Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[msstate7]

Wonder what hamels would cost us. Assuming we see he should be good to go

[Freshmaker]

I'd gladly take a Waino return to be a 4/5 on a reasonable deal, but agree with everyone else that Molina makes no sense. We have TDA already under contract, so with budget constraints the correct move is to go with Contreras as C2

[clvclv]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/...y-in-2021.html

Looking like the Twins are considering non-tendering Rosario (as I mentioned earlier).

Really hope AA's looking at this the way I have - he'd be a perfect fit on what would amount to a one year deal. He's projected to make $10.75 million in his last year of arbitration. Put him in LF, move d'Arnaud into the #3 hole, and hit Rosario 4th. Unlike Pederson, Rosario doesn't need a platoon partner, so you move Duvall to RF and could conceivably make the platoon work with what you have. Ender plays CF against RHPs only with Acuna moving to CF when Duvall plays. Almonte becomes the 5th OF (can play all 3 positions and is a switch-hitter), so you DFA him after you've gotten the extra year of control over Pache back.

Minnesota's obviously on the hunt for pitching anyway, and if they're going to non-tender Rosario to save money anyway it won't likely take an arm that still figures into our long-term plans to get them to let us take on Rosario's money. Call and offer Newk for Rosario - that way you don't have to create a 40-Man Roster spot for him.

[clvclv]

2021 Free-Agents:
3B - Justin Turner ($19 million)
OF - George Springer ($21 million)
OF - Michael Brantley ($16 million)
OF - Joc Pederson ($7.75 million)
OF - Mark Canha ($4.8 million)
UT - Tommy LaStella ($3.25 million)
DH - Nelson Cruz ($12 million) - Looking for a 2 year deal

SP- Trevor Bauer ($17.5 million)
SP - Masahiro Tanaka ($23 million)
SP - Jake Odorizzi ($17.8 million)
SP - James Paxton ($12.5 million)
SP - Marcus Stroman ($12 million) - Given Qualifying Offer
SP - Jose Quintana ($10.5 million)
SP - Mike Minor ($9.5 million)
SP - Robbie Ray ($9.43 million)
SP - Kevin Gausman ($5.3 million) - Given Qualifying Offer
SP - Taijuan Walker ($2 million)
RP - Blake Treinen ($10 million)
RP - Ken Giles ($9.6 million)
RP - Liam Hendriks ($5.3 million)
RP - Keone Kela ($3.725 million)
RP - Brandon Workman ($3.5 million)
RP - Tony Watson ($3 million)
RP - Trevor Rosenthal ($2 million)
RP - T. J. McFarland ($1.8 million)
RP - Greg Holland ($1.25 million) - Royals looking to re-sign him
RP - Jeremy Jeffress ($850K)



2021 Final Year Of Arbitration Or Team Options:
C - Wilson Ramos ($10,000,000)
C - Robinson Chirinos ($6,500,000)
C - Mike Zunino ($4,500,000)
1B/DH - Carlos Santana ($17,500,000)
1B/DH - Edwin Encarnacion ($12,000,000)
1B/DH - Daniel Murphy ($8,000,000)
1B/3B/DH - Todd Frazier ($5,750,000)
1B/DH - Eric Thames ($4,000,000)
2B - Kolten Wong ($12,500,000)
2B/OF - Dee Strange-Gordon ($13,500,000)
2B/3B/LF - Marwin Gonzalez ($9,000,000)
2B/3B - Eric Sogard ($4,500,000)
2B/3B - Howie Kendrick ($4,000,000)
2B/3B - Daniel Descalso ($1,500,000)
3B - Brock Holt ($3,250,000)
3B - Jedd Gyorko ($1,000,000)
LF - Bret Gardner ($10,000,000)
RF - Adam Eaton ($9,500,000)
LF/DH - Eddie Rosario ($7,500,000)
LF - Ben Gamel ($1,400,000)

SP - Jake Arrieta ($20,000,000)
SP - Corey Kluber ($18,000,000)
SP - J. A. Happ ($17,000,000)
SP - Jon Lester ($15,000,000) - Looking to work out a return to Cubs per XM interview
SP - Mike Leake ($15,000,000)
SP - Charlie Morton ($15,000,000)
SP - Anibal Sanchez ($12,000,000)
SP - Chris Archer ($11,000,000)
SP - Chase Anderson ($9,250,000)
SP - Gio Gonzalez ($7,000,000)
SP - Martin Perez ($6,500,000)
RP - David Robertson ($12,000,000)
RP - Brad Hand ($10,000,000)
RP - Roberto Osuna ($10,000,000)
RP - Hector Neris ($7,000,000)
RP - Steve Cishek ($6,750,000)
RP - Sergio Romo ($5,000,000)
RP - Brandon Kintzler ($3,250,0000 - Marlins trying to bring him back on a cheaper deal
RP - Darren O'Day ($3,500,000)
RP - Tommy Kahnle ($2,650,000)



*** Salaries listed are what they were due to make in 2020 ***

*** Bold = Option Not Picked Up ***

(Updated as of 5:50 PM - 11/01/2020)

[Hudson2]

The market looks like it will be flooded with talent. We should be able to field a WS contender within our budget. It’s gonna be fun to see how AA works with all these guys being released.

[bravesfanforlife88]

I’d take a flier on Chris Archer. 1 year deal with him and Wainwright. Could give us an awesome rotation

Soroka
Fried
Anderson
Wainwright
Archer

Allows you to use Wright and Wilson in the pen.

[bravesfanforlife88]

I was interested in Stroman but the Mets gave him the QO...now I’m out on him

[chop2chip]

Giving Stroman a QO in this market is a strong indicator that the Mets are going to go bananas in free agency.

[bravesfanforlife88]

Giving Stroman a QO in this market is a strong indicator that the Mets are going to go bananas in free agency.

They definitely have the ability to do so this offseason. But I think you will see a ton of 1 year deals because the players will know the market is depressed. So they take a 1 year deal, hoping revenues rebound next season and hit the market then.

[PawPawMaxwell]

I’d take a flier on Chris Archer. 1 year deal with him and Wainwright. Could give us an awesome rotation

Soroka
Fried
Anderson
Wainwright
Archer

Allows you to use Wright and Wilson in the pen.

Im a bit uncomfortable with Wainwrights age and likewise with Archers recent health issues. Also would prefer another LH starter is one is available and affordable. Of course AA hasnt asked me yet.

[Southcack77]

Giving Stroman a QO in this market is a strong indicator that the Mets are going to go bananas in free agency.

I guess I wildly underestimated how much money he'd have gotten in normal market.

Saw Law put 20m AAV on him and that would have shocked me in a normal environment.

I guess Mets putting a QO on him can't hurt Mets much but seems an overpay.

Saw where they don't expect him to accept, but I'd guess he would. .

[clvclv]

I guess I wildly underestimated how much money he'd have gotten in normal market.

Saw Law put 20m AAV on him and that would have shocked me in a normal environment.

I guess Mets putting a QO on him can't hurt Mets much but seems an overpay.

Saw where they don't expect him to accept, but I'd guess he would. .

3 years at $15 million AAV is slightly better than 1 year at $19 million.

[clvclv]

If AA signs Wainright (or another SP) and trades something for Rosario early, all the heavy-lifting is done (which has been his M. O.).

At that point, he can wait out the market for pen arms, backup SSs, and platoon partners for Riley (Marwin Gonzalez might be an inexpensive target for that role).

[Southcack77]

Gausman got a QO?

The market is saying weird things about starting pitching.

[Tapate50]

Gausman got a QO?

The market is saying weird things about starting pitching.

They want to sign him to a longer deal

[chop2chip]

Gausman got a QO?

The market is saying weird things about starting pitching.

This is so strange. Gausman is one of those guys whose metrics never match results. Well except for this year. He was great, but Giants are definitely betting on a short sample.

[Enscheff]

Gausman’s lack of results in Atlanta during the early part of the 2019 season were a result of horrible LOB and BABIP luck. I stated over and over at the time he was much better than his results indicated.

Now he’s back to being the same middle of the rotation arm he’s always been.

I’m glad things worked out for him, but if the Giants are about to pay him as anything more than a ~3 win guy, they deserve what’s coming.

[50PoundHead]

Giving Stroman a QO in this market is a strong indicator that the Mets are going to go bananas in free agency.

I think giving Stroman the QO is a pretty good indication that he'll be pitching for the Mets next season. Same with Gausman and the Giants.

I predicted a flood of guys hitting the open market and the teams not picking up options is the first wave. We still have the non-tenders coming up. The market is going to be flooded, which might be a heyday for bargain hunters, but we really won't know that until the big market teams set the price on the top end guys. Like others have said, I think we're going to see a ton of one-year deals for reasonable AAVs, but if the big market teams put the stake in the ground at the border of unreasonable, it's going to be a late-breaking market.

Carp mentioned above the possibility of players having a work stoppage. If salaries tank and if CoVID sticks around into 2021, we may see another truncated season anyway. With negotiations on the new CBA around the corner, nothing would surprise me.

As per Eddie Rosario, I'd be a bit beware. He's kind of a nickel-brain. Discounting his horrible 2020, Joc Pederson is the better offensive player, but it is true that one needs a platoon partner with him.

On another note, just was in Atlanta over the weekend and WTF is with your guys' street system?

[Tapate50]

On another note, just was in Atlanta over the weekend and WTF is with your guys' street system?

You gotta just pick the right peachtree and you are fine.

[Southcack77]

MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Projections:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com


Notable:

Ozuna Nationals. Four years, $72MM. 18 AAV.

Brantley Braves. Two years, $28MM. 14 AAV.

Lester Braves. One year, $5MM.

Mark Melancon – Braves. One year, $4MM.




Some other numbers I like:

Justin Turner – Dodgers. Two years, $24MM. 12 AAV.

Joc Pederson – Cardinals. Two years, $18MM. 9 AAV.

Charlie Morton – Mets. One year, $8MM.



Names to watch:

Jackie Bradley Jr. – Astros. Two years, $16MM. 8 AAV. Bear with me. Decent LH split, can cover any OF position including excellent defense in CF to stave off Pache. A little bit too much money, but a prime reason why extending Ender was unwise. There are always defensive options available in the price range.

Garrett Richards – Phillies. Two years, $16MM. 8 AAV.
Mike Minor – Angels. One year, $6MM.
Chris Archer – Cubs. One year, $4MM.
Cole Hamels – Padres. One year, $4MM.
Adam Wainwright – Cardinals. One year, $6MM.

Kirby Yates – Padres. One year, $5MM.
Brad Hand – Astros. Two years, $14MM. 7 AAV