Manager Alex Anthopolous for life as a result of rule violations related to the club's signing of shortstop Ambioris Taveras from the Dominican Republican in 2021."

[UNCBlue012]

#HotStove update: Marcell Ozuna’s market has begun to take shape in recent days, with source saying both AL and NL teams are involved despite uncertainty over DH rule across #MLB. Some clubs are comfortable with him as an everyday left fielder.

[Russ2dollas]

It's been widely mentioned over the last two days but Ken Rosenthal said today that he expects there to be a DH in the NL in 2021.

Great for baseball. Means we need two bats IMO. Do we have the money for two bats?

[UNCBlue012]

Heyman: Julio Teheran will throw for teams at a showcase in Miami Tuesday. Teheran, only 29, tied Warren Spahn for most consecutive Opening Day starts by a Braves pitcher at 6 in 2019. Has career 3.81 ERA.

[UNCBlue012]

Great for baseball. Means we need two bats IMO. Do we have the money for two bats?

Money and prospects, yes. :)

[clvclv]

Great for baseball. Means we need two bats IMO. Do we have the money for two bats?

Sure.

Waters and Duvall.