Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[NYCBrave]

Well, the Mets are certainly scary now...for at least 1 season. Them and the Padres are taking advantage of being the only teams willing to spend.

Now it's being reported the Mets would prefer to stay under the luxury tax. Not sure how true that is, but it was mentioned by a Mets beat writer. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me, figured the Mets would just blow through it. After this season, Thor, Stroman, Lindor, and Conforto are all free agents, but Cano's money is back on the books, so they will have money to play with.

[bravesfanMatt]

Now it's being reported the Mets would prefer to stay under the luxury tax. Not sure how true that is, but it was mentioned by a Mets beat writer. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me, figured the Mets would just blow through it. After this season, Thor, Stroman, Lindor, and Conforto are all free agents, but Cano's money is back on the books, so they will have money to play with.

And all those holes to fill.

[Super]

They'll probably re-sign Lindor.

that’s a huuuuge question mark.

[NYCBrave]

that’s a huuuuge question mark.

Especially because there will be plenty of big market suitors next year willing to spend money, once things rebound financially this year

[Enscheff]

The Mets and Padres are making huge win now moves, and their fans are justifiably excited. They won’t be able to sustain it. We have literally seen this story play out many times for many teams.

So be afraid of the Mets in 2021. They are going to be a great team, especially after they add another arm that nobody else is willing to pay.

[clvclv]

Still not sure why this is so scary to us. CC is at that golden age of pitching where he should start to decline. Lindor is one year rental that won’t move the needle enough. Great on the Muts for making a splash with names but I am far from worried about them at this point.

"CC is at that golden age of pitching where he should start to decline." You mean 3 plus years younger than Charlie Morton?

They didn't make this trade with Lindor as a rental - they'll pay what it takes to lock him up just like the Dodgers did Mookie.

[clvclv]

The Mets and Padres are making huge win now moves, and their fans are justifiably excited. They won’t be able to sustain it. We have literally seen this story play out many times for many teams.

So be afraid of the Mets in 2021. They are going to be a great team, especially after they add another arm that nobody else is willing to pay.

So they're roughly $20 million under the luxury tax threshold following the trade, right? If they're dead-set on improving their CF defense, there's little reason to think they can't turn their attention to JBJ (or even Pillar) instead of Springer, add another pen arm, and a wildcard guy for rotation depth for that much.

If they're able to do those things and the DH suddenly appears so Smith doesn't have to play defense in LF they're definitely scary.

[clvclv]

Now it's being reported the Mets would prefer to stay under the luxury tax. Not sure how true that is, but it was mentioned by a Mets beat writer. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me, figured the Mets would just blow through it. After this season, Thor, Stroman, Lindor, and Conforto are all free agents, but Cano's money is back on the books, so they will have money to play with.

If they don't blow luxury tax dollars this year they can just allocate them towards paying part of the last two years of his deal and either release Cano or give that money to anyone interested in taking him.

[bravesfanMatt]

"CC is at that golden age of pitching where he should start to decline." You mean 3 plus years younger than Charlie Morton?

They didn't make this trade with Lindor as a rental - they'll pay what it takes to lock him up just like the Dodgers did Mookie.

I hope they do lock up Lindor. Give him 300 million. And I have no idea what Morton has to do with Carlos. We have Morton one year. If he falls flat on his face then we lose a year and still have way more depth than the Mutts.

[Super]

I hope they do lock up Lindor. Give him 300 million. And I have no idea what Morton has to do with Carlos. We have Morton one year. If he falls flat on his face then we lose a year and still have way more depth than the Mutts.

Carrasco is only signed for 2 years, tho, at low dollars. so it's not really much of a risk at all, either.

[bravesfanMatt]

Carrasco is only signed for 2 years, tho, at low dollars. so it's not really much of a risk at all, either.

I wasn’t meaning financial risk. More of, is CC going to be as good as he has been. He is starting to hit that age where injury or decline could impact. Depth is a concern. I agree that they got better. I am happy for them. And as long as they have de-God they will be a good team. But does this put them over the top. Not so sure.

[NYCBrave]

"CC is at that golden age of pitching where he should start to decline." You mean 3 plus years younger than Charlie Morton?

They didn't make this trade with Lindor as a rental - they'll pay what it takes to lock him up just like the Dodgers did Mookie.

The Mookie signing was a complete rarity, let's be honest. It was also done during the uncertainty of the Covid era. Most players of Lindor's caliber wait until they hit free agency and take the offer from the highest bidder. That's surely what is encouraged by their agent and player's union as well.

[NYCBrave]

So they're roughly $20 million under the luxury tax threshold following the trade, right? If they're dead-set on improving their CF defense, there's little reason to think they can't turn their attention to JBJ (or even Pillar) instead of Springer, add another pen arm, and a wildcard guy for rotation depth for that much.

If they're able to do those things and the DH suddenly appears so Smith doesn't have to play defense in LF they're definitely scary.

I don't have the exact quote in front of me, but as it was stated, they are looking to stay 5-10 million below the threshold so they can spend at the deadline. So they might not spend 20 more this off season. Still seems strange to me they'd look to stay under, and who knows if that's true.

[MadduxFanII]

Lindor's not going to turn 27 until July of this year. If the Mets do re-sign him to some ridiculous contract I assume it'll come back to bite them in the end, but there's only so much satisfaction I can get out of the idea that the Mets will start regretting Francisco Lindor's contract in 2029, because I'll still have to watch Francisco Lindor play for the Mets for eight years before that point.

[clvclv]

I hope they do lock up Lindor. Give him 300 million. And I have no idea what Morton has to do with Carlos. We have Morton one year. If he falls flat on his face then we lose a year and still have way more depth than the Mutts.

There's no reason to expect Carrasco to decline substantially unless you expect Morton to decline even more - unless it's because he's a Met and Morton's a Brave. If one of those two is closer to falling off a cliff it's Morton.

[clvclv]

The Mookie signing was a complete rarity, let's be honest. It was also done during the uncertainty of the Covid era. Most players of Lindor's caliber wait until they hit free agency and take the offer from the highest bidder. That's surely what is encouraged by their agent and player's union as well.

There were already rumblings that Lindor was open to talking about an extension once he was traded - and that was before being dealt to the team with the richest owner. The Betts deal was a rarity mainly because guys in the last year of their deals seldom get dealt to the big market clubs that can actually afford to hand out market value extensions to keep players from exploring the market. I see no reason to expect Lindor to become a free-agent now that he's landed in the biggest market AND that ownership will be more than happy to pay market value to keep him there - if Cohen offers something in the 8+ year/$30 million AAV range before next winter there's no reason for Lindor to bother to look around on the market. Cohen won't let the Yankees outbid him once Lindor puts on a Mutts uniform, and with all the other SSs available it would be really out of character for the Dodgers to get into a bidding war for him - they'll just extend Seager or sign one of the other guys and save those resources to spend elsewhere.

I'm not saying those huge deals aren't crazy or that they're not going to come back to bite the 3-4 teams that can hand them out at the end, but both New York and LA clubs can afford them while no one else can - particularly now that they're learning not to grossly overspend for the 3rd and 4th bench guys and 6th and 7th pen arms just because fans know their names. As MadduxFanII mentions, Cohen will be quite happy to hear the *itching about Lindor's decline years after he finishes counting the money he made on him while he's in his prime.

[bravesfanMatt]

There's no reason to expect Carrasco to decline substantially unless you expect Morton to decline even more - unless it's because he's a Met and Morton's a Brave. If one of those two is closer to falling off a cliff it's Morton.

I am not going to be surprised if Morton fails just like what’s his name in 2020. But what does that have to do with Carlos. I just don’t think they are going to do enough to make a difference. Something will happen and the mutts will be the mutts again.

[NYCBrave]

There were already rumblings that Lindor was open to talking about an extension once he was traded - and that was before being dealt to the team with the richest owner. The Betts deal was a rarity mainly because guys in the last year of their deals seldom get dealt to the big market clubs that can actually afford to hand out market value extensions to keep players from exploring the market. I see no reason to expect Lindor to become a free-agent now that he's landed in the biggest market AND that ownership will be more than happy to pay market value to keep him there - if Cohen offers something in the 8+ year/$30 million AAV range before next winter there's no reason for Lindor to bother to look around on the market. Cohen won't let the Yankees outbid him once Lindor puts on a Mutts uniform, and with all the other SSs available it would be really out of character for the Dodgers to get into a bidding war for him - they'll just extend Seager or sign one of the other guys and save those resources to spend elsewhere.

I'm not saying those huge deals aren't crazy or that they're not going to come back to bite the 3-4 teams that can hand them out at the end, but both New York and LA clubs can afford them while no one else can - particularly now that they're learning not to grossly overspend for the 3rd and 4th bench guys and 6th and 7th pen arms just because fans know their names. As MadduxFanII mentions, Cohen will be quite happy to hear the *itching about Lindor's decline years after he finishes counting the money he made on him while he's in his prime.

It all depends. If he is offered 8 years 30 million, who's to say a team won't offer 8 years 40 million in free agency? He would never know unless he tested the water. All matters is what is important to him. He's not a Boras client so at least there is that going for the Mets. However, he wouldn't even consider the offer the Indians gave him for an extension, so he clearly cares most about money.

[Sheffield10]

Perfect move with only upside. Great job to the Mets.

[Carp]

There's no reason to expect Carrasco to decline substantially unless you expect Morton to decline even more - unless it's because he's a Met and Morton's a Brave. If one of those two is closer to falling off a cliff it's Morton.

I mean there's quite a bit of variance from Carrasco to Morton. Carassaco pitched like a borderline ace last year. I wouldn't expect that sort of repeat performance.