Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[Carp]

Turner will earn 17m per year for 2 years with a 14m option for year 3. An 8m signing bonus is included.

Dodgers now stand at the 62.5% tax threshold. They need to dump about 5m in payroll to get under the 62.% to the lower level.

Wonder if AA was working on something with Dodgers in the event they signed Turner and took them over the threshold? Chris Taylor would be a great fit on this team.

[JxnMissFan]

Right now, i'd put it Dodgers/gap/Padres/small gap/Braves/Mets.

Mets are improved but missing on Bauer really hurt them.

I don’t understand the all love the Mets are getting. Are Lindor, Carrasco and McCann really going to move a sub .500 team last year to a 90 something win team this year?

[Heyward]

I don’t understand the all love the Mets are getting. Are Lindor, Carrasco and McCann really going to move a sub .500 team last year to a 90 something win team this year?

Yeah, i dont really get all this Mets hype either. Maybe if they add Kris Bryant too but as it stands now, i'm not sure they're THAT much improved.

[50PoundHead]

Are shin-sho choo or Dietrich decent options?

I see them as "bat only" guys and I think the Braves are looking for someone with greater positional flexibility. If they are simply looking for a bench bat, these guys might fit in, but so might Sandoval.

[thewupk]

I don’t understand the all love the Mets are getting. Are Lindor, Carrasco and McCann really going to move a sub .500 team last year to a 90 something win team this year?

Look at their lineup. McCann is their worst player but everyone else projects to be an above average or better hitter.

And adding Carrasco and Stroman to their rotation is really solid. They have a good team.

That being said. Zips and Steamer, thus the Fangraphs' projections, don't like Soroka and Anderson at all. Both have them as low to mid 4 FIP pitchers. The homer in my expects better production than that from them.

[TheBravos]

I don’t understand the all love the Mets are getting. Are Lindor, Carrasco and McCann really going to move a sub .500 team last year to a 90 something win team this year?

Ditto

[Southcack77]

If the 3b was acquired via trade, I would almost guarantee Riley would be involved in the trade.

Depends on who was acquired, but I doubt that it's as simple as 3b for 3b.

Riley is more valuable than a half measure.

[clvclv]

Right now, i'd put it Dodgers/gap/Padres/small gap/Braves/Mets.

Mets are improved but missing on Bauer really hurt them.

Please explain this. If "missing on Bauer really hurt them" is a thing, then missing on him really hurt the Braves too, no?

They still have the best SP in the game at the top of their rotation, Carrasco, Stroman, and Syndergaard (at some point) - it's not like they have the Braves' 2020 rotation.

They aren't just "improved", they're substantially improved.

[Southcack77]

Please explain this. If "missing on Bauer really hurt them" is a thing, then missing on him really hurt the Braves too, no?

They still have the best SP in the game at the top of their rotation, Carrasco, Stroman, and Syndergaard (at some point) - it's not like they have the Braves' 2020 rotation.

They aren't just "improved", they're substantially improved.

I don't think Carrasco, Stroman, Syndegard is necessarily that imposing.

[clvclv]

Wonder if AA was working on something with Dodgers in the event they signed Turner and took them over the threshold? Chris Taylor would be a great fit on this team.

Just can't see them parting with Taylor after losing Pederson AND Kike. He would be a great fit, no doubt, but do you really want to give them yet ANOTHER good prospect for one year of Taylor as a utility guy (if there's no DH)?

I think the discussion about them and the luxury tax is really overblown. Paying a little bit of extra money to have Taylor and all the versatility he provides is a small price to pay when you're trying to become the first team to repeat in 20 years isn't likely something ownership is going to nitpick about with Friedman IMO. Probably one of those situations where they'd LIKE to be under it, but if it was that big a deal they'd never have approved the Bauer and Turner signings to begin with.

[Heyward]

Please explain this. If "missing on Bauer really hurt them" is a thing, then missing on him really hurt the Braves too, no?

They still have the best SP in the game at the top of their rotation, Carrasco, Stroman, and Syndergaard (at some point) - it's not like they have the Braves' 2020 rotation.

They aren't just "improved", they're substantially improved.

Not sure that's, really THAT imposing and Syndeergaard is coming off TJ so who knows how good he'll be right away. They're better, obviously, never denied that lol.

[clvclv]

I don't think Carrasco, Stroman, Syndegard is necessarily that imposing.

They're certainly not pushovers. Every other fanbase is saying "I don't think Fried, Soroka, Anderson is necessarily that imposing" too. If we're not wearing our Braves-colored glasses, it's reasonable to say that adding two older SPs with injury histories didn't exactly upgrade the Braves' rotation.

If healthy, the Mutts have a strong rotation just like the Braves do. Is it bulletproof? Of course not, but most teams don't have an offense like Atlanta's - the Mutts do now. Projection systems are always questionable, but the Mutts have done enough to put themselves in the top 4 in the NL - how many games a computer tells me they'll win is irrelevant. They have the pieces in place to match up with anybody and see how things actually play out on the field.

[Enscheff]

The Mets are pretty clearly a little better than the Braves for the next season, or couple of seasons. After that they are going to be in for some rough times, while AA has positioned the Braves to be a 90+ win team for the next 4-5 years.

The unsustainable offense the Braves posted last year has quite a few Braves fans thinking the offense is better than it probably will be. Ozuna, TDA and Swanson are in for some significant regression. The boost from a full season of Albies will help offset some of that, but not if someone else gets injured. Nobody had an unlucky year for the Braves in 2020.

Even though the Mets are probably 1-2 wins better in terms of true talent, that margin is still well within the error bars of any single season. Hopefully AA has some moves up his sleeve that will allow the Braves to pass the Mets.

[msstate7]

The Mets are pretty clearly a little better than the Braves for the next season, or couple of seasons. After that they are going to be in for some rough times, while AA has positioned the Braves to be a 90+ win team for the next 4-5 years.

The unsustainable offense the Braves posted last year has quite a few Braves fans thinking the offense is better than it probably will be. Ozuna, TDA and Swanson are in for some significant regression. The boost from a full season of Albies will help offset some of that, but not if someone else gets injured. Nobody had an unlucky year for the Braves in 2020.

Even though the Mets are probably 1-2 wins better in terms of true talent, that margin is still well within the error bars of any single season. Hopefully AA has some moves up his sleeve that will allow the Braves to pass the Mets.

Maybe no one offensively was "unlucky", but losing hamels and soroka was pretty tough. The braves still were a game away from WS. Losing some offense could be offset by really gaining starting pitching

[Carp]

I don’t understand the all love the Mets are getting. Are Lindor, Carrasco and McCann really going to move a sub .500 team last year to a 90 something win team this year?

They're also a getting Stroman back after he didn't pitch at all last year. So they're adding 2 pitchers that should both be minimum 2-3 WAR pitchers in 2021 if healthy. They're adding Lindor who is potentially a 5-6 WAR player. And McCann is potentially a 2 -3 WAR catcher. That's quite a bit. And I think you can expect Alonso to have have a much better season in 2021.

You also have to realize they underperformed relative to team WAR in 2020.

[50PoundHead]

The Mets are pretty clearly a little better than the Braves for the next season, or couple of seasons. After that they are going to be in for some rough times, while AA has positioned the Braves to be a 90+ win team for the next 4-5 years.

The unsustainable offense the Braves posted last year has quite a few Braves fans thinking the offense is better than it probably will be. Ozuna, TDA and Swanson are in for some significant regression. The boost from a full season of Albies will help offset some of that, but not if someone else gets injured. Nobody had an unlucky year for the Braves in 2020.

Even though the Mets are probably 1-2 wins better in terms of true talent, that margin is still well within the error bars of any single season. Hopefully AA has some moves up his sleeve that will allow the Braves to pass the Mets.

My reservations about 2021 in a nutshell. We pummeled the ball last season and had really unexpected seasons from Duvall and d'Arnaud. Add the fact that while most everyone thought Ozuna would be solid, very few, if any, thought he would perform at the level he did. I think we are still a bat short and have a miserable looking bench. As it stands right now, the walk-up music for all the guys on the bench will be songs by Motley Crue.

[CyYoung31]

Yeah, I picked the Mets to win the division last year in a short season. They’re good, but they have to remain healthy. So do the Braves, for that matter. But the Braves have a little more ability to make trades if something goes awry. This race will probably come down to who can stay healthiest.

Not worried about the other teams in the division.

[Carp]

The Mets are pretty clearly a little better than the Braves for the next season, or couple of seasons. After that they are going to be in for some rough times, while AA has positioned the Braves to be a 90+ win team for the next 4-5 years.

The unsustainable offense the Braves posted last year has quite a few Braves fans thinking the offense is better than it probably will be. Ozuna, TDA and Swanson are in for some significant regression. The boost from a full season of Albies will help offset some of that, but not if someone else gets injured. Nobody had an unlucky year for the Braves in 2020.

Even though the Mets are probably 1-2 wins better in terms of true talent, that margin is still well within the error bars of any single season. Hopefully AA has some moves up his sleeve that will allow the Braves to pass the Mets.

I might argue Acuna was slightly unlucky with a BABIP over 30 points below his career average. And that's a little scary for opposing teams considering he was pacing for his best season offensively. He might have surpassed Freeman as MVP over a full season if his BABIP reverted to career averages.

[Tapate50]

Acuna had some nagging stuff last year that pretty obviously hampered him. Yeah, scary stuff if he gets healthy

[clvclv]

My reservations about 2021 in a nutshell. We pummeled the ball last season and had really unexpected seasons from Duvall and d'Arnaud. Add the fact that while most everyone thought Ozuna would be solid, very few, if any, thought he would perform at the level he did. I think we are still a bat short and have a miserable looking bench. As it stands right now, the walk-up music for all the guys on the bench will be songs by Motley Crue.

The expected regression makes it fair to wonder if AA isn't better off focusing on making a flurry of bench signings this week to really build some depth rather than trying to pull off a big trade. Assuming the money's there (referencing the $13 million or so DOB seems to be convinced as being available), how much better would we all feel about things if you suddenly added Gardner, Shaw, and Flowers to the bench and Kela to the pen - especially if the DH is mysteriously added prior to the start of the season as some still expect?

A potential big trade that's still being talked about this close to the beginning of camp will probably be something he can go back to after setting up the rest of the roster.