Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[clvclv]

If the DH becomes universal, Brantley will likely have a higher AAV than Pederson. Difference may be that Brantley will probably have a shorter contract in terms of years. Pederson is 28 and may go years over AAV, which would be a sticking point for the Braves in my estimation. I like the idea of a Pederson/Duvall platoon.

A Pederson/Duvall platoon would be great - not arguing that it wouldn't. The question is where does the money for that come from?

For the sake of this discussion using round numbers, 2021 commitments are around $82 million and an expectation for Opening day 2021 payroll is ~ $115-$120 million - leaving AA $30-$35 million to spend.

Duvall, Dansby, and Fried will get pretty significant raises which will eat up $8 million (?) or more. $27 million left.

Re-sign Melancon for $8 million. $19 million left.

Veteran SP for $8-$10 million. $9-$11 million left.

That doesn't leave very much to spend on a DH and platoon-mate for either Duvall or Riley (much less both). You'll also need to sign a utility IF (Camargo walks) and potentially another pen arm if you don't use Newk/Touki/Wilson/etc. out there. The DH definitely needs to be able to play passable defense in LF - at least until whenever Pache is added to the roster, and probably even after that.

The reason I like Brantley so much better than Pederson is that he DOESN'T need a platoon-mate. He can DH against lefties when Duvall is playing and take his place when he needs to sit. If you sign Pederson, he's strictly a part-time player no matter what - you're not going to let him DH against lefties so Duvall can play against them.

Unless AA goes cheap (which he hopefully can WITHOUT signing complete gambles), the money probably just isn't going to be there to have a strict platoon at either 3B or LF. Maybe the offers are incredibly low for free-agents this winter, but I can't imagine they're going to be low enough to provide the flexibility AA will need - contenders are still going to do what it takes to sign quality players rather than question marks. Maybe you get a hometown discount on a 1 year deal for Melancon, but he's not going to take $4 million. Maybe you get a solid SP like Leake on a 1 year deal since he already had a big payday, but he probably ain't taking $4 million either.

He COULD jump out there early to try to sign a DH/OF and platoon 3B or LF and hope to wait out Pitchers until the markets drop, but that puts him right back in the same spot he's been in all year - an unsettled rotation and a pen with even more question marks than in 2020 with no Melancon, Greene, or Jackson.

[PawPawMaxwell]

A Pederson/Duvall platoon would be great - not arguing that it wouldn't. The question is where does the money for that come from?

For the sake of this discussion using round numbers, 2021 commitments are around $82 million and an expectation for Opening day 2021 payroll is ~ $115-$120 million - leaving AA $30-$35 million to spend.

Duvall, Dansby, and Fried will get pretty significant raises which will eat up $8 million (?) or more. $27 million left.

Re-sign Melancon for $8 million. $19 million left.

Veteran SP for $8-$10 million. $9-$11 million left.

That doesn't leave very much to spend on a DH and platoon-mate for either Duvall or Riley (much less both). You'll also need to sign a utility IF (Camargo walks) and potentially another pen arm if you don't use Newk/Touki/Wilson/etc. out there. The DH definitely needs to be able to play passable defense in LF - at least until whenever Pache is added to the roster, and probably even after that.

The reason I like Brantley so much better than Pederson is that he DOESN'T need a platoon-mate. He can DH against lefties when Duvall is playing and take his place when he needs to sit. If you sign Pederson, he's strictly a part-time player no matter what - you're not going to let him DH against lefties so Duvall can play against them.

Unless AA goes cheap (which he hopefully can WITHOUT signing complete gambles), the money probably just isn't going to be there to have a strict platoon at either 3B or LF. Maybe the offers are incredibly low for free-agents this winter, but I can't imagine they're going to be low enough to provide the flexibility AA will need - contenders are still going to do what it takes to sign quality players rather than question marks. Maybe you get a hometown discount on a 1 year deal for Melancon, but he's not going to take $4 million. Maybe you get a solid SP like Leake on a 1 year deal since he already had a big payday, but he probably ain't taking $4 million either.

He COULD jump out there early to try to sign a DH/OF and platoon 3B or LF and hope to wait out Pitchers until the markets drop, but that puts him right back in the same spot he's been in all year - an unsettled rotation and a pen with even more question marks than in 2020 with no Melancon, Greene, or Jackson.

Is there any guarantee that Duvall is kept? Traded maybe? Why did AA trade for Smith and his money if intentions were to resign Melancon? Just how necessary is that veteran SP?

[Horsehide Harry]

It's hard to know how to project the offseason. The COVID shortened season with associated pro-rated payroll will still be trumpeted by ownership as huge, HUGE losses for 2020. That may or may not be true. But it doesn't matter since it will be a retarding issue for the offseason. The upcoming players/owners contract negotiations will also play a part. The owners will utilize COVID as best they can and the players will defend against that as one-off. The owners will have to be careful about appearances of collusion.

Then there is the outlook of specific teams. Will the Marlins take this as a sign that they are ready to spend money? The Giants? Will certain teams go full on rebuild mode like Arizona, cutting payroll to the bone while maximizing talent assets?

In a normal season, it's usually easy to extrapolate. I think this offseason is going to be a challenge.

[Russ2dollas]

We have a solid pen without melanin and Greene. 40 man is full of guys who could be good relievers.

I wouldn’t spend a dime on Greene or melancin. Look for a vet or two on the cheap.

I’d save all of my money for of, dh, impactful starter

[50PoundHead]

A Pederson/Duvall platoon would be great - not arguing that it wouldn't. The question is where does the money for that come from?

For the sake of this discussion using round numbers, 2021 commitments are around $82 million and an expectation for Opening day 2021 payroll is ~ $115-$120 million - leaving AA $30-$35 million to spend.

Duvall, Dansby, and Fried will get pretty significant raises which will eat up $8 million (?) or more. $27 million left.

Re-sign Melancon for $8 million. $19 million left.

Veteran SP for $8-$10 million. $9-$11 million left.

That doesn't leave very much to spend on a DH and platoon-mate for either Duvall or Riley (much less both). You'll also need to sign a utility IF (Camargo walks) and potentially another pen arm if you don't use Newk/Touki/Wilson/etc. out there. The DH definitely needs to be able to play passable defense in LF - at least until whenever Pache is added to the roster, and probably even after that.

The reason I like Brantley so much better than Pederson is that he DOESN'T need a platoon-mate. He can DH against lefties when Duvall is playing and take his place when he needs to sit. If you sign Pederson, he's strictly a part-time player no matter what - you're not going to let him DH against lefties so Duvall can play against them.

Unless AA goes cheap (which he hopefully can WITHOUT signing complete gambles), the money probably just isn't going to be there to have a strict platoon at either 3B or LF. Maybe the offers are incredibly low for free-agents this winter, but I can't imagine they're going to be low enough to provide the flexibility AA will need - contenders are still going to do what it takes to sign quality players rather than question marks. Maybe you get a hometown discount on a 1 year deal for Melancon, but he's not going to take $4 million. Maybe you get a solid SP like Leake on a 1 year deal since he already had a big payday, but he probably ain't taking $4 million either.

He COULD jump out there early to try to sign a DH/OF and platoon 3B or LF and hope to wait out Pitchers until the markets drop, but that puts him right back in the same spot he's been in all year - an unsettled rotation and a pen with even more question marks than in 2020 with no Melancon, Greene, or Jackson.

I guess it comes from the same place a proposed signing of Brantley would come from.

[jpx7]

Is there any guarantee that Duvall is kept? Traded maybe? Why did AA trade for Smith and his money if intentions were to resign Melancon? Just how necessary is that veteran SP?

Is there any rationale for not tendering Duvall a contract?

[Russ2dollas]

Is there any rationale for not tendering Duvall a contract?

Zero

I could make up a scenario where a trade makes sense but I can’t come up with a scenario where you let him walk.

Even if you are desperate to cut salary you do it elsewhere

[PawPawMaxwell]

Is there any rationale for not tendering Duvall a contract?

Only current rationale is an OF of entirely RH hitters. Acuna is a given. What about Pache? What about the probability of DH? How important is Ozuna becoming? Can Ender be moved? When will Waters demand a position? Dont forget Riley is not bad OFer?
Pache or Waters could certainly be trade bait. Even Riley. But the question who would get the best return? My money would be on Duvall at this time and I would certainly not be looking at a big return.

[Hudson2]

Ozuna or an equal hitter no doubt has to be brought in. I hope it’s Ozuna. That would be my first priority.

[MadduxFanII]

It might be worth exploring whether some team in desperate need of power might convince themselves that Duvall is the answer and overpay, but if you can't pull that off he's certainly earned a new contract and roster spot.

[Russ2dollas]

Ozuna or an equal hitter no doubt has to be brought in. I hope it’s Ozuna. That would be my first priority.

Love him. If there is not a Dh next year I hesitate.

I’m not sure many teams will want big money deals going into the work stoppage in two years.

I think he will go and we will look to strike gold three years in a row with another one year slugger deal.

[Hudson2]

Love him. If there is not a Dh next year I hesitate.

I’m not sure many teams will want big money deals going into the work stoppage in two years.

I think he will go and we will look to strike gold three years in a row with another one year slugger deal.

I think the DH stays

[Horsehide Harry]

I think the DH stays

I think the DH goes for the year and comes back as a concession to the players in the next agreement.

[clvclv]

I guess it comes from the same place a proposed signing of Brantley would come from.

That's the point - I could see one or the other, but probably not both.

The whole offseason probably hinges on whether AA believes Soroka will be ready early on, is convinced Wright is fixed for good, and whether he has the stomach for Wilson/Touki/Newk/Davidson covering the final rotation slot. If he does, there's no need to go get another veteran SP. Just not sure he'll be willing to do that since everyone's 2021 IPs will need to be limited - expecting Fried, Soroka, and Wright to be able to give you 180 innings following this crazy season is probably a recipe for disaster.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Im sure all GMs know if the DH is coming to the NL on a permanent basis with the new CBA. If so, would it be worth the risk of giving Ozuna a long term deal and gamble on 2021 with him in LF if the DH doesnt happen next year. I think it would be expected that he sign something longer and more costly than Castellanos last year.

[Carp]

A Pederson/Duvall platoon would be great - not arguing that it wouldn't. The question is where does the money for that come from?

For the sake of this discussion using round numbers, 2021 commitments are around $82 million and an expectation for Opening day 2021 payroll is ~ $115-$120 million - leaving AA $30-$35 million to spend.

Duvall, Dansby, and Fried will get pretty significant raises which will eat up $8 million (?) or more. $27 million left.

Re-sign Melancon for $8 million. $19 million left.

Veteran SP for $8-$10 million. $9-$11 million left.

That doesn't leave very much to spend on a DH and platoon-mate for either Duvall or Riley (much less both). You'll also need to sign a utility IF (Camargo walks) and potentially another pen arm if you don't use Newk/Touki/Wilson/etc. out there. The DH definitely needs to be able to play passable defense in LF - at least until whenever Pache is added to the roster, and probably even after that.

The reason I like Brantley so much better than Pederson is that he DOESN'T need a platoon-mate. He can DH against lefties when Duvall is playing and take his place when he needs to sit. If you sign Pederson, he's strictly a part-time player no matter what - you're not going to let him DH against lefties so Duvall can play against them.

Unless AA goes cheap (which he hopefully can WITHOUT signing complete gambles), the money probably just isn't going to be there to have a strict platoon at either 3B or LF. Maybe the offers are incredibly low for free-agents this winter, but I can't imagine they're going to be low enough to provide the flexibility AA will need - contenders are still going to do what it takes to sign quality players rather than question marks. Maybe you get a hometown discount on a 1 year deal for Melancon, but he's not going to take $4 million. Maybe you get a solid SP like Leake on a 1 year deal since he already had a big payday, but he probably ain't taking $4 million either.

He COULD jump out there early to try to sign a DH/OF and platoon 3B or LF and hope to wait out Pitchers until the markets drop, but that puts him right back in the same spot he's been in all year - an unsettled rotation and a pen with even more question marks than in 2020 with no Melancon, Greene, or Jackson.

Why the fook would we re-sign Melancon. We have Will Smith and a slew of other closer options.

[Southcack77]

Why the fook would we re-sign Melancon. We have Will Smith and a slew of other closer options.

I just want to point out that if you let Greene and Melancon walk you might be able to replace their production in the 8th and 9th with internal options, but you'll no longer have the depth that made the Braves bullpen elite.

The only reason the Braves didn't implode is that they had a lot of quality bullpen performances this season up and down the pen. It was pretty damn lucky that everyone was having a relatively good season at the same time, but their underlying talent made it possible.

[Carp]

I just want to point out that if you let Greene and Melancon walk you might be able to replace their production in the 8th and 9th with internal options, but you'll no longer have the depth that made the Braves bullpen elite.

The only reason the Braves didn't implode is that they had a lot of quality bullpen performances this season up and down the pen. It was pretty damn lucky that everyone was having a relatively good season at the same time, but their underlying talent made it possible.

I realize this. But we already have a fairly expensive BP and we didn't sign Smith to be set-up man/swing man. Not only that, but Melancon is no spring chicken. May be we bring one of those guys back, but I would lean more on the side of cost cutting given the unknown's going into 2021. Maybe if a vaccine is approved and available by Dec. that will change. But I can't imagine teams will be lining up to pay 35 year old relievers 5-10% of their payroll during the current economy. Especially when you already have viable options.

[OcalaBrave]

For many reasons (Labor dispute, Covid, Cash crunch, internal options, other needs), I don't see the Braves going heavy on SP this offseason. Anderson and Wright have earned a spot next year. Fried is locked in. Soroka has a spot when he returns. I'm thinking a retread to compete with the kids is all that is on the shopping list at SP.

[Hudson2]

Love him. If there is not a Dh next year I hesitate.

I’m not sure many teams will want big money deals going into the work stoppage in two years.

I think he will go and we will look to strike gold three years in a row with another one year slugger deal.

I know we hit two years in a row on a slugger but trying that every year won’t work every year. Eventually we’ll have to pay somebody. Ozuna is as good of a bet as anybody in FA. He seems to be a fun teammate too.