Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[Southcack77]

The idea behind a Swanson trade is that the return is a guy 2-3 years away from contributing, but since you've been making deals like this for the last 10 years the line keeps churning out new players. It is the rays model, and I'm not sure it works for a team that isn't as poor as them.

Or you do a surplus for surplus swap, like the Indians try to do with their pitchers and crappy OFers from other teams, then hope it works out better than it has for the Indians and their always awful OF.

I don't see it as particularly likely the Braves trade Swanson to make room at SS for Shew though. Have you seen the historic FA SS class next year? It will likely be a bad time trying to peddle a 2-3 win SS with a year of control left during that frenzy. The rosterbation around here about the Braves getting Lindor or Story or Seager or Correa or Baez is going to be unbearable.

It's hard to see Dansby bringing back a huge return so my guess is that Braves just soldier on and maybe get some depth out of it.

Seems to me if that bat continues to play in AA than Shewmake should get some time at 3B/OF to make him a better depth piece (or sometime platoon).

[bravesfanMatt]

Man my AA not deserving a pass got twisted. I never said him not taking on risk was bad. He has done what he has needed to to keep us competitive. After that it is a crap shoot. But there is no denying he was blessed with a great team and farm system. He also got extremely lucky with JD. Got him the one year he decided to stay relatively healthy. Failed on Hamels and that hurt us last year. Done great on pen help and nailed Ozuna last season. You might question not trying to get better pitching at last years deadline. But then not sure who worth a damn was out there. Milone wasn’t right.

But he has done a great job over all. I just wouldn’t give the guy a pass. I don’t think you just say he done ‘x’ for 3 years so trust his process. Not when ‘x’ had a lot of help from other regimes.

[bravesfanMatt]

Are we to that cycle where we are trading Ozzie because of a prospect name TD. This Swanson chatter seems a lot like that. I see no way we trade our productive cheap SS while contending. He can walk after next year if we don’t want him. But we are paying 6 million for 2-3 wins. Why are we trading that??

[MadduxFanII]

Mets are apparently signing Taijuan Walker.

[CyYoung31]

Mets are apparently signing Taijuan Walker.

Damn good rotation if healthy.

[Super]

Man my AA not deserving a pass got twisted. I never said him not taking on risk was bad. He has done what he has needed to to keep us competitive. After that it is a crap shoot. But there is no denying he was blessed with a great team and farm system. He also got extremely lucky with JD. Got him the one year he decided to stay relatively healthy. Failed on Hamels and that hurt us last year. Done great on pen help and nailed Ozuna last season. You might question not trying to get better pitching at last years deadline. But then not sure who worth a damn was out there. Milone wasn’t right.

But he has done a great job over all. I just wouldn’t give the guy a pass. I don’t think you just say he done ‘x’ for 3 years so trust his process. Not when ‘x’ had a lot of help from other regimes.

it's not like he gets an eternal "pass" but more so i'll give him the benefit of the doubt in general. like the fact the bench is a weakness, i'm not going to panic or start criticizing him until he leaves the roster high and dry. so far he's read the market well in his time in Atlanta.
he got as "lucky" with JD as he did "unlucky" with Hamels. it's just what happens sometimes with the approach he's IMO forced to take. he's trying to build around the edges without committing too much money or too many years and it's a delicate balance.
we can't give him credit of Acuña of course but i think it's situation that can still be messed up with bad decisions. they don't win the division with JD. they don't do what they did last year without Ozuna and the solid depth. and not a single part of the future has been mortgaged. i think that's pretty damn good.

that said, i think it's fair to criticize the Milone move for example. he didn't trade much, but it was still too much and some people (not me) said so at the time, so it wasn't just hindsight. i think you could also say he failed in addressing the bullpen prior to the 2019 season and he had to correct it at the deadline as a result. last offseason, he addressed the BP early. i trust that he's learned from that, and won't leave the bench where it is right now.

[TheBravos]

Are we to that cycle where we are trading Ozzie because of a prospect name TD. This Swanson chatter seems a lot like that. I see no way we trade our productive cheap SS while contending. He can walk after next year if we don’t want him. But we are paying 6 million for 2-3 wins. Why are we trading that??

Well, you wouldn’t trade him this year. There would be a path if Dansby had a monster year (coupled with Shewmake making big strides), that you trade him his last year....especially if he has a big arb number and you think Shewmake can have close to the same production.

You could also shift Shewmake to 3rd next year if Riley doesn’t make strides this year.

If Dansby leaves as a free agent, he will likely get a contract big enough to net us a 2nd round pick. So, trading him next would only make sense if his arb number became really high.

[bravesfanMatt]

it's not like he gets an eternal "pass" but more so i'll give him the benefit of the doubt in general. like the fact the bench is a weakness, i'm not going to panic or start criticizing him until he leaves the roster high and dry. so far he's read the market well in his time in Atlanta.
he got as "lucky" with JD as he did "unlucky" with Hamels. it's just what happens sometimes with the approach he's IMO forced to take. he's trying to build around the edges without committing too much money or too many years and it's a delicate balance.
we can't give him credit of Acuña of course but i think it's situation that can still be messed up with bad decisions. they don't win the division with JD. they don't do what they did last year without Ozuna and the solid depth. and not a single part of the future has been mortgaged. i think that's pretty damn good.

that said, i think it's fair to criticize the Milone move for example. he didn't trade much, but it was still too much and some people (not me) said so at the time, so it wasn't just hindsight. i think you could also say he failed in addressing the bullpen prior to the 2019 season and he had to correct it at the deadline as a result. last offseason, he addressed the BP early. i trust that he's learned from that, and won't leave the bench where it is right now.

I agree. He has been worlds better than our last disgrace. His Acuna and Ozzie contracts are and should be his most significant victories. I too think he is learning on the job how to build on a limited budget. I would love to see what he could do with the dodgers pay roll. *here in Atlanta of course.

[bravesfanMatt]

Well, you wouldn’t trade him this year. There would be a path if Dansby had a monster year (coupled with Shewmake making big strides), that you trade him his last year....especially if he has a big arb number and you think Shewmake can have close to the same production.

You could also shift Shewmake to 3rd next year if Riley doesn’t make strides this year.

If Dansby leaves as a free agent, he will likely get a contract big enough to net us a 2nd round pick. So, trading him next would only make sense if his arb number became really high.

He can have a monster year and not jump over 10. He is at 6 this year. He won’t be that expensive next. I still say the $ to win ratio is not worth trading.

[Super]

Dansby is not being traded at this point. it's extension or free agency.

[NYCBrave]

Mets are apparently signing Taijuan Walker.

On his way to that 2.70 ERA, Walker benefited from a .243 average on balls in play and a slightly elevated 78.5 percent strand rate. His 22.2 percent strikeout rate was below the league average, as was his 39.1 percent ground-ball rate. The righty’s 93.5 mph average heater was down from its 95.1 mph peak, and his swinging-strike rate was among the lowest in the league (13th percentile, per Statcast). Fielding-independent marks like SIERA (4.60) and Statcast’s xERA (4.87) aren’t as bullish on Walker, who averaged just 4 2/3 innings per start in 2020.

[Carp]

The Walker deal from the Mets makes the Drew Smyly deal look a lot better.

[bravesfanMatt]

On his way to that 2.70 ERA, Walker benefited from a .243 average on balls in play and a slightly elevated 78.5 percent strand rate. His 22.2 percent strikeout rate was below the league average, as was his 39.1 percent ground-ball rate. The righty’s 93.5 mph average heater was down from its 95.1 mph peak, and his swinging-strike rate was among the lowest in the league (13th percentile, per Statcast). Fielding-independent marks like SIERA (4.60) and Statcast’s xERA (4.87) aren’t as bullish on Walker, who averaged just 4 2/3 innings per start in 2020.

Good info. He wasn’t great last year. That swinging strike rate is a big yikes for me.

[msstate7]

Has enscheff graded smyly's stuff?

[Enscheff]

AA is getting a pass until the Braves start the season with this terrible bench. Just like I wasn’t going to panic while options were available to fill the impact RHH role, I’m not going to panic while many bench options are left. When all was said and done, AA got an impact bat for great value for the 3rd offseason in a row, and I expect he will do the same with bench options.

I criticized the Smyly deal, as well as the Will Smith deal, so it’s not like AA is blindly congratulated for everything he does. Nobody gets a pass around here...this isn’t the cult of the orange pumpkin.

[mfree80]

Well, you wouldn’t trade him this year. There would be a path if Dansby had a monster year (coupled with Shewmake making big strides), that you trade him his last year....especially if he has a big arb number and you think Shewmake can have close to the same production.

You could also shift Shewmake to 3rd next year if Riley doesn’t make strides this year.

If Dansby leaves as a free agent, he will likely get a contract big enough to net us a 2nd round pick. So, trading him next would only make sense if his arb number became really high.

I was really glad to see the article mention Shewmake moving to 3rd as a possibility. I have been thinking that for a while.

I am not sold on Riley. Hopeful, but not sold. Even if he keeps progressing as a hitter, he would make a good LF with Shew at 3B. I wouldn't personally be all that quick to move Dansby.

[TheBravos]

I was really glad to see the article mention Shewmake moving to 3rd as a possibility. I have been thinking that for a while.

I am not sold on Riley. Hopeful, but not sold. Even if he keeps progressing as a hitter, he would make a good LF with Shew at 3B. I wouldn't personally be all that quick to move Dansby.

Riley isn’t arb eligible for until 2023. He is a great value even at current production and they will give him every chance until then.

[bravesfanMatt]

I still wonder if AA is just going to wait to the end of spring and get what he can. I think he might still think the DH could happen and also doesn’t want to grab someone for a position and then find an internal solution stepped up. Wait and asses what is needed after spring games.

[Tapate50]

I was really glad to see the article mention Shewmake moving to 3rd as a possibility. I have been thinking that for a while.

I am not sold on Riley. Hopeful, but not sold. Even if he keeps progressing as a hitter, he would make a good LF with Shew at 3B. I wouldn't personally be all that quick to move Dansby.

I think the article said that the Braves said "They'd only move him if he forced them to" and then mentioned getting quicker and faster.

[Carp]

Riley isn’t arb eligible for until 2023. He is a great value even at current production and they will give him every chance until then.

He was a negative WAR player in 2020, and according to Fangraphs has only been worth .1 WAR for his career, so I wouldn't say he is a "great value" at his current production. All in all, he's been a replacement level player up to this point in his career. We'll see if that changes, but at this point he's looking more like a lefty smashing bench bat.