Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[Super]

Heyman said Arenado is just as much available as Lindor is but cant see anyone take on that contract in this climate.

the fact Arenado has that contract is exactly why he is not as valuable as Lindor.

[Super]

Per year, if Ray got 8, Morton should nearly double that even in his economy.

i think Ray will be seen as a clear overpay once this offseason is said and done.
i think Southcack is right that there will be plenty of backend pitching options available later in the offseason. no need to be a market-setter in this offseason.

[Southcack77]

i think Ray will be seen as a clear overpay once this offseason is said and done.
i think Southcack is right that there will be plenty of backend pitching options available later in the offseason. no need to be a market-setter in this offseason.

It seems to me in a normal market Morton would be worth more than 8m. In this market it seems like he should be worth more than Ray.

But, Morton is an old pitcher, presumably in decline, who is nearing the very end of his career. And Morton in the past has seemingly limited his market by threatening to retire or cutting his choices to specific areas. So maybe Atlanta is on his special list for a reasonable number. I don't know. If I'm Atlanta he's the one year deal that I would most be pursuing.

[Carp]

I don't view 8 million as an overpay if the market is getting back to normal with the vaccine news. That's likely about what Ray gets in a normal off-season.

[Carp]

Another guy I have interest in is Jose Quintana. I think some team will strike gold with him over the next couple of years. With Stroman essentially off the board, he's my number 2 option now behind Morton.

[Carp]

As for Chris Archer, 100% expect him to go to Houston and become the new Gerrit Cole

[Enscheff]

2019-2020 batters faced and xwOBA for the FA SPs I randomly picked as "interesting" (.320 is roughly average MLB SP):


Charlie Morton 960 0.283
GTrevor Bauer 1188 0.293
Marcus Stroman 773 0.298
James Paxton 723 0.299
Mike Minor 1101 0.303
Kevin Gausman 693 0.310
Jake Odorizzi 718 0.311
Masahiro Tanaka956 0.317
Adam Wainwright 1000 0.329
Jose Quintana 786 0.331
Corey Kluber 171 0.338
Jon Lester 1029 0.343
Chris Archer 524 0.352
Alex Wood 217 0.366

Anyone below Tanaka probably isn't going to make an impact, but guys like Waino/Quin are decent back end options.

Kluber and Wood haven't pitched much, and Paxton is a TJ surgery waiting to happen with that "flexor strain".

Bauer is going to be too expensive, and something odd happened with Gaus that tells me he isn't coming back.

That leaves Morton, Stroman, Minor, Odorizzi, Tanaka, with Waino and Quintana on the low end.

I agree with folks who say Morton for 1 year should be the top target.

[Super]

I don't view 8 million as an overpay if the market is getting back to normal with the vaccine news. That's likely about what Ray gets in a normal off-season.

regardless of what happens for next season (which we will have no idea about until months from now), this past season *did* happen already. teams already lost a ton of revenue. a prospective full season next year won't come close to making up for that, and i think having a full season is pretty unlikely.

[Heyward]

Sounds like Mets gonna be big spenders this winter.

[Enscheff]

I wonder if we will see contracts with clauses tied to what happens with attendance, number of games played, and other issues that could affect team revenue.

It’s very likely the Braves could have $50M to spend if 100% attendance is allowed and $0 to spend if limited attendance is allowed. So the ability to tie contacts to those unknowns could be useful.

[clvclv]

2019-2020 batters faced and xwOBA for the FA SPs I randomly picked as "interesting" (.320 is roughly average MLB SP):


Charlie Morton 960 0.283
GTrevor Bauer 1188 0.293
Marcus Stroman 773 0.298
James Paxton 723 0.299
Mike Minor 1101 0.303
Kevin Gausman 693 0.310
Jake Odorizzi 718 0.311
Masahiro Tanaka956 0.317
Adam Wainwright 1000 0.329
Jose Quintana 786 0.331
Corey Kluber 171 0.338
Jon Lester 1029 0.343
Chris Archer 524 0.352
Alex Wood 217 0.366

Anyone below Tanaka probably isn't going to make an impact, but guys like Waino/Quin are decent back end options.

Kluber and Wood haven't pitched much, and Paxton is a TJ surgery waiting to happen with that "flexor strain".

Bauer is going to be too expensive, and something odd happened with Gaus that tells me he isn't coming back.

That leaves Morton, Stroman, Minor, Odorizzi, Tanaka, with Waino and Quintana on the low end.

I agree with folks who say Morton for 1 year should be the top target.

Just have to wonder if anyone on that list is actually going to fit given AA's likely budget concerns. FanGraphs projects EVERYONE in that group will not only get $10 million AAV or more other than Morton and Wainright - and they don't even have a projection for Morton yet - but that they'll all get multi-year deals other than Wainright too. If we play the hopeful game and assume that he's working with a $130 million limit rather than $120 million and assume that Riley will be given a regular role, can he really spend $10+ million on a SP without the offense taking a huge hit? With Camargo, Jackson, and Dayton on the roster (as they are right now) payroll stands at a little over $95.5 million - both the bullpen and offense are substantially weaker, and you still need a backup C and SS. EVERYBODY needs SP help, and as you laid out, there aren't many difference-makers available - regardless of price.

I'd argue we need a LH hitting OF option more than anything else - probably even more than an Ozuna return. Will AA really spend $20 million+ on a platoon guy (Pederson) and an older SP (again)? Pederson's likely going to get a multi-year deal, meaning he isn't even an option as a full-time DH if/when Waters arrives (and whenever the DH is actually here for good). Strictly personal preference (and only a guess), but if he's going to play on impactful guys and roll the dice that he can fill out the roster on the cheap, isn't the play you make for Brantley if you don't make a trade? Even if you have to give him the 3/$45 million FanGraphs projects, he 1.) needs NO platoon partner, and 2.) can become a full-time DH whenever Waters gets here. You can afford him (in 2021 at least) by non-tendering Duvall - especially if there's no DH this year. That would make him a $9.25 million payroll outlay this season.

If you go that route, you can still spend $10+ million on a SP, bring in a backup C (if he chooses), SS, another pen arm, and possibly even a LH alternative to Riley. The problem is the actual payroll limit - that's going to be all but impossible if that limit is in the $120 million range.

[Enscheff]

I am going to assume that FG and MLBTR did not correctly discount FAs when they made their projections. They discounted RPs, and then decided those were the only players who would be affected. The list of arbitration non-tenders will be extremely telling. If modestly priced position players are also cut loose rather than being traded we know there's no money anywhere.

[Enscheff]

Then there's this group of fools who have no idea what they are blabbering about:

The guy named Doc thinks the Braves should sign Ozuna, Morton AND Quintana.

If this is what semi-serious Braves fans read as their source of "expert info", no wonder there are so many ignorant posts all over the place. Most of them peddle the "trade Inciarte" idea as if any team is going to be willing to pay him. Then they pat each other on the back agreeing that signing Freeman to a Goldschmidt extension (5/130) is a good idea.

Ivan is literally the only contributor worth a damn, and I agree when he says $/WAR will be around $6.5M per.

[clvclv]

Then there's this group of fools who have no idea what they are blabbering about:

http://cspjira:8080/jira/browse/GMSCPL-10191

The guy named Doc thinks the Braves should sign Ozuna, Morton AND Quintana.

If this is what semi-serious Braves fans read as their source of "expert info", no wonder there are so many ignorant posts all over the place. Most of them peddle the "trade Inciarte" idea as if any team is going to be willing to pay him. Then they pat each other on the back agreeing that signing Freeman to a Goldschmidt extension (5/130) is a good idea.

Ivan is literally the only contributor worth a damn, and I agree when he says $/WAR will be around $6.5M per.

Link doesn't work.

[drewdat]

https://www.talkingchop.com/2020/11/...tions-and-more

[NYCBrave]

Sounds like Mets gonna be big spenders this winter.

From where things currently stand, are we in the biggest spending division? That's pretty annoying.

[bravesfanforlife88]

Stroman has accepted the Mets QO. That will make the most sense for him.

After opting out of the season, he gets a 1 year prove it contract at ~$19m, way more than he would have gotten on the open market for a similar deal. Then can hit the market next offseason.

[Russ2dollas]

Stroman has accepted the Mets QO. That will make the most sense for him.

After opting out of the season, he gets a 1 year prove it contract at ~$19m, way more than he would have gotten on the open market for a similar deal. Then can hit the market next offseason.

Great deal for the Mets IMO. Suggests he thinks it is going to be very tough out there.

[Enscheff]

Link doesn't work.

That's because I accidentally pasted in a defect link from work haha

[Enscheff]

Stroman has accepted the Mets QO. That will make the most sense for him.

After opting out of the season, he gets a 1 year prove it contract at ~$19m, way more than he would have gotten on the open market for a similar deal. Then can hit the market next offseason.

MLBTR projected him at 4/68, for an AAV of $17M. He instead chose to take 1/19 from the Mets, who are pretty horrible at managing player health. They are pretty much the last team I would want to be on during a 1 year prove-it contract.

This is a pretty good sign that MLBTR's projections are high for everyone but RPs (who they already discounted based on the Hand fiasco).