Athletic has an article on 10 breakouts. Riley listed. Comped to Troy Glaus.
TG had a career slash of 254/358/489
Can Riley be 250/300/450 with average defense next year? Baseball reference has him projected at 240/307/447.
Who is taking the over on a Riley OPS of 750?
I'm hoping Contreras in AAA so he gets more PT. If TDA is down for any period of time then call up Contreras immediately. But I don't want to waste his development playing 1-2x a week.
With options maybe you could bring up Contreras to spot start some. But I think he needs to play.
JohnAdcox (02-24-2021), jpx7 (02-24-2021), zbhargrove (02-24-2021)
JohnAdcox (02-24-2021)
Glaus comps for Riley are laughable. At his peak Glaus posted seasons of 5 and 8 fWAR, and topped 3 several other times. Listing his career line that includes many of his decline seasons is not a good way to compare him to a player in his prime, and their BB rates are nowhere near each other in true talent.
I’ll take the over on a .750 OPS in 2021 for Riley though. I hoping his continues to progress, his BB rate ticks up a bit, and he comes close to being a .250/.320/.450 type of hitter. If he platoons a bit his rate line will improve automatically.
Last edited by Enscheff; 02-24-2021 at 03:21 PM.
jpx7 (02-25-2021)
They didn’t fully comp him to Glaus in the article. They said how when he first came up they thought he was like Glaus, then he dropped off quite a bit. But he has the tools to improve.
GovClintonTyree (02-24-2021)
Jack Mayfield, we hardly knew ye
jpx7 (02-25-2021)
Over the last 3 season Heredia has posted a .327 xwOBA vs LHP. Basically Camargo if he could play CF.
Ervin has posted a .295 value over the same period of time. He is pretty much unplayable.
If the goal is to find a placeholder for Pache to platoon with Ender, this new guy is far superior. My guess is he and Ender get a month or so while Pache gets some AAA reps.
Last edited by Enscheff; 02-24-2021 at 04:00 PM.
jpx7 (02-25-2021)
AA had an interview I listened to on youtube this morning. Two bald guys from 680 the fan.
He talked about them moving Albies to 8th when he was struggling a couple of years ago to help his approach. Made me think of that as a potential future plan for Waters. Your comment made me think of Riley too. Do they hit him 8th and see if that can help his approach and/or artificially raise his OBP north of 300?
Regarding Glaus, I don't know. I can recall watching him as a young player.
The Glaus comparison was the writer's, not mine.
Looking at baseball reference, age 23 (Riley's age in 2021) was the year Glaus took off.
Glaus appear to have always had a better OBP than Riley. Is that talent? Is that Riley's famous slow bat speed? Is that Riley the guess hitter? Is that Glaus' era vs Riley's era of more information? I don't know.
I have watched most of Riley's at bats and I cannot see Riley ever putting up a 400 OBP like Glaus did. I'm not sure I can see Riley ever hitting a 350 OBP, and Glaus' average OBP was 358.
I see Riley as a 220-250/300-320/425-525 slugging. The only way I see Riley being a long term regular is if he can get his slugging percentage to 500 plus or minus 25. He's a better athlete than he looks and he's got to be a doubles and HR machine. 500 slugging is asking a lot, but I don't see another path to 800+ OPS.
jpx7 (02-25-2021)
zbhargrove (02-24-2021)
This is the kind of stupid stuff spewed out on these silly shows that makes fans dumber. Albies has never changed his approach, and he was batting 8th because he was struggling...and we all know how Snit reacts to the "hot hand" nonsense. The same reason why Acuna bats leadoff because that one time he broke out of a slump when he moved the leadoff slot, so he has to bat leadoff despite being exactly as productive there as in any other spot in the lineup.
What matters for Riley is how often he swings at bad pitches, and how much contact he makes in the zone. Whether he bats 6th or 8th he still has to make the same improvements.
We saw real improvements from Riley in 2020, and I hope to see real improvements in 2021. With guys like Ender or Pache in the lineup, Riley should never be batting 8th. Stick him in the 6th/7th slot, and let him get better....or not. If not, Jake Lamb gets some time. If Lamb fails, then the Braves go shopping at the deadline.